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Autohellas | A demanding year, but the engine still turns

2025e: resilient but stagnant amid elevated competition – Autohellas has maintained solid top line momentum across its core activities despite an increasingly demanding backdrop, continuing to gain share in key segments. Against this environment we have modestly trimmed our 2025 forecasts to reflect the soft patch in international rentals and the intensified competition in both Greek rentals and Autotrade. At the same time, profitability remains constrained by elevated depreciation tied to a more expensive fleet mix. We now project 2025 rental revenues of €501m (+5.7% yoy) and Autotrade revenues of €534m (+4.4% yoy), taking Group sales to €1,035m (+5% yoy). EBITDA should grow broadly in line with revenues to €291m (+4.6% yoy), although a c14% increase in D&A leads to an EBIT estimate of €115m (-7% yoy) and net profit of €76.1m, down 10% yoy and 7% below our prior forecast.

… with operating trends improving after Q1 – The group has delivered fairly resilient performance despite a soft start to the year, with Q1 proving notably weak before trends improved meaningfully through the subsequent quarters. Over the 9M period, EBITDA rose 4.5% yoy on the back of c5.3% revenue growth. Renting in Greece has remained highly profitable, particularly during the core summer period, and has been further supported by robust Auto-trade volumes through Q2-Q3. The group’s diversified business model has cushioned market volatility and sustained profitability, even as depreciation costs increased, with net profit in 9M’25 reaching €69mn (down 4.5% yoy).

Mid-single digit growth algorithm post 2025 – We expect 5–6% sales CAGR post 2025, supported by a growing fleet, steady utilisation and tourism-driven demand, alongside ongoing gains in Autotrade and sustained momentum in long-term rentals. EBIT growth should accelerate to a mid-single-digit trajectory with margins holding near 11%, with scope for gradual improvement further out. In our view, Autohellas remains well placed to benefit from structural growth levers (tourism, rising LtR penetration) as well as cyclical drivers including a growing new-car market and solid domestic GDP trends.

Healthy balance sheet and cash flow generation – Autohellas continues to invest meaningfully in fleet renewal and expansion, with net fleet capex set to stay >€200m annually. Even under this heavier capex load, leverage remains comfortable, with net debt/EBITDA near 2.6x in 2025–26e and trending lower thereafter. Strong operating cash flow, lean working capital and RRF funding support further growth without pressuring the balance sheet. We also see room for balance-sheet optimisation, with our model assuming a payout ratio >49% vs a historical c45%.

Valuation – We value Autohellas using a DCF approach, which in our view best reflects both its cash-flow generation capacity and its capital-intensive operating model. We apply a 10% WACC to account for sector cyclicality and the stock’s low liquidity. Our PT stands at €14.6/share, supporting a Buy rating and implying a 2026e EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.4x. We consider the current valuation undemanding, particularly in light of the Group’s scaling trajectory, with the shares trading at a c22% discount to international peers. Moreover, we see scope for a rerating as the business continues to expand and profit momentum strengthens beyond 2026e.