Northern Lights

Komplett (Buy, TP: NOK17.00) - Green shoots

The Q4 results were above expectations, driven by a promising gross-margin trend despite a still-challenging market outlook. We reiterate our BUY and NOK17 target price as our trimmed estimates are offset by the recent market revaluation.

Northern Lights

Komplett (Buy, TP: NOK17.00) - Weak Q4e, but above consensus

We forecast a weak Q4, but not as weak as consensus (results due at 09:00 CET on 9 February). The market outlook remains challenging, but any signs of normalisation should be a positive trigger. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to NOK17 (18) on negative net profit estimate revisions.

Northern Lights

Komplett (Buy, TP: NOK18.00) - Subdued outlook

Komplett’s soft Q3 results were in line with expectations, but the outlook for a recovery is subdued and focus remains on synergy crystallisation and cost-cutting initiatives. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to NOK18 (28) on our negative estimate revisions.

Komplett - Tough times

Underlying EBIT estimates largely unchanged Challenging market will continue, but comps easier Our demand tracker shows a small improvement: BUY

Komplett (Buy, TP: NOK28.00) - Soft 2023 revenue guidance

We consider this a soft report, including Q3 figures broadly in line with consensus, soft revenue guidance for 2023 and slightly positive comments on the realisation of synergies and cost savings for NetOnNet. We expect consensus 2023 adj. EBIT to come down c30% and believe a negative share price reaction is warranted.

Komplett - Sales in-line, EBIT and CF better

Sales in -line, EBIT and CF better Outlook reiterated: Challenging market Better than feared, stock should move up

Komplett - Sales and earnings to slide

Major estimate cuts, ’23 EBIT down 22% Not the time to have an unsolved BS issue Weak quarters coming up, much already discounted

Komplett (Buy, TP: NOK28.00) - Soft Q3 expected

We are cautious ahead of the Q3 results (due at 07.00 CET on 25 October) expecting a continuation of the weak trends seen over the past few quarters. We reiterate our BUY as we continue to find the valuation attractive, with the stock trading at a 2024e P/E of 4.5x, but have cut our target price to NOK28 (30) on our negative estimate revisions.

Komplett - Improved CF

WC release of NOK 3-400m by YE’22 Important first step to improve CF, more to come Short-term gearing to remain high

Komplett - Rough market already discounted

Estimates down on lower sales expectations Headwinds also in Q3. Balance sheet is manageable. ’23e EV/EBIT 10.4x, BUY, but TP down to NOK 28 (42)

Northern Ligths

Komplett (Buy, TP: NOK30.00) - Near-term softness looks priced in

Komplett reported a weak Q2 and painted a gloomy H2 picture. The tough market is characterised by elevated inventories and cautious consumers reducing spending and shifting to other categories. We have cut our target price to NOK30 (45) on negative estimate revisions. However, we reiterate our BUY as the weak near-term outlook appears discounted, as the stock is trading at a 2024e P/E of 4x.

Nothern Ligths

Komplett (Buy, TP: NOK45.00) - Weak Q2 and soft outlook

We consider this a weak report for Komplett, including weak results and a soft outlook. We expect 20–40% negative revisions to consensus 2022e adj. EBIT. Although the stock has fallen significantly, and investor expectations were most likely lower than consensus, we expect a negative share price reaction today.

Komplett - Q2: Numbers fairly in line

Sales 4% below, adj EBIT NOK -10m vs ABGSCe -12m Market decline to continue impact Komplett in coming Qs Expect smaller cons adj EBIT estimate changes

Komplett (Buy, TP: NOK45.00) - Sailing in rough waters

We expect Komplett to report a weak Q2, hurt by tough comparables given a reversal of the positive pandemic effects seen last year, increased competition from physical stores, and a shift in discretionary consumption towards services resulting in elevated industry inventories with pressure on gross margins. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK45 (60) to reflect our reduced underlying estimates, masked by the acquisition of NetOnNet.

Komplett - Smart move, cutting dividends

No dividend for 2021 as expected by ABGSC Lower equity issue and debt to finance deal Estimate support, positive for share