Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite the risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, and Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebala...
Company Update | PTT Oil and Retail (OR TB/HOLD/Bt14.40/Target: Bt14.50) We expect 4Q25 net profit to be disappointing, as earnings are projected to decline both qoq and yoy, driven by significant extra losses. For 2026, concerns over further impairments are likely to persist, particularly related to assets in Cambodia. In 2025, OR closed approximately 30% of its PTT Stations and Café Amazon outlets in Cambodia. OR’s management expects greater clarity on the impairment situation by mid-26. Downg...
Top Stories Company Update | GFPT (GFPT TB/BUY/Bt9.80/Target: Bt13.50) We expect GFPT to post a 4Q25 core profit of Bt460m, up 48% yoy but down 35% qoq. Gross margin is projected to normalise, coming in at 14.8% in 4Q25, up yoy but down qoq. Looking ahead, we expect 1Q26 earnings to recover qoq, driven by higher livestock ASPs during the Chinese New Year and the low raw material costs of stock inventories. Maintain BUY on GFPT with a lower target price of Bt13.50 (previously Bt15.00). Company...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December pic...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property Demand stayed weak in Nov 25, with new-home sales in 28 cities down 42% yoy and second hand home prices in most cities falling. Land auctions in Shanghai and Hangzhou cooled, with most plots near reserve prices. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT on China property, with CR Land as our top pick for its consistent earnings outperformance. Sector Update | Macau Gaming Macau’s Nov 25 GGR reached MOP 21.1b, down 12% mom but up 14% yoy, and recovering to 92% o...
Company Update | PTT Oil and Retail (OR TB/BUY/Bt13.30/Target: Bt21.00) We expect 4Q25 net profit to rise qoq on seasonal demand, which reinforces our expectation that 2025 earnings could reach a record high. Management has several clear objectives: a) expand market share by 1% annually, b) lift daily traffic visitor numbers to 5.0m by 2030, and c) continue pursuing additional M&A opportunities in the lifestyle business. Despite being slightly disappointed with the KFC deal, we keep OR as our to...
Top Stories Company Update | Minor International (MINT TB/BUY/Bt20.20/Target: Bt38.00) MINT held an analyst meeting to discuss its 3Q25 results, and the tone was positive. Management is guiding a stronger 4Q25 RevPar, which will be boosted by an ADR uplift, demand in the Maldives, Thailand’s festive bookings, and the “We Travel Together” stimulus. A large US$1.2b-1.3b REIT planned for 2Q-3Q26 will support deleveraging. Value menus continue to boost food traffic, while margins stay intact. Net I...
Greater China Initiate Coverage | Pony AI Inc (PONY US/BUY/US$12.18/Target: US$26.10) Pony AI is a global leader in autonomous mobility, leveraging its virtual driver technology to enable the mass production and deployment of autonomous vehicles across diverse regions. We expect revenue to grow at a three-year CAGR of 65% from 2024-27, net loss to narrow, and bottom line to turn around in 2028, driven by large-scale commercialisation. Initiate coverage with BUY and a target price of US$26.10...
Company Results | PTT Oil and Retail (OR TB/BUY/Bt14.50/Target: Bt21.00) OR posted a net profit of Bt2.6b in 3Q25, up 19% qoq, surpassing both our and consensus expectations. The improvement was mainly supported by the recognition of substantial extra gains. Despite the low season, profit rebounded in 3Q25 thanks to solid marketing margins. Looking ahead, with 4Q25 entering peak tourism season, we expect further earnings growth, which should drive OR’s full-year 2025 net profit to a new record h...
Top Stories Company Results | Bangchak Corporation (BCP TB/BUY/Bt29.00/Target: Bt40.00) BCP posted a strong 3Q25 rebound with a net profit of Bt1.1b and core profit of Bt3.2b, driven by higher GRM at US$7.4/bbl and run rate 90% (265kbd) after Sriracha’s unit restart. EBITDA surged to Bt10.3b, while marketing margin rose to Bt0.85/litre and BCPG gained from Laos hydro and new wind projects. Despite minor inventory losses, all segments improved. Outlook remains positive with firm GRM, VLCC termi...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile The anti-involution policy boosted OEMs’ 3Q25 earnings by ending the price war. However, the industry disruptor BYD saw worsened liquidity due to sales slowdown and inventory pile-up. Auto part companies saw margin erosion in 3Q25 due to delayed impacts from the OEMs’ price war, but 4Q25 margin will stabilise. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Cut target price for Li Auto to HK$60.0. Raise target price for Weich...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&...
Greater China Sector Update | Internet Data from the initial phase of the 11.11 campaign set a compelling prelude for a mid-single-digit GMV growth in 4Q25. The new phase of 11.11 is characterised by a longer cycle, simplified promotion mechanics, and deeper technological integration. Platform competition has shifted from “traffic wars” to “efficiency wars”, as AI enhances demand-supply matching and instant retail breaks offline barriers, reducing consumer decision costs. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT....
Company Update | PTT Oil and Retails (OR TB/BUY/Bt13.90/Target: Bt21.00) We expect OR to post a net profit of Bt2.35 in 3Q25, up 5% qoq, supported by strong marketing margins that should offset the impact of the low season and weaker performance from Cambodia. Looking ahead, earnings in 4Q25 are projected to grow further qoq, driven by the high season, leading us to believe OR’s 2025 net profit would reach a record high. OR continues to be one of our top picks. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt21.0...
Top Stories Sector Update | Retail Home improvement retail appears more attractive than grocery retail as it is in the late stage of a downcycle. Grocery retailers will enjoy short-term benefits from the Half-Half Plus copayment scheme. Initiate coverage with BUY on GLOBAL, CPAXT and DOHOME, and HOLD for CRC. We are OVERWEIGHT on the retail sector. Top picks are CPALL and GLOBAL. Company Update | PTT Oil and Retails (OR TB/BUY/Bt13.90/Target: Bt21.00) We expect OR to post a net profit of Bt2....
OR offers a compelling business strategy that includes: a) branch expansion within the mobility business; b) growth in the EV business to capture rising vehicle demand; and c) M&A in the lifestyle business, with greater clarity expected in 4Q25, including the hotel business, which is also scheduled to begin construction in 4Q25. We keep OR as one of our top picks in the oil and gas sector. Maintain BUY. Target price of Bt20.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update PTT Oil & Retail Business (OR TB/BUY/Bt12.90/Target: Bt20.00) Business strategy focuses on creating a complete ecosystem. STECON Group (STECON TB/BUY/Bt6.10/Target: Bt9.00) On track to achieve new orders, optimistic about core operation in 2H25.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: YOY PV sales growth turns positive on price cuts. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results AAC Technologies (2018 HK/BUY/HK$43.72/Target: HK$57.70): 1H25: Margins miss due to transition period; meaningful recovery in 2H25. Maintain BUY. AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/HK$73.45/Target: HK$91.00): 1H25: In-line VONB growth; strong OPAT beat. EVE Energy (300014 HK/HOLD/ Rmb48.07/Target: Rmb50.00): 2Q25: Earnings miss due to lowe...
OR reported a qoq and yoy decline in 2Q25 net profit due to seasonal weakness, in line with our expectation but 14% below consensus estimate. However, effective execution of cost control measures led us to revise up our EBITDA margin assumptions for the lifestyle business. As a result, we now forecast a record-high net profit for 2025. We maintain OR as one of our top picks in the oil and gas sector. Upgrade to BUY with a new target price of Bt20.00.
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