Transactions, CMD and halted DPS

This week Balder, Citycon and SBB announced divestments, Public Property Invest was assigned an IG rating by Fitch, and Corem hosted its CMD. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.45% for 2024e and 5.01% for 2025e.

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Slowdown in Germany, cautious outlook in NL

Improvement not without obstacles

Nibe Industrier (Hold, TP: SEK50.00) - The devil is in the details

Q3 marked a second consecutive quarter boosted by a positive contribution from weak-performing acquisitions. Heading into high season, we expect demand to pick-up and further margin improvement. However, having cut our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by 6% on average and our target price to SEK50 (52), we reiterate our HOLD on limited upside potential.

A bit messy, but still an underlying 5% beat

Rana Gruber (Buy, TP: NOK90.00) - Magnetite set for growth

Rana Gruber reported adjusted Q3 EPS of NOK2.4, in line with our estimate (no consensus), while EBITDA of NOK125m beat our forecast of NOK103m, due to a better-than-expected magnetite price. The company maintained its payout ratio of 60%, leading to a DPS of NOK1.5, below our NOK1.7 estimate. We reiterate our BUY and NOK90 target price.

The Capital Goods Data Miner – November 2024

Heads-up for report 15 November

Kojamo (Buy, TP: EUR10.50) - Expecting improved rental markets

The Q3 results were in line with our forecasts, with continued muted Finnish residential rental markets. However, we expect markets to gradually improve, given a low supply of newbuilds over 2025–2027e and falling unemployment rates. With declining interest rates, we also see the potential for the company to restart project developments in 2025–2026. On the current valuation, we find the risk/reward attractive. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to EUR10.5 (10).

Mixed Q3s and soft datapoint for Stockholm office market

This week, Hufvudstaden, Veidekke, Selvaag Bolig and Skanska reported Q3 results. Furthermore, Vasakronan (unlisted) reported soft vacancies and net lettings, which we consider a negative datapoint for peers such as Fabege and Hufuvdstaden. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.33% for 2024e and 4.88% for 2025e.

BEIJ/NIBE: US HVAC - Sep shipments +18% y-o-y

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Elektroimportøren (Buy, TP: NOK14.50) - Lighting up

Elektroimportøren continues to navigate a challenging market, but we find the Q3 adj. EBITDA beat encouraging, driven by improved profitability. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to NOK14.5 (9.5) on positive estimate revisions, reduced financial risk and peer group multiples expansion.

Share price +28% last 3M with room for more

HVAC&R: Improving sentiment at the 'KVP' day

B2Impact (Buy, TP: NOK11.00) - Set for Q4 investment ramp-up

Q3 cash EBITDA was down 13% YOY, as reduced secured collections and normalised REO sales offset lower opex and stronger unsecured collections. With an improved capital structure, the company is preparing to step up investments in Q4, reiterating its NOK2.5bn–3.0bn investment guidance for 2024. We have made limited EPS revisions for 2025–2026e, and reiterate our BUY and NOK11 target price.

Elektroimportøren (Hold, TP: NOK9.50) - Q3 above on improved profitabi...

We consider this a positive report for Elektroimportøren, including underlying figures above expectations due to improved profitability and revenue growth for Q4 so far. We expect 5% positive revisions to consensus 2024e adj. EBITDA and believe a positive share price reaction is warranted.

Soft cash-EBITDA, strong opex beat

Over-collection continues: unsecure (108%), secured (133%) & sale; Cash EBITDA of NOK 1,012m, -3% vs ABG and -7% vs cons; Stock down 2-4% (inv./ERC), as cons est rev. 2-4% (ERC/inv)

Arctic Fish (Buy, TP: NOK80.00) - Operational progress and strong 2025...

Q3 operating EBIT of EUR0.9m was in line with the pre-announced figure in the trading update. With a harvest volume of 3.4kt, the EBIT/kg margin was EUR0.27. The price achievement in Q3 was solid at 107% of the reference price, driven by good average harvest weight and strong superior share. The biological development and growth are stated to have remained steady. The 2024 volume guidance was edged up by 0.3kt to 10.4kt, while 2025 was strong at 15kt (+44 YOY). We reiterate our BUY and NOK80 tar...