Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on ABC Arbitrage (ABCA), paragon (PGN), Foresight Solar Fund (FSFL), Kendrion (KENDR), Lithium Power International (LPI), Triple Point Energy Transition (TENT), 4iG (4IG), e-therapeutics (ETX), Pharnext (ALPHA) and Shield Therapeutics (STX). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant. Previously published reports can still be accessed via our web...
4iG’s FY23 results showed good revenue and EBITDA growth on a reported and pro forma basis. The Telco business, which includes an 11 month contribution from the Vodafone Hungary acquisition, showed pro forma revenue growth of 7% and pro forma EBITDA growth of 17%. The group transformation project is well underway and, as part of the plan, the space-related businesses have been hived off into a standalone company. The plans for a subsea fibre-optic cable between Egypt and Albania are making good ...
HEADLINES: • Telecom Egypt: 4Q23 results review – EBITDA up 24% yoy, 7% below the consensus NEUTRAL • Arcelik: weak operating performance in 4Q23 results NEGATIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (26 February-3 March) • 4iG: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call • Purcari Wineries: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: February bookings estimate at USD 13m, up 5% mom POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: February total bookings estimate flat mom, but further declines in ...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
Yesterday (29 February), after the market closed, 4iG reported its 4Q23 results, with solid yoy expansions in sales, to HUF 173bn (up 114% yoy, 5% above our estimate), and EBITDA, to HUF 50.0bn (up by 164% yoy, 3% below our estimate), and a net loss of HUF 15.9bn (vs. -HUF 11.7bn in 4Q22 and our PLN 16.8m net loss forecast). We see the results as neutral, despite the marginal miss vs. our EBITDA forecast. We note that the company is in the middle of a business transformation, which is causing a ...
HEADLINES: • Patria Bank: strong bottom-line beat, but lacking quality • Turkey macro: 4Q GDP expands by 4% • 4iG: 4Q23 results review – solid results, with 19% yoy pro-forma EBITDA growth NEUTRAL • AUGA Group: 4Q23 – positive gross profit in all segments, but liquidity risk on the horizon • HELLENiQ Energy: 4Q23 results – dividend proposal NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: 4Q23 above our expectations POSITIVE • AmRest: key takeaways from the 4Q23 call POSITIVE • Richter: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings ...
HEADLINES: • Solutions by STC: M&A remain the main source of growth (stays HOLD) • Banca Transilvania: strong NII and NIM expansion in 4Q23 results POSITIVE • Kaspi.kz: 4Q23 highlights and 2024E guidance POSITIVE • Akcansa: 2023 financial results review NEUTRAL • Hidroelectrica: FY23 consolidated net profit 5% above preliminary figure (stand-alone) NEUTRAL • ONE United Properties: reaches EBITDA (excluding revaluations) of EUR 59m in 2023 NEUTRAL • ADNOC Distribution: 2028 strategy update NEUTRA...
HEADLINES: • CCC: the boys are back in town (stays BUY) • Bank Pekao: solid 2023 profits, generous PLN 19.2/share dividend, market waiting for AGM date POSITIVE • Orlen: 4Q23 results – CCS EBITDA in line NEUTRAL • Solutions by STC: key takeaways from the 4Q23 conference call NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: potential to pay out up to 50% of its 2023 net profit as a dividend NEUTRAL • PKO BP: PFSA guides for maximum dividend payout • Polish banks: mBank, ING BSK and Santander BP receive dividend letters fro...
HEADLINES: • Romanian banks: banking in the land of Dracula (Banca Transilvania stays BUY and BRD-GSG stays HOLD - transfer of coverage) • EME Macro/Strategy: Hungary - heading into a brighter 2024E • 4iG: key takeaways from the 3Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • CEZ: completes sale of stake in AKCEZ Enerji NEUTRAL • ING BSK: receives approval for dividend payment NEUTRAL • Kazatomprom: signs contract with Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation to supply uranium • Elm: announces completion of discussio...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
Yesterday (30 November), after the close, 4iG reported its 3Q23 results. We see the outcome of the results and the conference call as neutral. We note that the qoq EBITDA drop was driven by a strong base, fuelled by a one-off gain on the sale of certain elements of DIGI HU’s mobile network: the net impact of one-off items on the 2Q23 EBITDA stood at HUF 14.0bn. The miss vs. our forecasts reflected primarily the differences in holding costs and other operating income results vs. our figures, as w...
