CR Mixc’s 2025 core net profit is expected to grow 12.2% yoy, slightly below consensus due to weakness in the VAS segment, while shopping mall operations will drive revenue and margin growth. The company maintains a 100% dividend payout policy, with cash collection improving in 2H25. It is positioned for accelerated commercial expansion under the 15th Five-Year Plan. Maintain HOLD with a target price of HK$43.00.
Top Stories Economics | Money Supply December’s monetary data was mixed. M1 growth slowed further to 3.8% yoy, slightly below expectations, while M2 growth improved to 8.5% yoy on stronger time deposits growth. On a positive note, new bank loans rebounded to Rmb0.91t, mainly driven by corporate and government borrowing, and new TSF also beat forecasts. However, outstanding bank loan growth stayed at a year-low of 6.4% yoy and TSF growth eased to 8.3% yoy, underscoring still-fragile credit deman...
Greater China Economics | Money Supply December’s monetary data was mixed. M1 growth slowed further to 3.8% yoy, slightly below expectations, while M2 growth improved to 8.5% yoy on stronger time deposits growth. On a positive note, new bank loans rebounded to Rmb0.91t, mainly driven by corporate and government borrowing, and new TSF also beat forecasts. However, outstanding bank loan growth stayed at a year-low of 6.4% yoy and TSF growth eased to 8.3% yoy, underscoring still-fragile credit ...
The PM sector delivered slower growth, weaker cash collection and a stable dividend payout ratio, while SOEs outperformed POEs with stronger margins and profit resilience. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT on the sector with PPS as our top pick, supported by its relatively resilient third-party expansion, higher net cash/close price ratio (0.67x), and potential upside on its dividend payout ratio.
While commercial business and malls delivered solid growth, property management weakened as urban space growth moderated and both VAS segments plunged over 30% yoy. Cash fell 10.7% hoh to Rmb12.5b and receivables rose 18.5% yoy, raising concerns on collection despite stable margins and reiterating 2025 earnings target. We maintain our earnings forecasts and downgrade to HOLD with a reduced TP of HK$41.05 to factor in weaker cash collection.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK/BUY/HK$24.46/Target: HK$28.90) Anhui Conch Cement reported 1H25 earnings of Rmb4,367.9m (+31.3% yoy), representing 42.5% of our full-year estimates, slightly above expectations. Gross margin for self-produced products rose to 28.9% (+5.8ppt yoy). Cement ASP edged up 1.5% yoy, while unit production cost fell 7.1% yoy, mainly on a 13.8% drop in fuel and power costs. Cement and clinker sales volume was broadly stable at 126mt (-0.4% yoy), outperfo...
Mainland property sales continued to weaken in July, which may weigh on the recovery of land sales. Potential policy support in 2H25 could be a positive catalyst. The Hong Kong property market showed signs of stabilisation: CCL index has turned positive ytd, while inventory of primary private residential units decreased 3.8% qoq in 2Q25. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on both sectors, favouring CR Land in China for its resilient performance. We also highlight our other top pick, CR Mixc, for its attract...
GREATER CHINA Strategy China & Hong Kong Property & Property Management Mainland market continues to weaken, while the Hong Kong residential market progresses with destocking; we highlight CR Land and CR Mixc as top picks. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Archi Indonesia (ARCI IJ/BUY/Rp770/Target: Rp1,280) Well-timed turnaround with true potential waiting to be unlocked. Results Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ/BUY/Rp4,750/Target: Rp6,000) 1H25: ...
For 1H25, we expect major SOE PM companies’ businesses to be largely on track. CGS sees higher revenue growth but faces a margin decline, OCF pressures, and high impairment risks, which could delay its recovery. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT for the sector. Amid slowing residential contract growth but steady retail sales, CR Mixc is favoured over COPH. Raise all PM companies’ target prices due to lower WACC and maintain ratings.
For 2024 results, we observed a generally stable business, with higher dividend payout ratios reflecting sustained profitability for PM companies. The divergence between SOEs and POEs was more pronounced. PM companies have softened their 2025 growth targets and the lower impairment risk of CGS is a noteworthy positive development. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s property management sector. Top picks: COPH, CR Mixc.
