We are putting our coverage of the following stocks UNDER REVIEW, with immediate effect. We caution against using the forecasts, ratings and price target guidance issued previously on these stocks: Addiko Bank Alro Arion banki Bogdanka Cognor Holding DataWalk Gradus Grenevia Islandsbanki Kety TeraPlast
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Aegean Airlines: en route to the best year on record, by far (stays HOLD) • Alro: deep net loss of RON 230m in 3Q23 NEGATIVE • Nuclearelectrica: 3Q23 reported net profit 4% lower yoy, fully in line with our estimate NEUTRAL • Banca Transilvania: solid 3Q23 results, but spoiled, once again, by the Volksbank saga • Graphisoft Park: 3Q23 - steady as she goes • OTE: key takeaways from the 3Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • MedLife: targeting return to c.15% EBITDA margins NEUTRAL • ADNOC D...
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • Romgaz: keeper for the longer term (stays BUY) • Turkish Airlines: 2Q23 beat, revenue environment remains very strong, costs better than expected POSITIVE • Logo Yazilim: 2Q23 results in line, but FY23E guidance cut NEGATIVE • Alro: deeper net loss in 2Q23, bauxite business to be sold NEGATIVE • CCC: preliminary 2Q23 adjusted EBITDA falls 27% yoy, headlines broadly as expected NEUTRAL • Brisa: takeaways from the 2Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: July sales up 27% yoy NEUTR...
EME Equity Market – July 2023 Market performance – gains keep on rolling in all geographies, with special mention of Turkey’s stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 8.6% mom in EUR terms and 9.5% mom in USD in July. Turkey clearly outperformed its peers, gaining 18.6% mom in EUR terms. Most other geographies performed more or less at similar levels, with the Polish WIG20 in the upper part of the range, advancing 7.3% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and Czech PX indic...
HEADLINES: • Turkey macro: CBT delivers an underwhelming hike • Alro: 2Q23 trading update • Krka: takeaways from the 2Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Polish media: Viaplay exits Poland POSITIVE • CCC: 2Q23E prelims preview - PLN 69m EBIT expected (due on 8-9 August, TBC) NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: 2Q23E preview - 10% yoy drop in adjusted EBITDA expected (due on 16 August) • Asseco Poland: 2Q23E preview -16% yoy net profit drop expected (due on 24 August)
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
HEADLINES: • Cyfrowy Polsat: 1Q23 results review - soft numbers, in line with expectations NEUTRAL • InPost: 1Q23 beat on margin recovery, FY guidance maintained, slowdown in 2Q23E POSITIVE • AmRest: disposal of the Russian operations for EUR 100m finalised POSITIVE • Transelectrica: 1Q23 results broadly in line with expectations NEUTRAL • Electrica: weaker distribution results than expected in 1Q23 NEGATIVE • Patria Bank: 1Q23 bottom line undermined by NII weakness NEGATIVE • OMV Petrom: esti...
HEADLINES: • Purcari: 1Q23 results show strong sales growth POSITIVE • Transgaz: stronger 1Q23 net profit than expected, on lower impairments of receivables NEUTRAL • Alro: net loss reported for 1Q23 NEGATIVE • DIGI Communications: 1Q23 results - adjusted EBITDA up 8% yoy, in line with our estimates NEUTRAL • ONE United Properties: 1Q23 in line, as higher revenue compensated for a lower gross profit margin NEUTRAL • Fondul Proprietatea: Hidroelectrica 1Q23 results • Nuclearelectrica: takeaways...
EME Equity Market – March 2023 Market performance – all geographies down in March. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 7.6% mom in EUR terms and 5.7% mom in USD in March. Among a sea of red, Romania’s BET saw the smallest decline (-2.6% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Czech PX Index (-5.5% mom in EUR terms). The Greek ASE and the Hungarian BUX indices saw similar declines (-7.4% and -7.5% mom ,respectively, in EUR terms), while the worst performer for the month was the Turkish ISE30, down 10.5% mo...
