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Geir Hiller Holom
  • Geir Hiller Holom

Arctic Bioscience (Hold, TP: NOK10.00) - HeROPA readout expected in Q3

The company recently announced a fully recruited HeROPA trial and we expect 6-month data in Q3 2024. We have made minor revisions to our nutraceutical sales estimates and maintain our neutral view on the stock. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK10 target price.

Geir Hiller Holom
  • Geir Hiller Holom

Arctic Bioscience (Hold, TP: NOK10.00) - Patient recruitment is key co...

As communicated by management in H1, the HeROPA phase IIb clinical trial is active in all five planned countries participating in the trial. It had indicated a 6-month inclusion period of the 519 patients; we are approaching six months since the first patient was included (end-January 2023 in the UK), and have concerns that the recruitment period will continue for still some time. Following a further revision of timelines for the company’s pharmaceutical development efforts, we have cut our targ...

Geir Hiller Holom ... (+5)
  • Geir Hiller Holom
  • Martin Arnell
  • Miika Ihamaki
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Patrik Ling
Adam Karlsson ... (+2)
  • Adam Karlsson
  • Jakob Lembke

Arctic Bioscience - H1’22 report

HRO350 ph2b: first patient expected in Q4’22e Nutra +40% vs H2’21, Sales 14.4m EBITDA -14.4m 2023 guidance sales 33-38m EBITDA -30-35m

Geir Hiller Holom ... (+9)
  • Geir Hiller Holom
  • Jesper Ingildsen
  • Martin Arnell
  • Martin Hoang Nguyen
  • Niclas Gehin
  • Ole Martin Westgaard
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Steffen Evjen
Geir Hiller Holom
  • Geir Hiller Holom

Arctic Bioscience (Hold, TP: NOK17.00) - Holding zone

Although we believe the company has appealing long-term prospects, we see no potential share-price catalysts for the next 12 months. Following a change of analyst and on our lowered estimates for HRO350 (pharmaceutical business), we have downgraded the stock to HOLD (BUY) and cut our target price to NOK17 (60).

Patrik Ling
  • Patrik Ling

Arctic Bioscience (Buy, TP: NOK60.00) - Q4 trading update

The company issued a planned trading update for Q4 on 18 February (the full report for 2021 is expected on 7 April). We have not updated our forecasts based on the trading update, since the company released only selected numbers. Sales for Q4 were slightly lower than we expected and the adj. EBITDA loss was also bigger. Guidance for 2022 was reasonably in line with our forecast. We reiterate our BUY and NOK60 target price.

Adam Karlsson ... (+3)
  • Adam Karlsson
  • Jakob Lembke
  • Marit Olsen

Arctic Bioscience - Q4 operational update

HRO350 phase 2b patient enrolment to start mid’22 22 guidance: Sales NOK 30-40m, EBITDA neg. -30-40m Mgmt changes: New CEO from March 1

Patrik Ling
  • Patrik Ling

Arctic Bioscience (Buy, TP: NOK60.00) - Change at the helm

On 14 January, Arctic Bioscience announced there would be a change of CEO during Q1. We see no drama – while the current CEO has been instrumental in taking the company to the current point, a new leg of the journey will commence in 2022e as the large phase II trial in psoriasis is set to be initiated. We reiterate our BUY and NOK60 target price.

Patrik Ling
  • Patrik Ling

Arctic Bioscience (Buy, TP: NOK60.00) - Moving forward as planned

Arctic Bioscience reported H1 earnings on 26 August. The company is moving in the right direction and is on track to start the phase IIb trial in mild/moderate psoriasis in Q1 2022. Sales trends for its nutraceuticals are on track as is its new production facility in Ørsta. The burn rate was in line with previous guidance and the company reiterated all guidance comments for this year. We reiterate our BUY and NOK60 target price.

Adam Karlsson ... (+4)
  • Adam Karlsson
  • Jakob Lembke
  • Marit Olsen
  • Viktor Sundberg

Arctic Bioscience - Going in the right direction

Pharma on track and 51% growth in Nutra >40% growth outlook for ‘21e Reiterate BUY with SOTP-based TP of NOK 54 (57)

Marit Olsen ... (+3)
  • Marit Olsen
  • Rickard Anderkrans
  • Viktor Sundberg

Arctic Bioscience - Pharma develops according to plan

Sales below but adj. EBITDA in line Pharma business according to plan No major revisions expected

Marit Olsen ... (+3)
  • Marit Olsen
  • Rickard Anderkrans
  • Viktor Sundberg

Arctic Bioscience - A great catch

A strong case with solid support Promising clinical results for psoriasis drug HRO350 We initiate with a BUY recommendation, TP of NOK 57

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