CR Mixc’s core attributable net profit grew 20.1% yoy, beating expectations. The basic payout ratio increased to 60% from 55%, with a 100% payout ratio including special dividends. The company’s urban space business has become a new driver of the property management segment and we see resilient shopping mall operations. Management sees potential upside on the basic DPS payout ratio. Raise our 2025/26 earnings by 7.2%/12.1% respectively. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$38.70.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$25.85/Target: HK$32.40) CR Land’s 2024 results are in line with our and consensus estimates. Its resilient mall portfolio is a highlight. Factoring in lower booked margins for property sales, we trim our 2025/26 earnings forecasts by 4.6%/4.0% respectively. Nevertheless, for 2025, a positive outlook for property sales and higher earnings from recurring income are expected to positively drive the company’s valuation. Maintain BUY and target price o...
GREATER CHINA Results CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$25.85/Target: HK$32.40) 2024: Results in line; positive outlook for property sales in 2025. CR Mixc (1209 HK/BUY/HK$34.50/Target: HK$38.70) 2024: Results beat with 100% payout ratio; pursuing high-quality growth. Giordano International (709 HK/BUY/HK$1.52/Target: HK$2.14) 2024: 2H24 revenue rebound; 3-5% revenue growth and improving net margin in 2025. Haidilao Internatio...
The property market marginally cooled down mom in Jan 25. We had pre-blackout calls with COLI/CR Land/COPH. For developers, we expect CR Land to report relatively resilient earnings in 2024 (-7% yoy) while COLI may see more margin pressure in 2H24. COPH is projected to see weaker-than-expected VAS revenue growth but margin improvement. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the China property sector and MARKET WEIGHT on the China property management sector. Top picks: CR Land and COPH.
We conducted channel checks on CR Mixc/PPS/CGS recently on their operational performance in 2024. CR Mixc is largely on track to achieve its target. PPS’ performance is below our expectations. We expect CGS to see a slight positive revenue growth and improved cashflow. For the sector, we have observed a common problem of worse cash collection. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Trim earnings and target prices. COPH remains our top pick, due to its high proportion of the counter-cyclical basic PM segment.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales down 10% yoy but up 8.5% wow; EVs gain on subsidy rollout. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao and Desay. Healthcare The challenging but rewarding journey of globalisation amid rising geopolitical risks. Internet ...
We visited Shenzhen talent park and Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre. Successful operation and innovative model of the projects proved CR Mixc’s strong management capabilities. CR Mixc’s malls saw improvement of SSSG in Oct 24 from the weak performance in 3Q24. Trim 2024/25/26 earnings forecasts by 1.2%/3.8%/6.4% respectively to factor in rising macro uncertainties. Cut target price by 16.3% to HK$32.15. Maintain BUY.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls The HSI and MSCI China both fell 4.4% mom in November, as investors took profit on the lack of new catalysts from the NPCSC meeting. Looking ahead, Sino-US tensions are expected to increase and Trump’s preference for hiking tariffs will be disruptive. We prefer domestic exposure and policy beneficiaries. We are adding Desay, Meituan, Mengniu, Tencent and Trip.com to our BUY list. We take profit on CATL and BYDE. Update CR Mixc Li...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Add Desay, Meituan, Mengniu, Tencent, and Trip.com to our BUY list. Take profit from CATL. Update CR Mixc Lifestyle (1209 HK/BUY/HK$29.20/Target: HK$32.15) Takeaways from reverse roadshow in Shenzhen. China Resources Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$23.25/Target:HK$32.40) Takeaways from reverse roadshow in Shenzhen. Small/Mid Cap Highlights Regina Miracle (2199 HK/Not Rated/HK$2....
GREATER CHINA Sector Property and Property Management Encouraging property sales during Golden Week; watching policy implementation and improvement in fundamentals in 4Q24. INDONESIA Asian Gems Corporate Highlights Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp10,450/Target: Rp12,000) Plenty of room to grow. Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ/BUY/Rp5,325/Target: Rp6,560) Aspires to book 20% ROE in 2028. MALAYSIA Asian Gems Corporate Hi...
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