reports
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
EM Towers Q2 CY24 review: Improving trends in China and Africa, Indon...
Revenue and EBITDA trends improved again for China Tower, which alongside stable depreciation supported bottom-line momentum. In Indonesia, MTEL and TOWR continued to perform where the latter benefited from faster growth in its Fibre business thus should act as a buffer should the XL and Smartfren deal were to proceed.
- Chris Hoare
EMEA & African Telcos & Towers - High Yield Review – Initiate Coverage...
Following similar efforts in Europe and LatAm we are launching coverage on the HY Telcos & Towers in EMEA & Africa. New names under coverage include Helios (also initiated on equity, pt GBp140), Axian Telecom and Liquid Intelligent. We also address IHS Towers (pt cut to US$ 6), VEON and Helios’ bonds.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
IHS Towers (Buy, TP: $8, +158%) Q2 24: Solid quarter and encouraging ...
IHS Towers has reported a solid set of Q2 results. Organic top line growth has seen a strong acceleration, driven by Nigeria, while margins improved nicely too. There was no new news regarding the strategic review. However, the company made a key announcement last week about the contract renewals with MTN Nigeria (HERE).
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +73%) IHS Towers (Buy, TP: $8, +167%) MTN and I...
Both MTN Nigeria and IHS Nigeria have announced the renewal and extension of all their MLAs in Nigeria, including new financial terms. This development is materially positive for both companies in our view. This means all MLAs in Africa between MTN and IHS have now been renewed and extended. Separately, MTN has also announced the exit from Guinea-Bissau.
- Chris Hoare
EM Towers Q1 CY24 review: Better overall; trimmed price targets for I...
The outperformer this quarter was China Tower, with stronger trends across the board. Indus continues to grow at a faster pace, but we think the market is too optimistic on Indus’ ability to turn this into cash as it is driven by single tenancy towers. In Indonesia the big news is that XL and Smartfren are in talks which has the potential to be significant for both TBIG and TOWR, and so despite better trends we downgrade price targets
- Chris Hoare
IHS Towers (Buy, TP: $8, +144%) Q1 24: Slower growth (as expected), i...
IHS Towers has reported a slower quarter as expected. Top line performance was solid and came in ahead of expectations, but EBITDA growth was below expectations. Capex this quarter is well below historic levels as the company is now focused on cash generation and rebuilding the balance sheet. As a result, OpFCF margins improved.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
IHS Towers (Buy, TP: $10, +161%) Feedback from small group call
We hosted a small group zoom call with the IHS CFO, Steve Howden, and Head of IR, Colby Synesael yesterday. The company has had a torrid time over the last 2 years, but operationally has proven relatively resilient to intense pressure in our view. Our takeaway from the call was cautiously positive, though of course lots depends on Nigerian Macro.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
IHS Towers (Buy, TP: $10, +80%) IHS Towers – Q3 23: Solid underlying ...
IHS Towers has reported another solid top line performance on an underlying basis and KPIs were good. As expected, headline trends have materially slowed given Q3 is the first quarter fully impacted by the NGN devaluation. Guidance has been maintained but the company highlighted that EBITDA is now expected to be towards the lower end of the range.
- Chris Hoare
IHS Towers (Buy, TP: $20, +175%) Q2 23: Good underlying performance, ...
IHS Towers has reported a good set of results on an underlying basis with both revenue and EBITDA trends accelerating and announced a modest share buyback program. We continue to think that the long-term fundamentals for IHS remain strong and remain Buyers.
- Chris Hoare
EM Tower Trends Africa outperforming; Q1 CY2023 review
Amongst our EM Tower coverage, African TowerCos continue to outperform. At this stage, we prefer IHS as it offers the best EBITDA growth profile, coupled with its Project Green and considering that diesel prices in Nigeria are falling, we should see meaningful pull through for the year, despite the recent devaluation of the Naira.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
IHS Towers (Buy, TP: $20, +135%) Q4 22: Another strong quarter; encou...
IHS Towers has reported a strong set of Q4 results. Organic top line and EBITDA trends remained strong in Q4, as a result the company has exceeded its FY22 targets. The company has also provided a very encouraging guidance for FY23 we think.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
New Street: African Telcos & Towers Outlook 2023; Politics & Macro
2022 was a tougher year than we expected for African Telcos & Towers. While fundamentals remained generally good, the war in Ukraine and its impact especially on fuel prices as well as other macro pressures created some strong headwinds. While some of these are perhaps inflecting, we think in many ways 2023 will remain a tough environment, with headwinds in South Africa and the Nigerian election.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
New Street: EM Towers Q3 CY2022 review: A decent quarter for the EM s...
Q3 was a decent quarter overall for EM Tower companies. In Indonesia, headline growth slowed due to TBIG’s 2012 contract expiration but was otherwise healthy on an organic basis, up mid-single digits. There was a small slowdown in top line trends for Indus and China Tower, but performance was broadly in line with our expectations.
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
New Street: IHS Towers (Buy, TP: $20, +180%) Integrating Project Gree...
We show in this short note our new forecasts for IHS Towers after integrating Project Green and revising forecasts following the upgraded guidance post Q3 results. Our thesis and price target remain unchanged. We also show in this note how IHS compares with the other EM telcos of our universe from a growth and valuation standpoint, which highlights that IHS shares are undervalued currently.
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