Auto semiconductor revenue growth has accelerated in the last 5 years. Part of this acceleration is secular and sustainable, attributable to EVs, ADAS, and general car digitalization. However, part of it is not sustainable and will call for a correction. We estimate that $10bn (6 weeks) of inventory slowly built up over the years and therefore see downside to consensus expectations this year. However, from a stock perspective, we see limited downside, and already attractive valuations and believ...
Several themes are set to drive the 2024 proxy season, among them the change of voting policy of ISS and a tipping point for climate resolutions. It will also be the last one before the first CSRD reports. Its long-term impact on Boards could also be underestimated. A wave of appointments of specialized sustainability profiles would upset their balance. We identify the AGMs likely to be play the most decisive role for the companies in the medium term: Alstom, Teleperformance, Worldlin...
Plusieurs éléments animeront les assemblées générales 2024 : changement de politique de vote d’ISS, résolutions climat à un tournant… alors que cette saison est la dernière avant les premiers rapports CSRD. Celle-ci pourrait d’ailleurs avoir un impact long terme sous-estimé sur les conseils. Une vague de nominations de profils spécialisés en durabilité bouleverserait leurs équilibres. Nous identifions les AG les plus déterminantes pour la gouvernance des sociétés à moyen terme : Alsto...
>Global sales for February 2024 up +16.4% y-o-y vs +15.5% in January - Worldwide semiconductor sales in February 2024 were published by the WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics), with the usual one-month lag. On a three-month moving average, sales came to $ 43.6bn, slightly ahead of our forecast of $ 43.2bn. This represents a sequential decline of 3% (usual seasonal effect in February), but a fresh improvement in full-year growth to +16.4%, after +15.5% in Janu...
>Ventes mondiales de février 2024 à +16.4% yoy vs +15.5% en janvier - Les ventes mondiales de semiconducteurs de février 2024 viennent d’être publiés par le WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics), avec comme toujours, un mois de décalage. En données lissées (moyenne 3 mois), elles ressortent à 43.6 Md$, légèrement au-dessus de notre prévision de 43.2 Md$. Il s’agit d’une baisse en séquentiel de 3% (saisonnalité normale de février), mais d’une nouvelle améliorati...
Le momentum autour de l’électrification, moins favorable dernièrement, a conduit à un changement profond de perception, passant d’un optimisme sans doute excessif à un pessimisme qui le semble tout autant. En effet, si nous avons revu en baisse nos hypothèses, nous visons néanmoins toujours une croissance dans les années à venir (y compris cette année), bien supérieure à celle du marché automobile dans son ensemble. Face à ces changements, tous les acteurs au sein de la chaîne de...
With momentum around electrification less favourable of late, we have seen a major shift in perception, from doubtless overly rose-tinted optimism to what looks to be similarly excessive pessimism. While we have reduced our BEV assumptions, we nonetheless still anticipate growth in the next few years (including this year), well ahead of that of the automotive market as a whole. In the face of these changes, the players in the value chain (mines, semiconductors, auto) are differen...
We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 212 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides:
>We have lowered our forecasts by 5% and expect a further downgrade to the group's guidance on 7 May - Following our TMT Forum 2024, we have downgraded our scenario for 2024, as we think the expected sequential recovery of close to 20% between H1 and H2 will be tough to achieve in the current environment. A further adjustment to the guidance could thus be on the cards at the Q2 24 earnings release on 7 May. We have therefore adjusted our forecasts by 5%, with our sale...
>Nous révisons en baisse nos prévisions de 5% et anticipons une nouvelle révision en baisse des prévisions du groupe le 7 mai prochain - A l’occasion de notre forum TMT 2024, nous ajustons en baisse notre scénario sur 2024, considérant que le rebond attendu séquentiel attendu de près de 20% entre le S1 et le S2 sera difficile à atteindre dans les conditions actuelles. Un nouvel ajustement de guidance est donc possible lors de la publication des résultats du T2 24, le ...
>Worldwide sales in January 24 at +15.5% y-o-y vs +12.5% in December 23 - Worldwide semiconductor sales for January 2024 were published this weekend by WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics), with a month’s lag, as usual. As a three-month moving average, they came in at $ 47.6bn (in line with our forecast), or +15.5% y-o-y after 12.5% y-o-y in December. This gives a sequential decline of 2.1%. Continuing sharp improvement in memory segment, automotiv...
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