Arctic Bioscience (No_rec, TP: NOK) - HeROPA-trial 1-year read-out

Arctic Bioscience announced 52-week results for the HeROPA trial (mild to moderate psoriasis). The results did not include detailed data and only a very limited number of the predefined secondary endpoints were described. It plans to present the full set of data from the study when the Clinical Study Report is ready in June. Based on the lack of detailed data, it is hard to draw conclusions, but based on what was presented, we view this as another setback for the company.

Arctic Bioscience (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Recommendation and target price ...

While the 6-month HeROPA results did not include detailed data, it was clear that the trial did not meet the primary endpoint. This is a dramatic setback for the company, in our view, since it significantly questions the technology’s benefit as a pharmaceutical. As a result of the company’s financial situation (we estimate available liquidity to Q1 2025) and limited available information on the potential financing alternatives the company is considering for further funding, we have withdrawn our...

Arctic Bioscience (Hold, TP: NOK15.00) - HeROPA-trial results

Arctic Bioscience announced results for the HeROPA trial (mild-to moderate psoriasis). While the results did not include detailed data, it was clear that the trial did not meet the primary endpoint (The proportion of patients with ≥50% reduction in Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI50) from baseline to week 26). The failure to meet the primary endpoint was partly explained by an unexpectedly high effect rate in the placebo group (comparisons between HRO350 2,100 mg and placebo, and HRO350 1...

Arctic Bioscience (Hold, TP: NOK15.00) - Set for HeROPA-trial readout

Arctic Bioscience announced that the 6-month primary endpoint readout from the HeROPA trial is expected at end-September/in early October. We see this as a key event for the company and crucial for its plans within the psoriasis segment. After adjusting our total psoriasis market size and our nutraceutical sales estimates, we reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to NOK15 (10).

Arctic Bioscience (Hold, TP: NOK10.00) - HeROPA readout expected in Q3

The company recently announced a fully recruited HeROPA trial and we expect 6-month data in Q3 2024. We have made minor revisions to our nutraceutical sales estimates and maintain our neutral view on the stock. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK10 target price.

Arctic Bioscience (Hold, TP: NOK10.00) - Patient recruitment is key co...

As communicated by management in H1, the HeROPA phase IIb clinical trial is active in all five planned countries participating in the trial. It had indicated a 6-month inclusion period of the 519 patients; we are approaching six months since the first patient was included (end-January 2023 in the UK), and have concerns that the recruitment period will continue for still some time. Following a further revision of timelines for the company’s pharmaceutical development efforts, we have cut our targ...

Sector Fast Comment - Hospital data update

Better hospital margins in September Weaker procedure volume momentum into Q4 Small positive for capex exposure

Northern Lights

Arctic Bioscience - H1’22 report

HRO350 ph2b: first patient expected in Q4’22e Nutra +40% vs H2’21, Sales 14.4m EBITDA -14.4m 2023 guidance sales 33-38m EBITDA -30-35m

Sector Fast Comment - Entering a new era of US drug price control

Pushes and pulls in Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act 2022 Max impact ’26–early ’30s, possible mitigations thereafter Negative but manageable for AZN, biotech largely spared

Sector Fast Comment - ABG Life Science Summit 2022

51 Nordic life science companies – replay links attached Fireside chats with AstraZeneca, Novo Nordisk, and Sobi Key takeaways

Northern Lights

Arctic Bioscience (Hold, TP: NOK17.00) - Holding zone

Although we believe the company has appealing long-term prospects, we see no potential share-price catalysts for the next 12 months. Following a change of analyst and on our lowered estimates for HRO350 (pharmaceutical business), we have downgraded the stock to HOLD (BUY) and cut our target price to NOK17 (60).

Arctic Bioscience (Buy, TP: NOK60.00) - Q4 trading update

The company issued a planned trading update for Q4 on 18 February (the full report for 2021 is expected on 7 April). We have not updated our forecasts based on the trading update, since the company released only selected numbers. Sales for Q4 were slightly lower than we expected and the adj. EBITDA loss was also bigger. Guidance for 2022 was reasonably in line with our forecast. We reiterate our BUY and NOK60 target price.

Arctic Bioscience - Q4 operational update

HRO350 phase 2b patient enrolment to start mid’22 22 guidance: Sales NOK 30-40m, EBITDA neg. -30-40m Mgmt changes: New CEO from March 1

Arctic Bioscience (Buy, TP: NOK60.00) - Change at the helm

On 14 January, Arctic Bioscience announced there would be a change of CEO during Q1. We see no drama – while the current CEO has been instrumental in taking the company to the current point, a new leg of the journey will commence in 2022e as the large phase II trial in psoriasis is set to be initiated. We reiterate our BUY and NOK60 target price.

Sector Report - COVID-19 variant bad news, but not doomsday

Arctic Bioscience (Buy, TP: NOK60.00) - Moving forward as planned

Arctic Bioscience reported H1 earnings on 26 August. The company is moving in the right direction and is on track to start the phase IIb trial in mild/moderate psoriasis in Q1 2022. Sales trends for its nutraceuticals are on track as is its new production facility in Ørsta. The burn rate was in line with previous guidance and the company reiterated all guidance comments for this year. We reiterate our BUY and NOK60 target price.

Arctic Bioscience - Going in the right direction

Pharma on track and 51% growth in Nutra >40% growth outlook for ‘21e Reiterate BUY with SOTP-based TP of NOK 54 (57)

Arctic Bioscience - Pharma develops according to plan

Sales below but adj. EBITDA in line Pharma business according to plan No major revisions expected