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Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Hornsea 4 cancellation adds to uncertainty

Ørsted today announced it is cancelling development of the 2.4GW Hornsea 4 project off the UK due to increased supply chain costs, higher interest rates, and greater construction and operational risk (FID was expected later in 2025). The cancellation adds to uncertainty for the offshore wind services industry and overall project profitability within offshore wind. No installation contracts for Hornsea 4 had been disclosed yet, but with Cadeler responsible for foundations and half the turbines on...

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Takeaways from WindEurope

At the WindEurope event in Copenhagen, we met with companies representing approximately 75% of the global offshore wind installation fleet, gaining insights that support a constructive outlook for the sector. Addressing recent investor concerns related to market growth, the industry has already reflected and anticipated recent downward adjustments in third-party forecasts. With respect to a slowdown ahead in the US market, a second investor concern lately, near-term vessel demand could surprise ...

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Seaway 7 (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Discontinuing coverage

We have discontinued coverage of Seaway 7, following its acquisition by Subsea 7. Our last published recommendation, target price and estimates should no longer be relied upon.

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Havfram wins parts of Hornsea 3 turbine work

Havfram today announced its maiden newbuild turbine installation contract for Osted’s Hornsea 3 project. Following recent talks about potential Hornsea 3 delays or even cancellation, we consider it positive for the industry that the project is progressing (in particular for Cadeler, which has the foundation installation contract). Havfram did not comment on contract economics, but as this job is its maiden newbuild contract and provides for decent duration (1 year), we see annualised EBITDA of c...

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Vestas says turbines are big enough

Vestas’ CEO said in an interview that wind turbines are big enough for now. We believe a key investor concern surrounding WTIV companies (Cadeler, Eneti) has been that turbine sizes will outgrow vessel capabilities (as they have in the past), and that Vestas now signalling a slowdown of growth could ease this concern. Hence, we consider the comments from Vestas to be positive for WTIV companies as it reduces the risk of the current high-end installation assets becoming obsolete.

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Havfram’s entry confirmed

Havfram’s entry into the offshore wind installation market has been confirmed today, as it announced its first newbuild WTIV order with CIMC Raffles in China, with options for more vessels. Its entry had been expected for some time, as Havfram last year signed an LOI with CIMC Raffles for a “series” of vessels and last month secured USD250m from Sandbrook Capital (PE) to fund its newbuild programme. Havfram today said it has raised another USD250m in equity from PSP Investments (via Sandbrook Ca...

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Havfram ownership change suggests newbuild move forward

Private equity company Sandbrook Capital has acquired HitecVision’s majority stake in Havfram’s offshore wind business and committed to investing USD250m in new equity, according to a press release by HitecVision today. The new equity will be used to finance a series of wind turbine installation vessels (WTIV) newbuilds, which are set to increase competition in the high-end WTIV segment (although we still await clarity of the number of vessels and specifications). Havfram has previously been voc...

Haakon Amundsen ... (+2)
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen

Seaway 7 - Q2 a tad weaker, financing plan in Q3

Adj. EBITDA USD 14m, cons. at USD17m Gross cash of only USD 11m Investors better wait for the financing plan

Haakon Amundsen ... (+2)
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen

Seaway 7 - Downgraded to HOLD (Buy)

A longer-than-expected waiting game Other wind service shares look better near-term Down to HOLD (Buy), TP of NOK 12 (15)

Haakon Amundsen ... (+2)
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen

Seaway 7 - Profit warning and lower 22’ guidance

Multiple project issues (delays and higher costs) New 2022 EBITDA margin guidance 6% (10%) 2022e EBITDA likely down 25-30%

Haakon Amundsen ... (+2)
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen

Seaway 7 - Only minor estimate changes post Q1

Q1 was basically as expected Focus is on new contracts We like the case. BUY, TP to NOK 15 (20)

Adrian Gilani ... (+5)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Karl Fredrik Schjøtt-Pedersen
  • Olof Cederholm

Powerpoint Sector Report - Renewable Weekly - Theme of the week: Nordi...

Great growth opportunities for Nordic renewable companies Offshore wind and energy storage are key for the transition Solid week for Nordic renewable shares

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

Maersk entry for turbine installation confirmed

Maersk Supply Service has entered the offshore turbine installation market with a feeder-capable newbuild set to enter the market in 2025, backed by a contract with Equinor and BP for the Empire Wind development in the US. The vessel design features an innovative docking system to unload turbine components from barges, making the solution Jones Act-compliant when paired with US-built barges. Newbuild costs are likely higher than conventional turbine installation vessels, and the advantages of th...

Haakon Amundsen ... (+2)
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen

Seaway 7 - Strong Q4 and even better outlook

Q4 showed the company’s potential 2022-23e EBITDA up 33% and 3% A clear BUY, but TP down to 20 (25)

Adrian Gilani ... (+5)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Karl Fredrik Schjøtt-Pedersen
  • Olof Cederholm

Powerpoint Sector Report - Renewable Weekly: Theme of the week - US of...

The New York Bight auction attracted record-high bids Significant increase in price and bidders over time Strong week for Nordic renewable shares

Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen

More clarity in Norway

The Norwegian government has split Utsira Nord (floating) and Sørlige Nordsjø II (bottom-fixed) into smaller areas (5–6) and introduced a two-step phasing of the bottom-fixed area. As the power will be for domestic use, subsidies may be required at Sørlige Nordsjø II as power prices are lower in Norway than in Europe. With 37 companies announcing their interest, we still see a competitive bidding process.

Adrian Gilani ... (+5)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Karl Fredrik Schjøtt-Pedersen
  • Olof Cederholm

Powerpoint Sector Report - Theme of the week: Renewable return targets

Comparing Orsted, Equinor and Scatec's return guidance Are the return targets too optimistic? Soft week for Nordic renewable shares

Adrian Gilani ... (+5)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Karl Fredrik Schjøtt-Pedersen
  • Olof Cederholm

Powerpoint Sector Report - Theme of the week: Q4e for Swedish Wind dev...

Strong Q4 for OX2 (BUY) – led by 455 MW project sale Arise boosted by electricity prices, Eolus hit by delay Soft week for Nordic renewable shares

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