NXST/TGNA: How will Trump’s New Posts and the WBD Battle Affect the De...

Recently, President Trump posted something the market perceived as negative news for the NXST/TGNA deal, sending both stocks down. We published a note in which we laid out why we believed that the risk to the deal has risen but still thought the odds favored approval. Some have challenged our view, and Trump subsequently directly criticized Nexstar’s news programming. In addition, the battle about WBD media consolidation have dominated headlines. In this note, we address how Trump’s most rece...

An Investor Framework for analyzing the WBD Battle: Phases and Scenari...

Investors are struggling to understand the antitrust and judicial process that will determine who will win WBD’s assets. We thought it would be helpful to frame the (at least three and up to six) phases of the process and the scenarios within each. In this note, we outline those phases and provide policy related guideposts to follow as the game plays out.

5 Things to Know in Investing This Week - The It Just Doesn’t Matter I...

Trump Helps/Hurts/Muddles PSKY Effort, Illustrating Ellison Antitrust ...

President Trump has said that the ownership of CNN must change, a potential sign that he is likely to instruct his DOJ to block the proposed NFLX purchase of WBD, as CNN is not part of the deal, while it would be part of a PSKY deal. In this quick note, we discuss how that comment illustrates the Ellison Antitrust Paradox we wrote about earlier this week.

The Ellison Antitrust Paradox: They Need Trump but Trump Card Could Ba...

PSKY has challenged the WBD board decision to accept the NFLX bid to buy WBD, arguing that WBD is “pursuing an inferior proposal” that would lead to “a challenging regulatory approval process.” In this note we quickly identify several problems with the Ellison approach that we have not seen reflected in the coverage this morning.

Update on WBD: What Trump Transaction Tax Could NFLX Pay?

Yesterday, multiple stories appeared on how the bidding for WBD by PSKY, NFLX and CMSCA is playing out, the biggest one—that WBD is now exclusively negotiating with NFLX—coming out late last night. In this note we update our thinking on the implications of the news and our sense where the game is headed.

As WBD Collects Bids, Has Anything Changed in Likely Government’s Appr...

Bids are due tomorrow for purchasing the WBD’s assets. In this note, we update our thoughts on the government’s likely reaction while also pointing out other market developments that may prove critical to investor thinking about what’s next.

WBD Drama Continues: What are Known Knowns?

The last several weeks have featured tons of analysis about potential bids for WBD. We think it dangerous to have conviction about who will bid what amount for what assets; the potential bids have many known unknowns. One, however, can have conviction about certain principles underlying the government review of the eventual proposed acquisition. In this note we address what we think investors should understand about that review, with some key points at odds with common perceptions.

Trump Administration Confirms Media Antitrust Policy (and It’s Not Abo...

The New York Post just ran a story headlined “Trump Admin Favors Paramount Skydance in Race to Buy Warner Bros. Discovery.” That conclusion is no surprise; it confirms our previous published analysis. It also, however, lays out new information about the Trump approach to reviewing deals, particularly involving media. In this note we analyze what the article signifies, including how it is an effort to lower bidding tension that will result in a “Trump Transaction Tax” on WBD shareholders, and h...

Will Newsmax Be Able to Kill the Nexstar/Tegna Deal?

Press reports indicate that Chris Ruddy, the CEO of Newsmax and close friend of the President, is leading a charge on Capitol Hill to kill the Nexstar-Tegna deal. In this note, we analyze the impact of that opposition on the prospects for government approval of the transaction.

Impact of Government Shutdown on FCC/Telecom/Media

As of this morning, it appears that the United States government is likely to shut down on October 1. In this note we provide some background on shutdowns and its impact on our sector.

Implications of Nexstar and Sinclair Capitulation on Media Policy

Nexstar and Sinclair both capitulated to ABC in that they agreed to run the Kimmel show without ABC or Kimmel apologizing or in other ways acceding to demands that Sinclair had made. In this note, we summarize the key lessons for investors from the last week as we head into a historic shift in broadcast ownership, a shift whose implications will filter throughout the media ecosystem.

Winners and Losers (in Capital Markets) in the Kimmel Saga

Now that Kimmel is back on the air, is the saga of his suspension over from a capital markets perspective? We think not. In this note, we outline what we think will be the effect as the media sector wrestles with technological, market, and policy changes, as well as who we think the winners and losers will be in the dynamics that emerge from the twists and turns of the last week.

Will FCC Revoke ABC Licenses?

In an interview, FCC Brendan Carr said ABC could lose its broadcast license due to comments Jimmy Kimmel made about Charlie Kirk. Shortly thereafter, ABC announced that it was suspending Kimmel “indefinitely,” and Trump also suggested license revocation was justified. In this note, we review the issues involved with and probabilities of the FCC successfully revoking ABC licenses or otherwise taking further action against ABC.

How Would the Government Review a Paramount/WBD Deal

Paramount is reportedly preparing to make an offer to buy WBD. In this note we provide preliminary thoughts on the government review process if Paramount and WBD reach an agreement.