HEADLINES: • Polish utilities: a flash in the pan (Enea and Tauron stay HOLD, PGE stays SELL) • Bank Millennium: posts solid 3Q25, all priced in NEUTRAL • Akbank: 3Q25 highlights – no major surprises, but NIM recovery remains slow and 2026E COR guidance appears cautious NEUTRAL • Kety: 3Q25 conference call highlights NEUTRAL • Orange Polska: key takeaways from the 3Q25 earnings call NEUTRAL • Orlen: wins USD 146m from Gazprom POSITIVE • Türkiye macro: CBT delivers 100bps cut, in line with the co...
HEADLINES: • Hidroelectrica: water should yield more (SELL - transfer of coverage) • MONETA Money Bank: posts solid 3Q25 results NEUTRAL • Orange Polska: 3Q25 results – EBITDAaL up 4% yoy, 2% above the consensus; 2025E guidance reiterated POSITIVE • Kety: full 3Q25 results fully in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • Sarantis: 3Q trading update slightly below expectations; FY25E guidance maintained NEGATIVE • MOL: to become a holding company NEUTRAL • Warsaw Stock Exchange: CEO favours Poland ...
We think that the robust outlook for Polish economic growth should offset mid-term uncertainty on fiscal policy and political risk. We have made a slight upward revision to our forecasts for pre-tax profit (by 1% to 4%) but lowered our EPS forecasts by 21% for 2026e and 4% for 2027e. After factoring in the full impact of the new tax bill, we have adjusted our target prices but remain cautiously positive on Polish banks. We favour mBank (upgrade to Outperform) for its upbeat long-term outlook and...
HEADLINES: • Raiffeisen Bank International: material upside locked up in Russia (stays BUY) • Theon International: secures EUR 300m long-term supply agreement with a NATO country POSITIVE • Motor Oil Hellas: to receive an extra EUR 39m from its investment in Ellaktor POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (13-19 October) • Magyar Telekom: 3Q25E preview – 13% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 12 November) • Wirtualna Polska: 3Q25E preview – soft quarter, with 1% yoy pro-forma adjusted E...
HEADLINES: • Orlen: makes an offer to buy Grupa Azoty Polyolefins NEGATIVE • VIGO Photonics: 3Q25 sales up 48.5% yoy to PLN 23.3m POSITIVE • Poland macro: August balance of payments data underscores weak exports • Budimex: PLN 2.6bn bid from Budimex's consortium scored highest in the PKP PLK tender POSITIVE • PZU: the new CEO gives one of his first interviews, discussing the potential PZU–Pekao merger NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: Hard Rock Cafe joining the company’s brand portfolio POSITIVE • CEZ: AN...
HEADLINES: • Kazatomprom: soft metal still rocks (stays BUY) • Elbit Systems: strong execution at a rich valuation (stays HOLD) • MONETA Money Bank: management recommends CZK 4/share extra dividend due before the year-end POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: conditions have been met for the acquisition of Eco Point PSA shares POSITIVE • Inter Cars: September sales growth accelerates to 13% yoy POSITIVE • Rainbow Tours: winter season pre-sales 5.7% higher yoy NEUTRAL • GTC: repurchases EUR 195m of 2026 bonds • Er...
HEADLINES: • Kruk: solid 3Q25 trading update, but still at a standstill in Spain NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: 3Q25 trading statement POSITIVE • OMV: 3Q25 trading statement NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: to book PLN 394m of FX mortgage saga provisions in 3Q25 NEUTRAL • Murapol: 734 apartments sold and 413 units handed over in 3Q25; 66% of our annual sales forecast met after 1-3Q25 NEGATIVE • Poland macro: NBP cuts again, on steady inflation • Romania macro: MPC on a prolonged pause • Theon International: si...
Brent crude oil prices increased by USD 0.4/bbl vs. the previous month, to USD 67.6/bbl. In August, OPEC production hit its highest level, again, since June 2023, reaching 27.9mbpd. Drone strikes on Russian refineries boosted refinery margins, with our benchmark rising USD 2.0/bbl, to USD 14.7/bbl. Most petrochemicals margins weakened further.
HEADLINES: • Czech macro: parliamentary elections – 3-4 October • Text: preliminary 2Q25-26 (calendar 3Q25) results – MRR of USD 7.06m (down 1.5% qoq, up 0.3% yoy) NEGATIVE • GTC: launches a landmark bond refinancing with a 6.5% EUR 455m 2030 tranche POSITIVE • Asseco Poland: TSS sends open letter to ACP's shareholders and proposes new incentive scheme NEUTRAL • Turkish automotive: strong momentum in light vehicle sales continued in September • The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Romanian BET in...
EME Equity Market – September 2025 Romanian BET led in September, while Türkiye and Hungary lagged. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.1% in USD terms. The Romanian BET was the top performer, adding 3.6% in EUR terms; followed by the Czech PX (+3.2% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+1.1% mom) (all in EUR terms); while there was a muted performance from the Greek ASE (+0.6% mom in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 and the Hungarian BUX were the worst performing indices in September(...
HEADLINES: • Pepco: lfl recovery continued in 4Q25, with Poland falling behind W. Europe; another EUR 50m buyback announced POSITIVE • Jumbo: 1H25 earnings slightly lower than expected - adj. EBITDA +7% yoy to EUR 165m NEGATIVE • Theon International: wins another sizeable OCCAR contract POSITIVE • Czech Republic macro: CNB on hold • Eurowag: TA Associates completes GBP 56m ABB • PZU: new acting CEO appointed, pending PFSA approval NEUTRAL • Banca Transilvania: proposes an extraordinary DPS of RO...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: Czech Republic - strong fundamentals anchor politics • mBank: Capital Markets Day - key takeaways POSITIVE • Murapol: 2Q25 results above expectations, strong OCF and new offer slowdown POSITIVE • Hungary macro: MNB on a protracted pause • Energy: Kirkuk pipeline set for restart POSITIVE • Jumbo: 1H25 results preview (due out today, after the close) • Short News (ROE1L)
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