reports
- Christer Magnergård
- Johan Skoglund
OX2 (Hold, TP: SEK60.00) - Potential transformation ahead
Q2 saw low project-sale volumes, higher cost of goods and project development, and increased opex due to a larger organisation YOY, leading to another quarter with negative EBIT. OX2 still has c2GW in active sales processes, with a large share being onshore, and management maintained its 2024 YOY EBIT growth guidance. It stated that it expects the majority of the profit to come in Q4 but that it comes with higher uncertainty. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK60 target price.
- Johan Skoglund
OX2 (Hold, TP: SEK60.00) - Limited earnings in Q2e
We expect Q2 to be another slow earnings and cash-flow quarter due to limited project sales, with 42.5MW energy-storage project Bredhälla the only announced and closed transaction during the quarter. However, the project sales pipeline looks largely intact as expectations of a back-end-loaded 2024 grow. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK60 target price given the ongoing bid from EQT, which we deem likely to go through.
- Johan Skoglund
OX2 (Hold, TP: SEK60.00) - Offer unlikely to be raised
On 13 May, EQT announced it had launched a take-private bid for OX2 at SEK60/share, representing a 43% premium to the previous close. We believe the bid is somewhat low given OX2’s 2024–2025e project sales pipeline and the depressed share price prior to the bid. However, we see a raised offer as unlikely, since the main owner, Peas Industries (45.6% of the shares), has irrevocably accepted the offer, and the acceptance hurdle is set at 50%. We have downgraded OX2 to HOLD (BUY) and cut our target...
- Johan Skoglund
OX2 (Buy, TP: SEK75.00) - Slow Q1, but strong outlook
Q1 brought low project sale volumes, leading to negative EBIT due to a larger organisation YOY. However, OX2 now has c2GW in active sales processes, a large share of which is onshore, and management maintained its guidance for YOY EBIT growth in 2024. We reiterate our BUY and SEK75 target price, and have raised our 2025e EBIT by 2%.
- Johan Skoglund
OX2 (Buy, TP: SEK75.00) - Slow Q1 expected
We expect Q1 to have been a slow quarter for earnings and cash flow, on low project-sales volumes. However, we have made limited changes to our 2024–2026e EBIT, as OX2 still has a healthy project sales pipeline of c1GW, which we assume could be concentrated towards Q2–Q4 2024. We reiterate our BUY and SEK75 target price.
- Johan Skoglund
OX2 (Buy, TP: SEK75.00) - Cash flow steals the show
Q4 EBIT was just above consensus, and OX2 met its full-year guidance of SEK1bn, and with quarterly FCF of SEK1.5bn, we consider the overall performance strong, while net cash is now c20% of its market cap. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK75 (68) on improved peer multiples and after nudging up our 2025e EBIT by 4%.
- Johan Skoglund
OX2 - Initiation of coverage - High energy (r)evolution
OX2 is a leading northern Europe renewables-focused developer with a track record of profitable growth and an asset-light balance sheet with high capital returns. We believe the stock has been unfairly punished by waning investor sentiment towards global clean-energy stocks, and initiate coverage with a BUY and SEK68 target price.
- Hanna Forsgren
- Olof Cederholm
- Hanna Forsgren
- Olof Cederholm
- Adrian Gilani
- Olof Cederholm
- Adrian Gilani
- Olof Cederholm
- Adrian Gilani
- Olof Cederholm
- Adrian Gilani
- Olof Cederholm
- Adrian Gilani
- Olof Cederholm
- Adrian Gilani
- Olof Cederholm
- Adrian Gilani
- Olof Cederholm
- Adrian Gilani
- Olof Cederholm
- Adrian Gilani
- Olof Cederholm
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.