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ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
Stefan Gauffin
  • Stefan Gauffin

Sinch (Buy, TP: SEK33.00) - Remains a BUY on valuation

Adjusted for a one-off, organic gross profit growth disappointed and the outlook for Q4 and the start of 2025 remains weak. We still see a strong underlying market and reiterate our BUY due to an attractive valuation. We have lowered our target price to SEK33 (37).

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
Stefan Gauffin
  • Stefan Gauffin

Sinch (Buy, TP: SEK37.00) - Another soft quarter expected

We forecast another quarter with low-single-digit organic gross profit growth, as guided for in Q2. We also see a risk that the cash flow from early payments by customers in Q2 reverses in Q3, although this should be known by the market, in our opinion. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK37 (40).

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
Stefan Gauffin
  • Stefan Gauffin

Sinch (Buy, TP: SEK40.00) - Follow the money

Growth remains weak and Sinch is working to protect profitability and invest to drive growth. These efforts will be in focus at the November CMD. Meanwhile, it is generating strong cash flow and trading at a 9% FCF yield. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK40 (45).

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Strong cash flow trumps lower growth

Growth likely muted near-term, but costs under impressive control. CMD on 20 November should address growth concerns. Adj. EBITDA -1-3% '24-'26e, stick to BUY at 8.7x EV/adj. EBITA '24e.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

We expect flat adj. EBITDA y-o-y in Q2e

RCS to iPhone will be important, but beyond Q2e. No underlying estimate changes, growth to recover late 2024 or 2025. We expect 3% org. GP growth and few surprises in Q2e, stick to BUY.

Stefan Gauffin
  • Stefan Gauffin

Sinch (Buy, TP: SEK45.00) - Looking for stability

We expect Q2 results (due at 07:30 CET on 19 July) to be similar to Q1’s, and forecast 4% organic gross profit growth (3% in Q1). We are largely in line with consensus on sales, gross profit and EBITDA, and estimate stable cash-flow generation of SEK400m. We reiterate our BUY and SEK45 target price.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath
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