EME Equity Market – December 2022 Market performance – Turkey closed the year by outperforming the other markets, yet again. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.0% mom in EUR terms and 5.9% mom in USD in December. Turkey was, again, the best performer, with the ISE30 index adding 6.3% mom in EUR terms and 10.8% mom in local currency terms. Positive performances were recorded by the WIG20 (+3.1% EUR / 3.2% lcl mom) and the ASE indices (+1.9% EUR mom) as well. On the other side, the Hungarian BUX de...
HEADLINES: • PKO BP: 2025E strategic targets sensible and quite conservative, but too little to inspire the marke • KGHM: signs option on potential acquisition of 50% stake in Kukamas project NEUTRAL • WOOD's Winter Wonderland EME Conference 2022: postcards from Prague • Colt CZ Group SE: postcard from Prague • 4iG: postcard from Prague • Magyar Telekom: postcard from Prague • 11 bit studios: postcard from Prague • AmRest: postcard from Prague • Benefit Systems: postcard from Prague • CC...
HEADLINES: • Telecom Egypt: the jewel of the Nile (BUY - initiation of coverage) • KGHM: medium-term headwinds, followed by long-term strength (Hold - reinitiation of coverage) • Terna Energy: 9M22 review - strong performance on higher trading and load factors • CCC: final 3Q22 results a notch above the prelims; 29% yoy sales growth in November POSITIVE • Shoper: GMV growth over Black Friday-Cyber Monday decelerated to 10% yoy, 22ppt below 3Q22 NEGATIVE • Polish media: WP TV's audience share ...
EME Equity Market – November 2022 Market performance – Turkey does it again, breezing past everyone else, once more, in November. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 11.6% mom in EUR terms and 16.7% mom in USD. The ISE30 index, again, boasted the best performance among our coverage, adding 18.6% mom in EUR terms and 23.9% mom in local currency (lcl) terms. Positive performances were also recorded in the WIG (+14.0% EU /13.0% lcl mom), the BUX (+12.6% EUR/12.0% lcl mom), the BET (+8.4% EUR/8.6% lcl...
HEADLINES: • Saudi Arabian tech: from oil to data and beyond (initiating on Solutions by STC with a BUY, and Jahez with a HOLD) • Motor Oil Hellas: motoring beyond oil (stays BUY) • Kofola: 3Q22 conference call takeaways NEUTRAL • Photon Energy: increases stake in Lerta, plans to take full control by the year-end • PKO BP: Puls Biznesu on potential changes in management board NEGATIVE • Shoper: key takeaways from the PAP interview with the CEO on the 2023E outlook NEUTRAL • Alrosa: Mir mine p...
HEADLINES: • Erste Bank: solid 3Q22, main positive is upbeat initial 2023E guidance, with 13-15% ROTE guidance POSITIVE • Alior Bank: 3Q22 results - net loss, but peak profitability on an underlying basis NEUTRAL • Komercni Banka: solid 3Q22, on track for delivery of 2022E expectations NEUTRAL • Turkcell: 3Q22 results - strong NI beat, driven by FX and derivatives POSITIVE • Migros: 3Q22 results - strong beat POSITIVE • BRD-GSG: 3Q22 - another solid quarter • MOL: 3Q22 results - better than exp...
HEADLINES: • Sirma Group Holding: healthy leverage position, amidst slowdown in IT (BUY - transfer of coverage) • Ilirija d.d.: summer season yields solid, yet uneven, results (downgraded to HOLD) • US macro: no surprises, but no respite; recession is coming • Raiffeisen Bank International: EUR 1.1bn in 3Q22 net profit, supported hugely by Russian operations POSITIVE • Bank Pekao: 3Q22 net loss, but results show strength and high profitability POSITIVE • ING BSK: 3Q22 results rather neutral a...
HEADLINES: • Cognor Holding: 3Q22 review - weak results, paired with increased business risks NEGATIVE • Asseco Poland: 3Q22 preliminary net profit at PLN 127m, in line with consensus NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: highlights from the 3Q22 earnings call • Shoper: 3Q22E - solid top line and slight qoq margin recovery (due on 3 November) NEUTRAL • InPost: 3Q22E preview (due on 9 November) NEUTRAL • LiveChat Software: 2Q22-23E preview - 23% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 22 November) • Short News (CEZ...
EME Equity Market – September 2022 Market performance – in a rough month for the markets, Turkey emerges as the top-performing region, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 8.3% mom in EUR terms and 10.7% mom in USD in September; while the ISE index outperformed all the other indices once again, but with a muted performance this time, adding just 1.0% mom in EUR terms and 0.1% in local currency terms. All the other indices recorded negative performances, with the Czech PX Index losing 4....