HEADLINES: • Cimsa: sustainable growth, with a global view (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Magyar Telekom: fastest-growing EMEA telecom (stays BUY) • Ten Square Games: improved short-term outlook, but long-term challenges (stays HOLD) • EME Macro/Strategy: CIS plus - top growth in our markets, again • 4iG: 3Q23 review - solid results, with 32% yoy pro-forma EBITDA growth NEUTRAL • Duna House: 3Q23 - doubles down on Italy with the Professione Casa acquisition NEUTRAL • AUGA Group: 3Q23 - wor...
HEADLINES: • CD Projekt: slight positive surprise in 3Q23 adjusted EBITDA, solid Phantom Liberty sales to date POSITIVE • Elbit Systems: 3Q23 results and earnings call POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: Turkey - resilient growth in the face of higher rates • EME Macro/Strategy: Greece - so far, so good, a preview of the next leaps forward • Mo-BRUK: El Kajo deal offers strong revenue and EBITDA addition potential POSITIVE • PCF Group: decision to limit scope of Project Dagger NEGATIVE • Polish u...
HEADLINES: • ADNOC Distribution: fuelled by non-fuel (stays BUY) • Allegro: 3Q23 results a notch above expectations; guidance for a strong 4Q23E in Poland POSITIVE • Benefit Systems: better-than-expected 3Q23, solid 2023-24E outlook but also higher capex guidance POSITIVE • AROBS Transilvania Software: qoq margin expansion in 3Q23 POSITIVE • Krka: 3Q results normalising, in line with our FY23E outlook NEUTRAL • DataWalk: actual 3Q23 numbers fully in line with preliminaries NEUTRAL • VIGO Photon...
HEADLINES: • Teknosa: good things come in small packages (BUY - initiation of coverage) • OTP Bank: beats expectations with 3Q23 delivery • Bank Handlowy: solid 3Q23, DPS feasible and attractive, still a reason to own the stock NEUTRAL • Eurocash: 3Q23 beat on costs POSITIVE • Dogus Otomotiv: strong bottom-line beat in 3Q23 POSITIVE • Ulker: 3Q23 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Sok Marketler Ticaret: 3Q23 in line operationally, strong bottom-line beat on deferred tax income NEUTRAL • Public P...
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
HEADLINES: • Bank Millennium: to book PLN 673m of FX mortgage saga costs in 3Q23E NEUTRAL • Poland macro: NBP continues with the easing cycle • Iceland macro: Sedlabanki on a hawkish pause • Orlen: awarded licences for five Baltic Sea windfarms • Orlen: commissions biodiesel plant • Cyfrowy Polsat: repurchases 50% stakes in Port Praski City II and Port Praski Medical Center NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: CEO purchases ACP shares worth PLN 8.86m POSITIVE • 4iG: signs MoU for construction of submar...
4iG’s H123 results reflect the inclusion of Vodafone Hungary (VH) since its acquisition on 31 January. Since then, 4iG has been working through its integration plan, which includes monetising the DIGI mobile network infrastructure and launching a strategic review to consider carve-out options and further asset optimisation (the scope is Hungarian fixed and Albanian/Montenegrin passive mobile infrastructure). After a multi-year series of telco and IT acquisitions in Hungary and the Western Balkan...
HEADLINES: • Greece macro: still on a promising growth trajectory • Jahez: 1H23 earnings miss, announces 20:1 stock split NEGATIVE • 4iG: key takeaways from the 2Q23 earnings call • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (28 August-3 September) • Wizz Air: trends in August little changed vs. July NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: August bookings estimate up 23% mom, driven by the flagship games POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: August bookings flat mom, Wings of Heroes up slightly NEUTRAL • ONE United Propert...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
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