Sinch (Buy, TP: SEK31.00) - FX affecting estimates

We forecast muted growth in Q1, similar to what we saw in Q4. There is no updated consensus, but we are 1% below post-Q4 consensus on gross profit and 4% above on EBITDA. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK31 (33).

Low valuation on low expectations - BUY

Sinch (Buy, TP: SEK33.00) - Another solid cash-flow quarter

Sinch beat consensus on Q4 EBITDA and cash flow. As the deviation to our forecasts was lower, we have made limited estimate revisions. We have also included a cash payment of the SEK700m tax provision, resulting in lower cash flow in 2025–2026e. We reiterate our BUY and SEK33 target price.

Small improvements enough at current value

Better-than-expected Q4

Where did that come from?

Sinch (Buy, TP: SEK33.00) - Exiting a year without growth

2024 was a year of transformation to a new organisational structure. Sinch saw muted growth, and we expect similar in the Q4 report. With consensus cautious and share buy-backs potentially announced, we still see a positive risk/reward. We reiterate our BUY and SEK33 target price.

Lowering growth expectations to new targets

Disappointing growth communication leaves few alternatives left

New targets hint potential share buybacks

Ahead of CMD on 20 Nov

Sinch (Buy, TP: SEK33.00) - Remains a BUY on valuation

Adjusted for a one-off, organic gross profit growth disappointed and the outlook for Q4 and the start of 2025 remains weak. We still see a strong underlying market and reiterate our BUY due to an attractive valuation. We have lowered our target price to SEK33 (37).

Surprisingly weak outlook in focus

Stock down on weak outlook

Twilio Q3 better-than-expected and raised guidance

Goodwill write-down and prel. Q3 figures

Lingering between tough macro and a recovery

CFO departure at an unfortunate timing

Sinch (Buy, TP: SEK37.00) - Another soft quarter expected

We forecast another quarter with low-single-digit organic gross profit growth, as guided for in Q2. We also see a risk that the cash flow from early payments by customers in Q2 reverses in Q3, although this should be known by the market, in our opinion. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK37 (40).

Bond refinancing could drive EPS upgrades