HEADLINES: • Hellenic Bank: an accretive asset (stays BUY) • Eurocash: 13% EBITDA beat in 4Q; effective tax rate below 30% POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: FY22 adjusted EBITDA in line with preliminary guidance NEUTRAL • Athens Exchange Group: soft 4Q22, but a strong start to 2023 • Alro: takeaways from the 4Q22 earnings call • OMV Petrom: potential amendments to solidarity tax legislation NEUTRAL • Polish banks: Polish newswires on works on legislative solution for FX mortgage saga • Short News (E...
HEADLINES: • Global macro: latest data • Transelectrica: takeaways from the 4Q22 earnings call • Electrica: disappointing 2023E budget • Alro: 2023 budget shows a significant decline in profitability • PKO BP: reshuffling in the Supervisory Board NEGATIVE • Telecom Egypt: management revises the proposed 2022 dividend to EGP 1.25/share NEUTRAL • Colt CZ Group: thoughts on the 4Q22 earnings beat and FY23 guidance • Turkey chartbook: all eyes on the elections as imbalances grow • Athens Exch...
EME Equity Market – February 2023 Market performance – Greece and Czechia continue with good momentum; Turkey resumes rally. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 4.9% mom in EUR terms and 2.4% mom in USD in February. The Greek ASE and the Czech PX were, again, the best performers, adding 10.4% mom and 7.6% mom in EUR terms, respectively; while the rally resumed in Turkey, with the ISE 30 index gaining 7.3% mom in EUR terms. There was a somewhat muted performance in Hungary and Romania, with the BUX a...
HEADLINES: • Piraeus Bank: another upgrade, more on the way (stays BUY) • Inter Cars: solid play, attractively priced (BUY - transfer of coverage) • Erste Bank: posts solid 4Q22, reiterates DPS proposal and tops it up with a share buyback plan NEUTRAL • Kaspi.kz: 4Q22 highlights - good quarter, plus 2023E guidance 6% higher vs. current estimate • Coca-Cola Icecek: strong beat in 4Q22 results POSITIVE • Richter: big 4Q miss - pre year-end impairments - on opex pressures NEGATIVE • ONE United P...
HEADLINES: • Bank of Cyprus: patience wins the race (stays BUY) • Turk Telekom: 4Q22 results in line, but no dividends from the FY22 earnings NEGATIVE • Magyar Telekom: 4Q22 results - EBITDA down 3% yoy, 2% above the consensus; strong 2023-24E outlook POSITIVE • TBC Bank: 4Q22 highlights, and our take on the redemption liability • Brisa: small 4Q22 earnings beat, declares DPS of TRY 3.6 (6.0% yield) POSITIVE • Piraeus Bank: 4Q22E results (due out tomorrow morning) • Alro: 4Q22E results previ...
HEADLINES: • Turkey macro: CBT on hold, with an emphasis on macroprudential measures • Alro: 4Q22 trading update POSITIVE • Purcari Wineries: 4Q22 trading update; COO resignation POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: two new publishing agreements NEUTRAL • KGHM: exploring opportunities in copper processing plants/smelters as a consultant/designer in Chile NEUTRAL • Jahez: Impact Finance to transfer its 31.3% stake in Jahez to its unitholders NEGATIVE • Bank Handlowy: 4Q22E preliminary results preview (due ...
EME Equity Market – November 2022 Market performance – Turkey does it again, breezing past everyone else, once more, in November. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 11.6% mom in EUR terms and 16.7% mom in USD. The ISE30 index, again, boasted the best performance among our coverage, adding 18.6% mom in EUR terms and 23.9% mom in local currency (lcl) terms. Positive performances were also recorded in the WIG (+14.0% EU /13.0% lcl mom), the BUX (+12.6% EUR/12.0% lcl mom), the BET (+8.4% EUR/8.6% lcl...
HEADLINES: • Greek banks: earnings upgrades cycle (Alpha Bank, Eurobank, NBG and Piraeus Bank stay BUY) • Dom Development: 3Q22 - en route to another year of record profit POSITIVE • KGHM: 3Q22 results review - net income beat, but operating cash flow remains weak • Alro: takeaways from the 3Q22 earnings call POSITIVE • Purcari Wineries: takeaways from the 3Q22 earnings call NEUTRAL • Romgaz: takeaways from the 3Q22 earnings call NEUTRAL • Polish banks: PLN mortgage loan agreements subject t...
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