reports
- Liberum Research Team
- Liberum Research Team
- Adam Tomlinson
- Anubhav Malhotra
- Wayne Brown
LIBERUM: Moonpig - FY23E guidance reiterated; FY24E expected to be in ...
Today’s FY23E guidance reiteration and optimistic outlook for FY24E should provide a short-term boost for the shares which have fallen 15% this month, 40% since late last year and c.75% since IPO (Feb 2021). The market feared a guidance cut (following December’s sales, but not profit, cut) and the stock has become one of retail’s most shorted – these factors could exacerbate any short-term bounce. We like Moonpig for its c. 70% online market shares, best-in-class c.25-26% EBITDA margin and FCF g...
- Liberum Research Team
- Liberum Research Team
- Adam Tomlinson
- Anubhav Malhotra
- Wayne Brown
LIBERUM: Moonpig - Expecting a reiteration of FY23E guidance
We expect Thursday’s update to reiterate FY23E (y/e April) adj. EBITDA guidance, given that postal strikes will not have disrupted Mother’s Day or Easter. This should be a positive short-term catalyst for the depressed share price, with any bounce potentially exacerbated by the closure of short positions. Longer-term, progress on the key growth drivers (active customer numbers, purchase frequency, gift attachment rate) is needed for a material re-rating. The shares have fallen 15% this month and...
- Liberum Research Team
- Liberum Research Team
- Liberum Research Team
- Adam Tomlinson
- Anubhav Malhotra
- Wayne Brown
LIBERUM: Moonpig - Initiation - High quality, but not without risk
There is a lot to like – c.70% online greetings cards market shares, c.25% EBITDA margins and c.£50m of FCF p.a. But we question if it gets any better from here, with some clear risks. That said, with the shares down c.75% since IPO, we think these are more than discounted in the current price, hence our BUY. Relatively, we would advise loading up on Card Factory, where we see ongoing recovery and growth offering much greater upside for the UK’s market leader.
Increased risk weighs on MOONPIG GROUP, penalising its rating down to...
The independent financial analyst theScreener just lowered the general evaluation of MOONPIG GROUP (GB), active in the Specialty Retailers industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title still shows 0 out of 4 possible stars. Its market behaviour, however, has slightly deteriorated and will be qualified as risky moving forward. theScreener considers that these new qualifications justify an overall rating downgrade to Negative. As of the analysis date March 22, 2022, the closing price w...
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