reports
- Linus Sigurdson
- Linus Sigurdson
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
From the past week, we highlight: 1) we raised our target price on Latour to SEK285 (280), but reiterated our HOLD; 2) Kinnevik-owned Lunar raised SEK282m of new capital; and 3) we will host an investor lunch with Latour’s CEO Johan Hjertonsson at our Stockholm office next week.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
The key takeaways from this week are: 1) we raised our target price on Investor to SEK290 (260) as we see continued outperformance characteristics; 2) we cut our target price on Kinnevik to SEK135 (140) but reiterated our BUY, as we see continuously declining writedown risk in a more concentrated growth portfolio; and 3) VNV Global reported an unchanged Q1 NAV QOQ in USD terms.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
The key takeaways from the past week are: 1) we raised our target price on VEF to SEK3.5 (3.4) and reiterated our BUY; 2) Kinnevik lowered the value of its unlisted portfolio by 5% QOQ in Q1 and proposed a SEK23/share cash distribution; and 3) Patricia Industries reported a strong Q1 in Johan Forssell’s last quarterly report as Investor’s CEO.
- Linus Sigurdson
VEF (Buy, TP: SEK3.50) - Positive momentum continues
VEF wrote up its portfolio by 1% QOQ in Q1 (in USD terms). We believe the underlying portfolio performance remains healthy, and the USD10m up round in TransferGo strengthens our conviction in VEF’s NAV valuations as VC dealmaking continues to pick up after a lacklustre 2023. In light of these developments, we find the 56% discount to NAV excessive and expect a positive re-rating as VEF looks to make an exit this year. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK3.5 (3.4).
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
Our key takeaways from the past week are: 1) we reiterated our HOLD on Industrivärden, but raised our target price to SEK380 (340); 2) VEF portfolio company TransferGo raised USD10m in an up round; and 3) we have higher conviction in Kinnevik’s NAV, following recent strength in VC fundraising.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
Our key takeaways from this week are: 1) Walgreens made a USD5.8bn impairment charge in its Q2 report related to its VillageMD holding; 2) Henrik Tjärnström joined the board of Creaspac; 3) we expect a neutral to slightly positive NAV trend in VEF’s Q1 report; and 4) Industrivärden is due to kick off the Q1 reporting season on 8 April.
- Linus Sigurdson
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
Our key takeaways from this week are: 1) we initiated regular coverage of VEF with a SEK3.4 target price, highlighting its structural growth and re-rating potential; 2) Kinnevik hosted an informative session about its software strategy; 3) VNV Global participated in Voi’s USD25m capital raise. The weekly navigator will be off next week and return the following week.
- Linus Sigurdson
VEF - Initiation of coverage - Emerging from the VC winter
We like the long-term story of structural growth from financial inclusion in emerging markets, with VEF in our view offering rare access to some of the most interesting companies and geographies. With its portfolio now maturing (e.g. Creditas reaching operating breakeven), VEF looks set to crystalise value and extend its track record of successful exits. We believe today’s 60% discount to NAV offers an attractive entry point ahead of a potential re-rating of growth assets in a benign interest ra...
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
Our key takeaways from this week are: 1) Kinnevik led a USD110m funding round in Mews, deploying USD41m; 2) VEF-owned Creditas looks set for profitable growth after achieving operating profitability in December; and 3) Investor-owned EQT hosted a CMD, and has seen YTD fund commitments of >EUR25bn ahead of a potentially improving IPO market.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
Our key takeaways from this week are: 1) Kinnevik agreed to divest its entire shareholding in Tele2 for a total consideration of SEK13bn, opening the way for potential shareholder distributions; and 2) following the Q4 reporting season, we prefer Investor (BUY) and Kinnevik (BUY), have a neutral view on Latour (HOLD), and regard Lundbergs (SELL) and Industrivärden (HOLD) as potential funding candidates.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
Our key takeaways from this week are: 1) we downgraded Lundbergs to SELL with an unchanged SEK485 target price following a change of analyst, and as we find the premium to NAV unwarranted in light of our forecast NAV decline in 2024; 2) VNV Global sold assets for up to USD58m, bringing it one step closer to funding its January 2025 bond; and 3) Bure grew its NAV by 33%, including dividends in 2023.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
Key takeaways from the past week: 1) we downgraded Latour to HOLD (BUY), with a new SEK280 (245) target price, as we find the near-term upside risk rather limited at a 36% premium to NAV going into a potentially tough 2024; 2) Lundbergs is set to report Q4 results next week following strong share price performance after the news of its inclusion in the Nasdaq OMXS Benchmark index.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
Key takeaways from the past week: 1) we downgraded Industrivärden to HOLD (BUY) with a new SEK340 (330) target price following TSR gains of 33% in 2023; 2) VEF released a research report on its Brazilian embedded finance company Gringo and the Brazilian driver ecosystem; and 3) Latour’s Q4 results are due on 12 February, where we see a less appealing risk/reward given a fairly high 45% premium to NAV.
- Linus Sigurdson
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
The key takeaways from this week are: 1) we upgraded Kinnevik to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to SEK145 (110), as we see the stock as a good way to get growth exposure in 2024; 2) we increased our target price for Investor to SEK260 (250), as we see a benign outlook for Patricia Industries; 3) VEF raised its NAV by 5% QOQ amid signals of improving sentiment for VC; and 4) VNV and Creades reported end-Q4 NAVs.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
The key takeaways from this week are: 1) VNV Global is looking for exit opportunities in 2024; 2) Kinnevik-owned cleantech company Aira raised SEK1.6bn in a series B round; 3) Latour continued to make acquisitions; and 4) Investor is set to kick off the Q4 earnings season at 08:15 CET on Friday, 19 January.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
The key takeaways from this week are: 1) we expect Kinnevik to raise the valuation of its unlisted portfolio by high-single digits in its Q4 results; 2) VEF could see some tailwinds in 2024; 3) Latour Industries made an acquisition; and 4) we are hosting an investor lunch with VNV Global’s CEO Per Brilioth at our Stockholm office next week. From Kinnevik’s Q4 pre-silent analyst call, we highlight: 1) we expect a high-single digit positive revaluation of its unlisted portfolio in its Q4 results, ...
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