reports
- Chris Hoare
South African Telcos Solid H1 but expect prepaid weakness; CY25 H1 re...
Despite a small slowdown in MSR trends, the SA market saw further improvements in total revenue growth, EBITDA and OpFCF margins in H1. Telkom continued to gain revenue share in mobile, driven by prepaid while Vodacom continued to gain share in fixed. Trends on the SA market have been improving since two years ago, helped by the reduction in loadshedding and an improvement in the macro environment.
- Chris Hoare
Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Another good performance; Q2 25 review
The Sub-Saharan African (SSA) operators performed well again in Q2 with service revenue trends accelerating further, and stable OpFCF margins. MTN was the outperformer in terms of both local currency and $ top line performance in Q2, Airtel performed well too. Nigeria has contributed meaningfully this quarter, with local currency growth there accelerating to above 60%. The full effect of the price increase in Nigeria has helped and we expect another strong performance
- Chris Hoare
EM Tower Trends Q2 CY25 review: Stable; Upgrade IHS and Helios price...
Tower revenue trends were stable at a slower pace across the board except for India’s Indus Tower as it benefited from VIL’s network catch up spend. However, EBITDA margins continue to generally improve except in Indonesia which faces the near-term pressure of the XL-Smartfren consolidation. We continue to see IHS as our preferred EM Towerco as it recovers from the numerous challenges of the past few years. We have upgraded our price targets for HIS (to US$10) and Helios (to £1.80).
- Chris Hoare
Nigerian Telcos Q2 25 review: Very strong; Upgrade MTN and AAF price ...
Local currency growth accelerated to above 60% in Q2 (from 40% in Q1), driven by a full quarter impact from the 50% price increase approval, and the improving macro. EBITDA performance in Q2 was very strong for both players and especially for MTN.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Towers - A Consistent Approach to EFCF and Shareholder Remun...
Following a similar note we published on the EM Telco sector, we apply the same consistent approach to Equity FCF for Global EM Towers. We have preferred Telcos over Towers for some time, as the drivers of upside for the Telcos (consolidation and declining capital intensity) is a headwind for the Towers.
- Chris Hoare
EM Towers Q1 CY25 review: Steady as she goes
Tower revenue trends were slower across the board except for India’s Indus Tower as it benefited from VIL’s network catch up spend. However, EBITDA margins are improving except in Indonesia which faces the near-term pressure of the XL-Smartfren consolidation.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
GEM Telcos: Consolidation – THE theme driving improved trends for EM T...
Earlier this month we published on how Global EM Telco Capex is falling rapidly, in large part driven by consolidation. On average EM Telco markets have fallen from a peak of 7 players to under 3. We expect many to end up with 2, or even a single network. How much further far might this cut capex?
- Chris Hoare
IHS Towers (Buy, TP: $7.7, +41%) – Q1 25: Strong start to the year; Rw...
IHS Towers has reported a strong set of result. Revenue and EBITDA came in above consensus by quite some margin and Q1 numbers trended above the FY25 guide across the board. The company has also announced the sale of its Operations in Rwanda.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR190, +60%) MTN Rwanda – Q1 25: Still mixed but MT gu...
MTN Rwanda has reported a somewhat mixed set of Q1 numbers. On the one hand, service revenue trends slowed, impacted by strong competition. On the other hand, EBITDA growth is back into positive territory and low capex spend this quarter translated into solid OpFCF
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
IHS (Buy, TP: US$7.7, +80%) - Investor Call Feedback - 31st March 2025
We had a bullish call last week with IHS CFO, Steve Howden, and Head of IR Robert Berg. Despite tariff-related chaos the stock has performed well recently (+50% ytd) reflecting the better environment in Nigeria as well as action the company itself has taken to improve value, but we still think it looks undervalued and retain our Buy recommendation and US$7.7 price target.
- Chris Hoare
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