Q1 adj. EBITDA of USD15m was USD11m above our estimate and USD7m above consensus. c50% of the beat came from accounting changes, while the other half came from stronger underlying operations. With greater transparency from the new reporting structure, we use a SOTP valuation based on 2024e peer-group multiples per segment, leading us to raise our target price to NOK85 (75). We reiterate our BUY and see more value left despite the strong share performance YTD.
We see this as a decent report, with Q1 adj. EBITDA of USD15m, USD7m above consensus. Underlying adj. EBITDA looks however to be broadly in line with expectations due to accounting changes in Feed Ingredients. The company sees a good market outlook across divisions and we see 2–4% positive revisions to consensus 2024e adj. EBITDA. We expect a slightly positive share price reaction today.
We forecast Q1 adj. EBITDA of USD4m, broadly in line with consensus of USD5m. With a new reporting structure being implemented from Q1, the main focus in the report (due at 07:00 CET on 26 April) will be headline numbers. We have trimmed our Qrill Aqua estimates for Q1 based on a low catch in Q4 and cut volumes sold in 2024–2026e by c4kt, based on higher krill oil production. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK75 (60) based on an increased valuation of Feed Ingredients.
Q4 adj. EBITDA of USD18m was broadly in line with our estimate and consensus; however, reported EBITDA was 26–30% below. A strategic review of Feed Ingredients has been initiated, and we estimate a fair value of NOK26/share for the division (9.0x estimated cash EBITDA), and NOK34/share for the remaining operations, based on 10% discounts to peer group multiples. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK60 (45), reflecting our SOTP valuation.
We see this as a mixed report, with results in line with expectations after adjusting for USD5.8m in restructuring one-offs. We see no material change to consensus 2024e adj. EBITDA, but expect a positive share price reaction as a strategic review of Feed Ingredients should help to crystallise value.
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