HEADLINES: • Orange Polska: strategy focused on growth (stays BUY) • Ignitis Group: making headway (BUY - transfer of coverage) • PZU: 4Q24 well ahead of expectations, holding structure to be created within PZU group POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: 4Q24 results – EBITDA up 9% yoy, 9% above our forecast and 1% above the consensus POSITIVE • Colt CZ Group SE: FY24 results review NEUTRAL • Public Power Corporation: 4Q24 earnings, and preview of a potential mega data centre NEUTRAL • Lamda Development: 4Q2...
We transfer coverage of Ignitis, reiterating our BUY rating and setting a price target (PT) of EUR 24.8/share. The company has a diversified earnings mix, with half its 2024 adj. EBITDA generated by RES (Green Capacities) and 41% from gas and power distribution (Networks). Only 8% of Ignitis’ EBITDA is exposed to fossil fuels (Reserve Capacities). This makes Ignitis very “clean” compared to most CEE utilities. The earnings are also predictable: its RES operate on fixed-priced PPAs/CfDs while bot...
HEADLINES: • CEZ: government may try to include support for coal plants in draft gas bill NEUTRAL • Wizz Air: extends compensation agreement with PW until YE26 NEUTRAL • mBank: sees PLN 907m of FX mortgage saga costs in 4Q24E NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: update on increased fees in Wałbrzych for 2018 NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: agrees to acquire Invia Group for c.EUR 240m POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: December bookings estimate jumps by 18% mom, to USD 13m POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: December bookings estimat...
We put our coverage of the following stocks UNDER REVIEW, with immediate effect: Fondul Proprietatea Globalworth Ignitis Group Philip Morris Piraeus Port Authority We caution against using the forecasts, ratings and price target guidance issued previously on these stocks.
EME Equity Market – August 2024 A red month for the EME indices, with only the Czech PX index in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe index declined by 4.7% in EUR terms and 2.6% in USD terms in August. The Czech PX index was the only index to report a positive figure, adding 0.5% mom in EUR terms. The rest of the indices were in the red: the Turkish ISE30 index was down 11.5% mom in EUR terms, followed by Greece (-3.2% mom), Romania (-2.6% mom) and Hungary (-1.2% mom; all in EUR terms). The P...
HEADLINES: • Elbit Systems: 2Q24 results – strong growth, and improved cash flows and margins POSITIVE • Aquila Part Prod Com S.A.: earnings remain on target for FY24E POSITIVE • Ignitis Group: raises FY24E adjusted EBITDA guidance after the 2Q24 results POSITIVE • DIGI Communications: key takeaways from the 2Q24 earnings call NEUTRAL • Telecom Egypt: key takeaways from the 2Q24 earnings call NEUTRAL • Poland macro: flash GDP surprises positively • Romania macro: 2Q GDP flash estimate underperfo...
EME Equity Market – May 2024 Turkish equities lead, in the mostly green month of May. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.8% mom in LCU terms in May. The Turkish ISE30 index reported the strongest performance, adding 3.6% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Czech PX (+2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Hungarian BUX index and the Polish WIG20 remained broadly flat (+0.4% and +0.2% mom in EUR terms, respectively); although, in LCU terms,...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: strong 1Q24, but May card base estimate disappoints POSITIVE • Magyar Telekom: 1Q24E results review – EBITDA up 46% yoy, 6% above the consensus; 2024E guidance upgraded POSITIVE • Patria Bank: strong bottom-line print in 1Q24, but loan book development remains absent POSITIVE • GEVORKYAN: 1Q24 EBITDA up 24% yoy, 17% above our estimate POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: 1Q24 EBITDA 5% above our forecast, 6% miss vs. the consensus NEUTRAL • DataWalk: 1Q24 numbers fully in line with ...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES • Erste Bank: 4Q23 results • AmRest: 4Q23 EBITDA in line, but earnings affected by EUR 29m goodwill write-down for Sushi Shop NEGATIVE • Text: 3Q23-24 (calendar 4Q23) results – EBITDA down 4% yoy, 10% above the consensus POSITIVE • Electrica: 4Q23 results in line with expectations NEGATIVE • Purcari Wineries: 4Q23 results and 2024E outlook in line with expectations POSITIVE • Aquila Part Prod Com: earnings beat, on lower credit losses, interest income and tax rate POSITIVE • Nuclearel...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (14-20 August) • Transgaz: takeaways from the 2Q23 earnings call POSITIVE • Fondul Proprietatea: shareholders approve RON 1.7225 DPS (90% dividend yield) • CEZ: ANO says CEZ bid for GasNet is "logical" NEUTRAL • Ignitis Group: new, higher WACCs for network assets • Short News (LVC)
EME Equity Market – June 2023 Market performance – in the mostly green month of June, Czech Index’s red performance stands out; Turkish gains eclipsed by TRY devaluation. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 3.3% mom in EUR terms and 6.0% mom in USD in June. The Polish WIG20 advanced the most (+11.1% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms), the Greek ASE Index (+4.9% mom in EUR terms) and the Romanian BET Index (with a more modest, but positive performance: +2....
