For 1H25, we expect major SOE PM companies’ businesses to be largely on track. CGS sees higher revenue growth but faces a margin decline, OCF pressures, and high impairment risks, which could delay its recovery. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT for the sector. Amid slowing residential contract growth but steady retail sales, CR Mixc is favoured over COPH. Raise all PM companies’ target prices due to lower WACC and maintain ratings.
For 2024 results, we observed a generally stable business, with higher dividend payout ratios reflecting sustained profitability for PM companies. The divergence between SOEs and POEs was more pronounced. PM companies have softened their 2025 growth targets and the lower impairment risk of CGS is a noteworthy positive development. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s property management sector. Top picks: COPH, CR Mixc.
CR Mixc’s core attributable net profit grew 20.1% yoy, beating expectations. The basic payout ratio increased to 60% from 55%, with a 100% payout ratio including special dividends. The company’s urban space business has become a new driver of the property management segment and we see resilient shopping mall operations. Management sees potential upside on the basic DPS payout ratio. Raise our 2025/26 earnings by 7.2%/12.1% respectively. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$38.70.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$25.85/Target: HK$32.40) CR Land’s 2024 results are in line with our and consensus estimates. Its resilient mall portfolio is a highlight. Factoring in lower booked margins for property sales, we trim our 2025/26 earnings forecasts by 4.6%/4.0% respectively. Nevertheless, for 2025, a positive outlook for property sales and higher earnings from recurring income are expected to positively drive the company’s valuation. Maintain BUY and target price o...
GREATER CHINA Results CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$25.85/Target: HK$32.40) 2024: Results in line; positive outlook for property sales in 2025. CR Mixc (1209 HK/BUY/HK$34.50/Target: HK$38.70) 2024: Results beat with 100% payout ratio; pursuing high-quality growth. Giordano International (709 HK/BUY/HK$1.52/Target: HK$2.14) 2024: 2H24 revenue rebound; 3-5% revenue growth and improving net margin in 2025. Haidilao Internatio...
The property market marginally cooled down mom in Jan 25. We had pre-blackout calls with COLI/CR Land/COPH. For developers, we expect CR Land to report relatively resilient earnings in 2024 (-7% yoy) while COLI may see more margin pressure in 2H24. COPH is projected to see weaker-than-expected VAS revenue growth but margin improvement. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the China property sector and MARKET WEIGHT on the China property management sector. Top picks: CR Land and COPH.
We conducted channel checks on CR Mixc/PPS/CGS recently on their operational performance in 2024. CR Mixc is largely on track to achieve its target. PPS’ performance is below our expectations. We expect CGS to see a slight positive revenue growth and improved cashflow. For the sector, we have observed a common problem of worse cash collection. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Trim earnings and target prices. COPH remains our top pick, due to its high proportion of the counter-cyclical basic PM segment.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales down 10% yoy but up 8.5% wow; EVs gain on subsidy rollout. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao and Desay. Healthcare The challenging but rewarding journey of globalisation amid rising geopolitical risks. Internet ...
We visited Shenzhen talent park and Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre. Successful operation and innovative model of the projects proved CR Mixc’s strong management capabilities. CR Mixc’s malls saw improvement of SSSG in Oct 24 from the weak performance in 3Q24. Trim 2024/25/26 earnings forecasts by 1.2%/3.8%/6.4% respectively to factor in rising macro uncertainties. Cut target price by 16.3% to HK$32.15. Maintain BUY.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls The HSI and MSCI China both fell 4.4% mom in November, as investors took profit on the lack of new catalysts from the NPCSC meeting. Looking ahead, Sino-US tensions are expected to increase and Trump’s preference for hiking tariffs will be disruptive. We prefer domestic exposure and policy beneficiaries. We are adding Desay, Meituan, Mengniu, Tencent and Trip.com to our BUY list. We take profit on CATL and BYDE. Update CR Mixc Li...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Add Desay, Meituan, Mengniu, Tencent, and Trip.com to our BUY list. Take profit from CATL. Update CR Mixc Lifestyle (1209 HK/BUY/HK$29.20/Target: HK$32.15) Takeaways from reverse roadshow in Shenzhen. China Resources Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$23.25/Target:HK$32.40) Takeaways from reverse roadshow in Shenzhen. Small/Mid Cap Highlights Regina Miracle (2199 HK/Not Rated/HK$2....
