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Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property Management: 1H25 results preview: SOEs' performance is ...

For 1H25, we expect major SOE PM companies’ businesses to be largely on track. CGS sees higher revenue growth but faces a margin decline, OCF pressures, and high impairment risks, which could delay its recovery. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT for the sector. Amid slowing residential contract growth but steady retail sales, CR Mixc is favoured over COPH. Raise all PM companies’ target prices due to lower WACC and maintain ratings.

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property Management: 2024 results wrap-up: Overall stable busine...

For 2024 results, we observed a generally stable business, with higher dividend payout ratios reflecting sustained profitability for PM companies. The divergence between SOEs and POEs was more pronounced. PM companies have softened their 2025 growth targets and the lower impairment risk of CGS is a noteworthy positive development. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s property management sector. Top picks: COPH, CR Mixc.

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services (1209 HK): 2024: Results beat ...

CR Mixc’s core attributable net profit grew 20.1% yoy, beating expectations. The basic payout ratio increased to 60% from 55%, with a 100% payout ratio including special dividends. The company’s urban space business has become a new driver of the property management segment and we see resilient shopping mall operations. Management sees potential upside on the basic DPS payout ratio. Raise our 2025/26 earnings by 7.2%/12.1% respectively. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$38.70.

Carol Dou Xiao Qin ... (+10)
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Damon Shen
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Gigi Cheuk
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Kate Luang
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Sunny Chen

Greater China Daily: Thursday, March 27, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$25.85/Target: HK$32.40) CR Land’s 2024 results are in line with our and consensus estimates. Its resilient mall portfolio is a highlight. Factoring in lower booked margins for property sales, we trim our 2025/26 earnings forecasts by 4.6%/4.0% respectively. Nevertheless, for 2025, a positive outlook for property sales and higher earnings from recurring income are expected to positively drive the company’s valuation. Maintain BUY and target price o...

Arsit Pamaranont ... (+18)
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Damon Shen
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Gigi Cheuk
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • Jack Lai Yuan Khai
  • Jieqi Liu
  • John Cheong Ming Chern
  • Kampon Akaravarinchai
  • Kate Luang
  • Philip Wong
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Sunny Chen

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, March 27, 2025

GREATER CHINA Results CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$25.85/Target: HK$32.40) 2024: Results in line; positive outlook for property sales in 2025. CR Mixc (1209 HK/BUY/HK$34.50/Target: HK$38.70) 2024: Results beat with 100% payout ratio; pursuing high-quality growth. Giordano International (709 HK/BUY/HK$1.52/Target: HK$2.14) 2024: 2H24 revenue rebound; 3-5% revenue growth and improving net margin in 2025. Haidilao Internatio...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property And China Property Management Strategy: Property market...

The property market marginally cooled down mom in Jan 25. We had pre-blackout calls with COLI/CR Land/COPH. For developers, we expect CR Land to report relatively resilient earnings in 2024 (-7% yoy) while COLI may see more margin pressure in 2H24. COPH is projected to see weaker-than-expected VAS revenue growth but margin improvement. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the China property sector and MARKET WEIGHT on the China property management sector. Top picks: CR Land and COPH.

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property Management: 2024 preview of CR Mixc/PPS/CGS.

We conducted channel checks on CR Mixc/PPS/CGS recently on their operational performance in 2024. CR Mixc is largely on track to achieve its target. PPS’ performance is below our expectations. We expect CGS to see a slight positive revenue growth and improved cashflow. For the sector, we have observed a common problem of worse cash collection. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Trim earnings and target prices. COPH remains our top pick, due to its high proportion of the counter-cyclical basic PM segment.

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+18)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Colin Lee
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ken Lee
  • Kong Ho Meng
  • Ming San Soong
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Stevanus Juanda
  • Sunny Chen
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, January 17, 2025

GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales down 10% yoy but up 8.5% wow; EVs gain on subsidy rollout. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao and Desay. Healthcare The challenging but rewarding journey of globalisation amid rising geopolitical risks. Internet ...

300014 EVE ENERGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
00992 LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
ASM PACIFIC TECHNOLOGY LIMITED
D05 DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
01093 CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP LIMITED
UNTR PT UNITED TRACTORS TBK
U11 UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD. (SINGAPORE)
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
01177 SINO BIOPHARMACEUTICAL LIMITED
EGH EUREKA GROUP HOLDINGS
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
002340 GEM CO. LTD. CLASS A
5Z0 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
01316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
02669 CHINA OVERSEAS PROPERTY HOLDINGS LIMITED
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
AXIATA AXIATA GROUP BERHAD
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
3933 THE UNITED LABORATORIES INTE
WPRTS WESTPORTS HOLDINGS BHD
HCM HUTCHISON CHINA MEDITECH LIMITED
06098 COUNTRY GARDEN SERVICES HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
TGIF 1933 INDUSTRIES
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
601138 FOXCONN INDUSTRIAL INTERNET CO. LTD. CLASS A
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
6049 POLY PROPERTY SERVICES CO LTD
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
09999 NETEASE INC
01209 CHINA RESOURCES MIXC LIFESTYLE SERVICES (RED CHIP)
3692 HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP
06160 BEIGENE LTD.
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
300765 CSPC INNOVATION PHARMACEUTICAL CO L
Z29 029 GROUP SE
02015 LI AUTO INC
600699 JOYSON ELECTRONICS CORP
Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

CR Mixc Lifestyle (1209 HK): Takeaways from reverse roadshow in Shenzh...

