The company recently announced a fully recruited HeROPA trial and we expect 6-month data in Q3 2024. We have made minor revisions to our nutraceutical sales estimates and maintain our neutral view on the stock. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK10 target price.
As communicated by management in H1, the HeROPA phase IIb clinical trial is active in all five planned countries participating in the trial. It had indicated a 6-month inclusion period of the 519 patients; we are approaching six months since the first patient was included (end-January 2023 in the UK), and have concerns that the recruitment period will continue for still some time. Following a further revision of timelines for the company’s pharmaceutical development efforts, we have cut our targ...
Although we believe the company has appealing long-term prospects, we see no potential share-price catalysts for the next 12 months. Following a change of analyst and on our lowered estimates for HRO350 (pharmaceutical business), we have downgraded the stock to HOLD (BUY) and cut our target price to NOK17 (60).
The company issued a planned trading update for Q4 on 18 February (the full report for 2021 is expected on 7 April). We have not updated our forecasts based on the trading update, since the company released only selected numbers. Sales for Q4 were slightly lower than we expected and the adj. EBITDA loss was also bigger. Guidance for 2022 was reasonably in line with our forecast. We reiterate our BUY and NOK60 target price.
On 14 January, Arctic Bioscience announced there would be a change of CEO during Q1. We see no drama – while the current CEO has been instrumental in taking the company to the current point, a new leg of the journey will commence in 2022e as the large phase II trial in psoriasis is set to be initiated. We reiterate our BUY and NOK60 target price.
Arctic Bioscience reported H1 earnings on 26 August. The company is moving in the right direction and is on track to start the phase IIb trial in mild/moderate psoriasis in Q1 2022. Sales trends for its nutraceuticals are on track as is its new production facility in Ørsta. The burn rate was in line with previous guidance and the company reiterated all guidance comments for this year. We reiterate our BUY and NOK60 target price.
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