HEADLINES: • Ignitis Group: green gold (stays BUY) • Czech Republic macro: CNB prolongs the pause • Georgia macro: NBG maintains policy rate at 10.5%, despite inflation being below target already • Romgaz: calls GMS for approval to contract legal services to acquire distribution assets • Polish telecoms: Polish 5G frequency auction starts today NEUTRAL • Short News (WPL)
We reiterate our BUY rating on Ignitis Group (Ignitis), with a new 12M price target (PT) of EUR 31.1/share, implying 53% upside. We believe that Ignitis is still undervalued and unfairly overlooked by investors. It offers: 1) a credible plan for 1-1.2GW of new RES additions until 2026E and 3-4GW of additions by 2030E, vs. the current 1.2GW; 2) EBITDA outperforming peers over the next three years, despite our falling power pricing assumptions; 3) generous dividend distributions, despite the heavy...
EME Equity Market – February 2023 Market performance – Greece and Czechia continue with good momentum; Turkey resumes rally. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 4.9% mom in EUR terms and 2.4% mom in USD in February. The Greek ASE and the Czech PX were, again, the best performers, adding 10.4% mom and 7.6% mom in EUR terms, respectively; while the rally resumed in Turkey, with the ISE 30 index gaining 7.3% mom in EUR terms. There was a somewhat muted performance in Hungary and Romania, with the BUX a...
HEADLINES: • AmRest: 4Q22 miss as EBITDA fell yoy in all markets, bar Russia NEGATIVE • Aselsan: strong 4Q22 earnings beat, but no FY23E guidance surprise POSITIVE • Dogus Otomotiv: 4Q22 results miss expectations NEGATIVE • Migros: operating performance remained very weak in 4Q22 NEGATIVE • Duna House: FY22 results above our estimates, driven by strong Italy, DPS proposal implies 26% yield POSITIVE • LiveChat Software: 3Q22-23 - EBITDA +56% yoy, 4% below consensus; cooperation with OpenAI confi...
EME Equity Market – November 2022 Market performance – Turkey does it again, breezing past everyone else, once more, in November. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 11.6% mom in EUR terms and 16.7% mom in USD. The ISE30 index, again, boasted the best performance among our coverage, adding 18.6% mom in EUR terms and 23.9% mom in local currency (lcl) terms. Positive performances were also recorded in the WIG (+14.0% EU /13.0% lcl mom), the BUX (+12.6% EUR/12.0% lcl mom), the BET (+8.4% EUR/8.6% lcl...
HEADLINES: • ADNOC Distribution: pumped for growth (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Bank of Cyprus: strong ROTE uplift on the cards already (stays BUY) • OPAP: 3Q22 review - solid set of results, driven by strong online presence • Public Power Corporation: 3Q keeps company on track to meet FY22E guidance NEUTRAL • Fourlis: 3Q22 review - decent quarter and gross margin recovery • Huuuge Games: adjusted 3Q22 EBITDA in line with the preliminary figure, supportive FY guidance NEUTRAL • Warsaw St...
EME Equity Market – August 2022 Market performance – Turkey the biggest winner, in a predominantly bad month. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 1.2% mom in EUR and 2.8% mom in USD terms. Turkey’s ISE index outperformed all other indices, adding 24.9% mom in EUR terms and 25.1% in local currency terms. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 1.1% mom and 0.2% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Greece’s ASE Index had a muted performance and added only 0.6% mom. All the other indices across ...
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