We visited Shenzhen talent park and Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre. Successful operation and innovative model of the projects proved CR Mixc’s strong management capabilities. CR Mixc’s malls saw improvement of SSSG in Oct 24 from the weak performance in 3Q24. Trim 2024/25/26 earnings forecasts by 1.2%/3.8%/6.4% respectively to factor in rising macro uncertainties. Cut target price by 16.3% to HK$32.15. Maintain BUY.

Damon Shen ... (+5)
  • Damon Shen
  • Gigi Cheuk
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Kate Luang

Greater China Daily: Tuesday, December 3, 2024

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls The HSI and MSCI China both fell 4.4% mom in November, as investors took profit on the lack of new catalysts from the NPCSC meeting. Looking ahead, Sino-US tensions are expected to increase and Trump’s preference for hiking tariffs will be disruptive. We prefer domestic exposure and policy beneficiaries. We are adding Desay, Meituan, Mengniu, Tencent and Trip.com to our BUY list. We take profit on CATL and BYDE. Update CR Mixc Li...

Arsit Pamaranont ... (+17)
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Damon Shen
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Gigi Cheuk
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Johnny Yum
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Kate Luang
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Krit Tanarattananon
  • Llelleythan Tan Tan
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Thailand Research Team
  • Vincent Khoo Boo Aik

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, December 03, 2024

GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Add Desay, Meituan, Mengniu, Tencent, and Trip.com to our BUY list. Take profit from CATL. Update CR Mixc Lifestyle (1209 HK/BUY/HK$29.20/Target: HK$32.15) Takeaways from reverse roadshow in Shenzhen. China Resources Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$23.25/Target:HK$32.40) Takeaways from reverse roadshow in Shenzhen. Small/Mid Cap Highlights Regina Miracle (2199 HK/Not Rated/HK$2....

BCP THE BANGCHAK PETROLEUM PCL
MAJOR MAJOR CINEPLEX GROUP PCL
CK CH. KARNCHANG PCL
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
FCT FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
PTT PTT PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
IRPC IRPC PUBLIC CO. LTD.
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
EZQ CHINA MENGNIU DAIRY CO. LTD.
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
ESSO ESSO (THAILAND)
N2IU MAPLETREE COMMERCIAL TRUST
IVL INDORAMA VENTURES PUBLIC CO. LTD.
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
BUOU FRASERS LOGISTICS & COMMERCIAL TRUST
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
PTTEP PTT EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION PLC
601668 CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION ENGINEERING CORP. LTD. CLASS A
599A SANDS CHINA LTD.
CPN CENTRAL PATTANA PUBLIC CO. LTD.
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
Q5T FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
TRUE TRUE CORP. PUBLIC CO. LTD.
CDREIT CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
SUN SUNTECH SA
KREIT KEPPEL REIT
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
GAM GAMUDA BHD
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
MTC MUANGTHAI CAPITAL PCL
PREIT PARKWAYLIFE REAL ESTATE
SPOST SINGAPORE POST LTD
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
PMAH PRESS METAL ALUMINIUM HOLDIN
CPALL TB CP ALL
HLBK HONG LEONG BANK BERHAD
SASSR SASSEUR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
RATCH RATCH GROUP PUBLIC CO. LTD.
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
2199 REGINA MIRACLE INTERNATIONAL
RGB RGB INTERNATIONAL BHD
ELITE ELITE COMMERCIAL REIT
UHU UNITED HAMPSHIRE US REIT
WHA TB WHA CORP PCL
CICT CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMMERCIAL TRUST
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
OXMU PRIME US REIT
HMN ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST
TIDLOR NGERN TID LOR PCL
CLCT CAPITALAND CHINA TRUST
KORE KEPPEL PACIFIC OAK US REIT
01209 CHINA RESOURCES MIXC LIFESTYLE SERVICES (RED CHIP)
3692 HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
EXCL XL AXIATA (EXCELCOMINDO)
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
BCOW 1895 BANCORP OF WISCONSIN INC
CLAR CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
AL2SI 2CRSI SA
DCRU DIGITAL CORE REIT MANAGEMENT PTE. LTD.
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
Z29 029 GROUP SE
IOIPG IOI PROPERTIES GROUP BHD
PEKAT PEKAT GROUP BHD
BRMI BOAT ROCKER MEDIA INC.
Benjaphol Suthwanish ... (+7)
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Damon Shen
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Llelleythan Tan Tan
  • Nurul Nazira Binti Abdullah
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Thursday, October 10, 2024

GREATER CHINA Sector Property and Property Management Encouraging property sales during Golden Week; watching policy implementation and improvement in fundamentals in 4Q24. INDONESIA Asian Gems Corporate Highlights Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp10,450/Target: Rp12,000) Plenty of room to grow. Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/BUY/Rp5,325/Target: Rp6,560) Aspires to book 20% ROE in 2028. MALAYSIA Asian Gems Corporate Hi...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property Management: 1H24 results wrap-up: Moderate growth in 1H...

