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Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Auto semis: The secular and the cyclical – Time to buy?

Auto semiconductor revenue growth has accelerated in the last 5 years. Part of this acceleration is secular and sustainable, attributable to EVs, ADAS, and general car digitalization. However, part of it is not sustainable and will call for a correction. We estimate that $10bn (6 weeks) of inventory slowly built up over the years and therefore see downside to consensus expectations this year. However, from a stock perspective, we see limited downside, and already attractive valuations and believ...

Baptiste Lebacq
  • Baptiste Lebacq

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/05/2024

Several themes are set to drive the 2024 proxy season, among them the change of voting policy of ISS and a tipping point for climate resolutions. It will also be the last one before the first CSRD reports. Its long-term impact on Boards could also be underestimated. A wave of appointments of specialized sustainability profiles would upset their balance. We identify the AGMs likely to be play the most decisive role for the companies in the medium term: Alstom, Teleperformance, Worldlin...

Baptiste Lebacq ... (+2)
  • Baptiste Lebacq
  • Emmanuel Matot

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 05/04/2024

Plusieurs éléments animeront les assemblées générales 2024 : changement de politique de vote d’ISS, résolutions climat à un tournant… alors que cette saison est la dernière avant les premiers rapports CSRD. Celle-ci pourrait d’ailleurs avoir un impact long terme sous-estimé sur les conseils. Une vague de nominations de profils spécialisés en durabilité bouleverserait leurs équilibres. Nous identifions les AG les plus déterminantes pour la gouvernance des sociétés à moyen terme : Alsto...

Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+2)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri

ODDO : It really is memory that is saving the semiconductors market

>Global sales for February 2024 up +16.4% y-o-y vs +15.5% in January - Worldwide semiconductor sales in February 2024 were published by the WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics), with the usual one-month lag. On a three-month moving average, sales came to $ 43.6bn, slightly ahead of our forecast of $ 43.2bn. This represents a sequential decline of 3% (usual seasonal effect in February), but a fresh improvement in full-year growth to +16.4%, after +15.5% in Janu...

Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+2)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri

ODDO : C’est vraiment la mémoire qui sauve le marché des semiconducteu...

>Ventes mondiales de février 2024 à +16.4% yoy vs +15.5% en janvier - Les ventes mondiales de semiconducteurs de février 2024 viennent d’être publiés par le WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics), avec comme toujours, un mois de décalage. En données lissées (moyenne 3 mois), elles ressortent à 43.6 Md$, légèrement au-dessus de notre prévision de 43.2 Md$. Il s’agit d’une baisse en séquentiel de 3% (saisonnalité normale de février), mais d’une nouvelle améliorati...

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Semi 1Q24 Update: AI shortcuts the cycle, while diversified semis find...

In advance of the upcoming earnings season, we provide an updated view on the semiconductor cycle and give our views on how investors should be positioned into earnings.

Anthony Dick ... (+5)
  • Anthony Dick
  • Marc Lavaud
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Maxime Kogge
  • Michael Foundoukidis

ODDO : Véhicules électriques : d’un excès à l’autre ?

Le momentum autour de l’électrification, moins favorable dernièrement, a conduit à un changement profond de perception, passant d’un optimisme sans doute excessif à un pessimisme qui le semble tout autant. En effet, si nous avons revu en baisse nos hypothèses, nous visons néanmoins toujours une croissance dans les années à venir (y compris cette année), bien supérieure à celle du marché automobile dans son ensemble. Face à ces changements, tous les acteurs au sein de la chaîne de...

Anthony Dick ... (+5)
  • Anthony Dick
  • Marc Lavaud
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Maxime Kogge
  • Michael Foundoukidis

ODDO : Electric vehicles: from one extreme to another?

With momentum around electrification less favourable of late, we have seen a major shift in perception, from doubtless overly rose-tinted optimism to what looks to be similarly excessive pessimism. While we have reduced our BEV assumptions, we nonetheless still anticipate growth in the next few years (including this year), well ahead of that of the automotive market as a whole. In the face of these changes, the players in the value chain (mines, semiconductors, auto) are differen...

Jerôme Bodin
  • Jerôme Bodin

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 03/08/2024

We host our 8th ODDO BHF TMT Forum virtually in 07th and 08th March 2024. In total, 46 companies will be presenting during the forum. In the following note, we provide some initial feedback of companies on day 1. - ...

Jerôme Bodin
  • Jerôme Bodin

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 08/03/2024

We host our 8th ODDO BHF TMT Forum virtually in 07th and 08th March 2024. In total, 46 companies will be presenting during the forum. In the following note, we provide some initial feedback of companies on day 1. - ...

Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+2)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri

Infineon Technologies AG : Guidance quite likely to be adjusted again

>We have lowered our forecasts by 5% and expect a further downgrade to the group's guidance on 7 May - Following our TMT Forum 2024, we have downgraded our scenario for 2024, as we think the expected sequential recovery of close to 20% between H1 and H2 will be tough to achieve in the current environment. A further adjustment to the guidance could thus be on the cards at the Q2 24 earnings release on 7 May. We have therefore adjusted our forecasts by 5%, with our sale...

Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+2)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri

Infineon Technologies AG : Un nouvel ajustement de la guidance nous se...

>Nous révisons en baisse nos prévisions de 5% et anticipons une nouvelle révision en baisse des prévisions du groupe le 7 mai prochain - A l’occasion de notre forum TMT 2024, nous ajustons en baisse notre scénario sur 2024, considérant que le rebond attendu séquentiel attendu de près de 20% entre le S1 et le S2 sera difficile à atteindre dans les conditions actuelles. Un nouvel ajustement de guidance est donc possible lors de la publication des résultats du T2 24, le ...

Bruno Cavalier ... (+2)
  • Bruno Cavalier
  • Charlotte Vaisse
INFINEON INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG
FP TOTAL SE
AC ACCOR SA
AMS AMS AG
SGO COMPAGNIE DE SAINT-GOBAIN SA
O2D TELEFONICA DEUTSCHLAND HOLDING AG
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
ORA ORANGE SA
SK SEB SA
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EN BOUYGUES SA
MUV2 MUNICH REINSURANCE COMPANY
UTDI UNITED INTERNET AG
TNET TELENET GROUP HOLDING NV
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
GAMA GAMMA COMMUNICATIONS
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ELG ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR SE
TPE PVA TEPLA AG
ENI ENI S.P.A.
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
HEN3 HENKEL AG & CO. KGAA PREF
UCB UCB S.A.
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
SOI SOITEC SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
AIXA AIXTRON SE
PFV PFEIFFER VACUUM TECHNOLOGY AG
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
EVK EVONIK INDUSTRIES AG
MONC MONCLER SPA
WAF SILTRONIC AG
MELE MELEXIS NV
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
PRY PRYSMIAN S.P.A.
SMHN SUESS MICROTEC AG
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
CLNX CELLNEX TELECOM S.A.
FNTN FREENET AG
VACN VAT GROUP AG
XFAB X-FAB SILICON FOUNDRIES SE
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
BP. BP P.L.C.
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
OBEL ORANGE BELGIUM SA
TEF TELEFONICA SA
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
NFN NFON AG
DRI 1&1 DRILLISCH AG
RMV RIGHTMOVE PLC
ALKAL KALRAY SA
JEN JENOPTIK AG
ANE CORPORACION ACCIONA ENERGIAS RENOVABLES SA
DTG DAIMLER TRUCK
SHEL SHELL PLC
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
Bruno Cavalier ... (+2)
  • Bruno Cavalier
  • Charlotte Vaisse
INFINEON INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG
FP TOTAL SE
AC ACCOR SA
AMS AMS AG
SGO COMPAGNIE DE SAINT-GOBAIN SA
O2D TELEFONICA DEUTSCHLAND HOLDING AG
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
ORA ORANGE SA
SK SEB SA
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EN BOUYGUES SA
MUV2 MUNICH REINSURANCE COMPANY
UTDI UNITED INTERNET AG
TNET TELENET GROUP HOLDING NV
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
GAMA GAMMA COMMUNICATIONS
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ELG ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR SE
TPE PVA TEPLA AG
ENI ENI S.P.A.
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
HEN3 HENKEL AG & CO. KGAA PREF
UCB UCB S.A.
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
SOI SOITEC SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
AIXA AIXTRON SE
PFV PFEIFFER VACUUM TECHNOLOGY AG
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
EVK EVONIK INDUSTRIES AG
MONC MONCLER SPA
WAF SILTRONIC AG
MELE MELEXIS NV
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
PRY PRYSMIAN S.P.A.
SMHN SUESS MICROTEC AG
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
CLNX CELLNEX TELECOM S.A.
FNTN FREENET AG
VACN VAT GROUP AG
XFAB X-FAB SILICON FOUNDRIES SE
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
BP. BP P.L.C.
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
OBEL ORANGE BELGIUM SA
TEF TELEFONICA SA
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
NFN NFON AG
DRI 1&1 DRILLISCH AG
RMV RIGHTMOVE PLC
ALKAL KALRAY SA
JEN JENOPTIK AG
ANE CORPORACION ACCIONA ENERGIAS RENOVABLES SA
DTG DAIMLER TRUCK
SHEL SHELL PLC
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
Martin Marandon-Carlhian ... (+2)
  • Martin Marandon-Carlhian
  • Stephane Houri

ODDO : Continuing upturn in January, again driven by memory

>Worldwide sales in January 24 at +15.5% y-o-y vs +12.5% in December 23 - Worldwide semiconductor sales for January 2024 were published this weekend by WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics), with a month’s lag, as usual. As a three-month moving average, they came in at $ 47.6bn (in line with our forecast), or +15.5% y-o-y after 12.5% y-o-y in December. This gives a sequential decline of 2.1%. Continuing sharp improvement in memory segment, automotiv...

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