GREATER CHINA Sector Property and Property Management Encouraging property sales during Golden Week; watching policy implementation and improvement in fundamentals in 4Q24. INDONESIA Asian Gems Corporate Highlights Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp10,450/Target: Rp12,000) Plenty of room to grow. Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/BUY/Rp5,325/Target: Rp6,560) Aspires to book 20% ROE in 2028. MALAYSIA Asian Gems Corporate Hi...
In 1H24, property management companies saw moderate growth in GFA and revenue, driven by basic PM services, but profitability was pressured by declining noncommunity VAS. The divergence between SOEs and POEs is more pronounced. SOEs are cautious about 2H24 due to limited contract expansion. POEs continue to face business deterioration. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s property management sector. Top pick is COPH for its counter-cyclical business model.
CR Mixc’s core attributable net profit grew 24.2% yoy, meeting market expectations. Including a special dividend, interim payout ratio increased from 36% to 102 % in 1H24. Revenue of the high-margin commercial management business grew 23.4% to Rmb2,850m, boosting gross profit margin to 34.0%. AR turnover days remained one of the lowest in the industry. Management aims for a gross profit margin of over 30% as well as an increased dividend payout ratio in 2024. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$33.70...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK/BUY/HK$16.46/Target: HK$19.50) Anhui Conch reported 1H24 earnings of Rmb3,325.6m (-48.6% yoy), representing 29% of our full-year estimate and below expectations. Gross margin for self-produced products fell to 23.0% (-4.6ppt yoy). The slump in cement ASP of 21.6% was steeper than the 16.0% reduction in cement’s unit production cost. 1H24 cement and clinker sales volume declined to 126m tonnes (-3.4% yoy), and management expects 2024 demand to...
GREATER CHINA Results Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK/BUY/HK$16.46/Target: HK$19.50) 1H24: Below expectations; exploring opportunities in overseas markets. CR Mixc (1209 HK/BUY/HK$23.25/Target: HK$33.70) 1H24: Results in line with surprise from special dividend. Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK/BUY/HK$12.34/Target: HK$19.60) 1H24: Core net profit up 13% yoy. Accelerated store opening pace in 2H24; dividend payout expected to remain at reasonable leve...
For 1H24, we expect major SOE PM companies’ businesses to be largely on track. Despite pressure on VAS from further contraction of the property market and weak consumption sentiment, PM companies continued to drive high-quality expansion of core business and stayed diligent in cost control. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Trim earnings and target prices to reflect pressure on VAS. We changed our top pick from PPS to COPH as it has higher potential for a rise in dividend payout ratio.
For 2023 results, the decline in non-community VAS revenue raised concerns while higher dividend payout ratio showed the profitability sustainability for PM companies. The divergence between SOEs and POEs is more pronounced in the business segment. SOEs lower their growth targets and impairment loss will continue to be major concerns for POEs. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s property management sector. Top picks: PPS & CR Mixc.
CR Mixc’s attributable net profit grew 32.8% yoy, beating expectations. The payout ratio jumped to 55% without special dividends. Operating efficiency improved further, and expansion of third-party shopping malls remains robust. Management hints that the dividend payout ratio may rise further in the future, with a conservative outlook for a retail sales recovery. Raise 2024/25 earnings by 4.2%/4.7% respectively. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$33.20.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Anta (2020 HK/BUY/HK$83.55/Target: HK$109.60) 2023: Results beat on margin; on track to fulfil three-year targets. China Overseas Property Holdings (2669 HK/BUY/HK$4.50/Target: HK$5.60) 2023: Weaker-than-expected results; development targets revised. CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$24.85/Target: HK$42.39) 2023: Results in line; clearer growth path ahead. CR Mixc (1209 HK/BUY/HK$23.60/Target: HK$33.20) 2023: Results beat with higher payout ratio; pursue high-quality grow...
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