In 1H24, property management companies saw moderate growth in GFA and revenue, driven by basic PM services, but profitability was pressured by declining noncommunity VAS. The divergence between SOEs and POEs is more pronounced. SOEs are cautious about 2H24 due to limited contract expansion. POEs continue to face business deterioration. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s property management sector. Top pick is COPH for its counter-cyclical business model.

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

CR Mixc (1209 HK): 1H24: Results in line with surprise from special di...

CR Mixc’s core attributable net profit grew 24.2% yoy, meeting market expectations. Including a special dividend, interim payout ratio increased from 36% to 102 % in 1H24. Revenue of the high-margin commercial management business grew 23.4% to Rmb2,850m, boosting gross profit margin to 34.0%. AR turnover days remained one of the lowest in the industry. Management aims for a gross profit margin of over 30% as well as an increased dividend payout ratio in 2024. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$33.70...

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+15)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Damon Shen
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Ken Lee
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Ming San Soong
  • Ringo Tang Chi Yu
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Sunny Chen
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Greater China Daily: Thursday, August 29, 2024

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK/BUY/HK$16.46/Target: HK$19.50) Anhui Conch reported 1H24 earnings of Rmb3,325.6m (-48.6% yoy), representing 29% of our full-year estimate and below expectations. Gross margin for self-produced products fell to 23.0% (-4.6ppt yoy). The slump in cement ASP of 21.6% was steeper than the 16.0% reduction in cement’s unit production cost. 1H24 cement and clinker sales volume declined to 126m tonnes (-3.4% yoy), and management expects 2024 demand to...

Arsit Pamaranont ... (+21)
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Damon Shen
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • Jack Lai Yuan Khai
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • John Cheong Ming Chern
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Keith Wee Teck Keong
  • Ming San Soong
  • Philip Wong
  • Ringo Tang Chi Yu
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Stevanus Juanda
  • Sunny Chen
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Regional Morning Notes - Thursday, August 29, 2024

GREATER CHINA Results Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK/BUY/HK$16.46/Target: HK$19.50) 1H24: Below expectations; exploring opportunities in overseas markets. CR Mixc (1209 HK/BUY/HK$23.25/Target: HK$33.70) 1H24: Results in line with surprise from special dividend. Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK/BUY/HK$12.34/Target: HK$19.60) 1H24: Core net profit up 13% yoy. Accelerated store opening pace in 2H24; dividend payout expected to remain at reasonable leve...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property Management: 1H24 preview: Development largely on track ...

For 1H24, we expect major SOE PM companies’ businesses to be largely on track. Despite pressure on VAS from further contraction of the property market and weak consumption sentiment, PM companies continued to drive high-quality expansion of core business and stayed diligent in cost control. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Trim earnings and target prices to reflect pressure on VAS. We changed our top pick from PPS to COPH as it has higher potential for a rise in dividend payout ratio.

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property Management: 2023 Results wrap-up: Entering a stage of h...

For 2023 results, the decline in non-community VAS revenue raised concerns while higher dividend payout ratio showed the profitability sustainability for PM companies. The divergence between SOEs and POEs is more pronounced in the business segment. SOEs lower their growth targets and impairment loss will continue to be major concerns for POEs. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s property management sector. Top picks: PPS & CR Mixc.

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

CR Mixc (1209 HK): 2023: Results beat with higher payout ratio; pursue...

CR Mixc’s attributable net profit grew 32.8% yoy, beating expectations. The payout ratio jumped to 55% without special dividends. Operating efficiency improved further, and expansion of third-party shopping malls remains robust. Management hints that the dividend payout ratio may rise further in the future, with a conservative outlook for a retail sales recovery. Raise 2024/25 earnings by 4.2%/4.7% respectively. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$33.20.

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+11)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Damon Shen
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Ken Lee
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Sunny Chen

Greater China Daily: Wednesday, March 27, 2024

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Anta (2020 HK/BUY/HK$83.55/Target: HK$109.60) 2023: Results beat on margin; on track to fulfil three-year targets. China Overseas Property Holdings (2669 HK/BUY/HK$4.50/Target: HK$5.60) 2023: Weaker-than-expected results; development targets revised. CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$24.85/Target: HK$42.39) 2023: Results in line; clearer growth path ahead. CR Mixc (1209 HK/BUY/HK$23.60/Target: HK$33.20) 2023: Results beat with higher payout ratio; pursue high-quality grow...

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