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Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Nigerian Telcos Nigerian Telcos – Price increase is finally coming, i...

A price increase is coming soon according to the Nigerian press. The magnitude is not yet known but this is positive news (potentially very positive) for the Nigerian Telcos, Airtel Africa and MTN.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

IHS Towers (Buy, TP: $6, +86%) IHS (Buy) – Sale of its 70% stake in I...

IHS has announced that it has signed a definitive agreement to sell its 70% stake in IHS Kuwait. Proceeds will be mainly used to reduce debt.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +57%) Q3 24: Solid, SR growth back on track wit...

MTN has reported a solid set of Q3 results with service revenue and EBITDA trends accelerating and service revenue trending back in line with the MT guidance.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

IHS Towers (Buy, TP: $6, +140%) Q3 24: Solid quarter, lower capex guid...

IHS Towers has reported a solid quarter. Both group revenue and EBITDA came in above consensus expectations (and our expectations) and the company posted strong margins this quarter.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +52%) MTN Rwanda – Q3 24 Quick take: Mixed quar...

MTN Rwanda has reported a mixed set of Q3 numbers. Service revenue trends inflected and are back into positive territory while EBITDA trends eased but remained under pressure.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN Uganda (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +47%) – Q3 24 Quick Take: Slower but soli...

MTN Uganda has reported a slower but solid set of Q3 numbers and has upgraded medium-term guidance for service revenue growth.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +50%) MTN Ghana – Q3 24 Quick Take: Faster quart...

MTN Ghana has reported a good set of Q3 results with both service revenue and EBITDA trends accelerating and solid data subscriber net additions.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +48%) MTN Nigeria Q3 24 Quick Take: A much bette...

MTN Nigeria has reported a much better set of results. Top line growth accelerated again, and EBITDA growth is back into positive territory, helped by the tower lease renegotiations.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

EM Towers Q2 CY24 review: Improving trends in China and Africa, Indon...

Revenue and EBITDA trends improved again for China Tower, which alongside stable depreciation supported bottom-line momentum. In Indonesia, MTEL and TOWR continued to perform where the latter benefited from faster growth in its Fibre business thus should act as a buffer should the XL and Smartfren deal were to proceed.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

EMEA & African Telcos & Towers - High Yield Review – Initiate Coverage...

Following similar efforts in Europe and LatAm we are launching coverage on the HY Telcos & Towers in EMEA & Africa. New names under coverage include Helios (also initiated on equity, pt GBp140), Axian Telecom and Liquid Intelligent. We also address IHS Towers (pt cut to US$ 6), VEON and Helios’ bonds.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

IHS Towers (Buy, TP: $8, +170%) Investor call feedback

We had an encouraging call last week with IHS CFO, Steve Howden. Credit investors have started to recognise the positive steps taken by the company in recent months, although the equity continues to lag.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

African Telcos - Catch Back: Headwinds easing, many markets to 2 playe...

We see signs that the macro pressure of the last 2 years is leading to easing competition, as has happened in the past.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

South African Telcos - Upgrade as the long cycle turns. Vodacom to Buy...

As the long cycle of competition turns, we upgrade price targets for both MTN and Vodacom.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +47%) Q2 24: Better topline trends including im...

Service revenue trends were faster off better Uganda, Nigeria and South Africa as network availability improved. While underlying service revenue improved from Q1, it was still below the mid-teen medium term guidance. However, the Group maintained its guidance, with full year’s capex (Rs28-33bn) expected to be down around 30% from last year off lower spend in Nigeria. HoldCo leverage had also improved to 1.6x this quarter with better upstreaming.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +54%) MTN Rwanda – Q2 24 Quick take: Tough quar...

MTN Rwanda has reported a disappointing set of Q2 numbers. Service revenue and EBITDA trends continued to deteriorate as they continue to be impacted by the MTR cut and higher competition on price. Additionally, EBITDA continued to be impacted by the One Network Area initiative, handset subsidy and the local currency depreciating vs. the USD. As a result, management has cut FY24 guidance.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

IHS Towers (Buy, TP: $8, +158%) Q2 24: Solid quarter and encouraging ...

IHS Towers has reported a solid set of Q2 results. Organic top line growth has seen a strong acceleration, driven by Nigeria, while margins improved nicely too. There was no new news regarding the strategic review. However, the company made a key announcement last week about the contract renewals with MTN Nigeria (HERE).

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +73%) IHS Towers (Buy, TP: $8, +167%) MTN and I...

Both MTN Nigeria and IHS Nigeria have announced the renewal and extension of all their MLAs in Nigeria, including new financial terms. This development is materially positive for both companies in our view. This means all MLAs in Africa between MTN and IHS have now been renewed and extended. Separately, MTN has also announced the exit from Guinea-Bissau.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +75%) MTN Uganda – Q2 24 Quick Take: Strong qua...

MTN Uganda has reported a strong set of Q2 numbers with both service revenue and EBITDA trends accelerating again.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR130, +65%) MTN Ghana – Q2 24 Quick Take: Another sol...

MTN Ghana has reported a solid set of Q2 results. Both service revenue and EBITDA trends came in above our expectations this quarter. We think this performance remains a good support for the group.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Solid top line, decent overall performan...

Q1 was a solid quarter for the Sub-Saharan African operators, especially from a top line perspective. Airtel Africa continued to outperform peers overall. We continue to think that fundamentals for AAF and MTN are strong and deserve more attention. Valuations are compelling too.

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