HEADLINES: • Gradus: finger lickin' good, but not at this price (SELL - transfer of coverage) • Turkey macro: CBRT likely heading for single-digit rates • Colt CZ Group SE: 2Q22 earnings and conference call POSITIVE • Shoper: results call takeaways - management sees room for profitability improvement POSITIVE • Polymetal: 1H22 financial results - no dividends, RU assets disposal complicated NEGATIVE • Nuclearelectrica: shareholders approve strategy for implementation of NuScale SMRs Project N...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: US macro - may be heading for 6% rates and recession • Shoper: 2Q22 adjusted EBITDA broadly in line with preliminary figure NEUTRAL • Santander Bank Polska: sees increase in OSII buffer - cross-read for Bank Pekao • PKO BP: sees OSII hike to 200bps (up from 100bps) • Polyus: 1H22 financial results - in line with consensus EBITDA, further pressure ahead NEUTRAL • Short News (COTE, SNP, SNG)
EME Equity Market – July 2022 Market performance – markets mostly up during the month, but Russia’s MOEX down 9.4% in EUR terms. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 2.3% mom in EUR, but lost 0.5% mom in USD in July. The Greek ASE Index was the best performing benchmark, advancing 5.0% mom in EUR. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 4.4% mom and 6.5% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Romania’s BET Index gained 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.3% mom in local currency, while Turkey’s ISE20 added...
HEADLINES: • Shoper: attractive but expensive (stays HOLD) • Hungary macro: MNB leaping towards positive real rates • NLB Group: issuance of senior preferred notes • Santander Bank Polska: 2Q22E results preview (due on 28 July) • Alior Bank: 2Q22E results preview (due on 3 August) • mBank: 2Q22E results preview (due on 3 August) • Bank Pekao: 2Q22E results preview (due on 4 August) • Short News (BFT)
We maintain our HOLD recommendation on Shoper. Our new 12M PT of PLN 43.4 (down 36%) offers limited 3% upside potential. We have turned more positive on Shoper’s revenue growth opportunities (3Y revenue CAGR up to 46%), but note also the substantial investments required. With the material headcount expansion and continued work on new services, we see limited room for margin recovery in the short- to medium-term. We cut our 2022-24E adj. EBITDA margin expectations from c.44% previously to 27-29%,...
HEADLINES: • Allterco: taking 120%+ profit (downgraded to HOLD) • OMV: incident at Schwechat Refinery could cost EUR 200m • Czech Republic macro: inflation reaches 16% yoy in May • Romania macro: inflation reaches 14.5%yoy in May • Russia macro: CBR cuts to 9.50%, with more to come • Cyfrowy Polsat: establishes collateral for liabilities of Great Wind and grants loan to PAK-PCE NEUTRAL • Erste Bank: potential new CEO at Erste Bank may be announced next week • 11 bit studios: publishing agr...
EME Equity Market – May 2022 Market performance – markets down mostly, as MSCI EM Europe Index declines 3.6%. The MSCI EM Europe Index fell 3.6% mom and 2.0% mom in EUR and USD terms, respectively, in May. The best-performing index was the Russian MOEX, which added 6.3% mom in EUR terms, but declined 3.7% mom in local currency. However, we note that, with the CBR ban on short selling and restrictions on international investors, as well various sanctions, this performance is not fully comparable ...
HEADLINES: • Cognor Holding: record results could serve as re-rating trigger (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Hungary macro: taxes and budget consolidation • Alpha Bank: strong 1Q22 numbers, with upside risk for FY22E estimates POSITIVE • Kernel: 3Q22 EBITDA materially below our estimates, amid weak farming segment result NEGATIVE • Aegean Airlines: 1Q22 - small beat, fare levels exceed expectations, summer outlook encouraging POSITIVE • Public Power Corporation: 1Q22 earnings in line, still ...
HEADLINES: • Hungary macro: Orban 5 begins with a bang • Bittnet Systems: 1Q22 results confirm full-year outlook (stays HOLD) • EME Macro/Strategy: overview charts for peripheral countries • Colt CZ Group SE: strong 1Q22 beat, FY22E guidance intact POSITIVE • Eurobank: strong 1Q22, upside risk for targets and our forecasts • CCC: final 1Q22 results below prelims on write-downs related to Russian market; strong start to 2Q NEGATIVE • STS Group: 1Q22 strong, as expected; FY22E guidance maintai...
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