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ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Mikkel Kousgaard Rasmussen
ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Mikkel Kousgaard Rasmussen
ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Mikkel Kousgaard Rasmussen
ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Mikkel Kousgaard Rasmussen
ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Mikkel Kousgaard Rasmussen
ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Mikkel Kousgaard Rasmussen
ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Mikkel Kousgaard Rasmussen
ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Mikkel Kousgaard Rasmussen

Q2e will likely deviate from usual seasonality

Q2e: 21% ARR growth and adj. EBITDA of DKK 1.1m. '24e likely to be even more back-end loaded vs. previous years. Adj. EBITDA up 6-4% in '24e-'26e, FVR of DKK 6-14.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Mikkel Kousgaard Rasmussen

Q1 not as shabby as it initially looked

23% ARR growth: strong new sales, with churn and uplift weaker, but one-time effects meant it was not that shabby after all. '24e-'26e EBITDA up 1-7% (low numbers): FVR kept at DKK 6-14

ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Mikkel Kousgaard Rasmussen
ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Mikkel Kousgaard Rasmussen

Focus on profitability intensifies

Q1e: We expect 25% ARR growth and adj. EBITDA of DKK -1.9m. Likely to reiterate FY'24 guidance with no material change in demand. FTE reduction lifts '24e-'26e adj. EBITDA by 19-5%.

Mikkel Kousgaard Rasmussen ... (+2)
  • Mikkel Kousgaard Rasmussen
  • Morten Larsen

Penneo - Q3 a tad on the soft side, requiring a strong Q4

Q3 ARR ~2% lower vs. ABGSCe, adj. EBITDA better Reiterated guidance requires strong ARR growth in Q4 Long-term case intact: a quality offering in large markets

Mikkel Kousgaard Rasmussen ... (+2)
  • Mikkel Kousgaard Rasmussen
  • Morten Larsen

Penneo - ARR slightly lower, continuing to invest

Q3 ARR of DKK 65m vs. ABGSCe at DKK 67m Recently adjusted FY’22 guidance reiterated Only minor downward rev.; neutral share reaction likely

Mikkel Kousgaard Rasmussen ... (+2)
  • Mikkel Kousgaard Rasmussen
  • Morten Larsen

Penneo - Short-term headwinds from a tough macro

We expect Q3 ARR of DKK 67m, ’22e ARR of DKK 70m Short-term headwinds; we cut ’22e-‘24e ARR by 10-22% Still a strong long-term case; high growth should return

Mikkel Kousgaard Rasmussen ... (+2)
  • Mikkel Kousgaard Rasmussen
  • Morten Larsen

Penneo - ABGSC’s DK small/mid-cap seminar feedback

Mgmt. with emphasis on low churn and high uplift Confident in demand for Sign and KYC offerings Sees no need for new capital raise

Mikkel Kousgaard Rasmussen ... (+2)
  • Mikkel Kousgaard Rasmussen
  • Morten Larsen

Penneo - Impressive SaaS metrics, investing in growth

Q2’22 slightly on the weak side Good potential if strong SaaS metrics continue New 1-year fwd. fair value range of DKK 9-24 (12-26)

Jesper Billeskov
  • Jesper Billeskov

Penneo - Succesfully raises more cash than expected

DKK 60m raise vs. its own ambition of just DKK 20-40m Current guidance assumes no growth-fueling capital raise Cash is abundant on our ests. - M&A on the horizon?

Jesper Billeskov
  • Jesper Billeskov

Penneo - Downsizes equity raise and guides softly

No surprises in pre-announced Q4 ARR and EBITDA Soft ’22 guidance, contemplated equity raise downsized ARR growth the key share price driver, FVR 12-26

Jesper Billeskov
  • Jesper Billeskov

Penneo - Releases prelim. ARR and adj. EBITDA figures

Sequential ARR growth back in double digits We look for 50% ARR growth in ‘22e 5.2x sales in ‘22e, FVR 14-29 (20-37)

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