Adjusted for a one-off, organic gross profit growth disappointed and the outlook for Q4 and the start of 2025 remains weak. We still see a strong underlying market and reiterate our BUY due to an attractive valuation. We have lowered our target price to SEK33 (37).
We forecast another quarter with low-single-digit organic gross profit growth, as guided for in Q2. We also see a risk that the cash flow from early payments by customers in Q2 reverses in Q3, although this should be known by the market, in our opinion. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK37 (40).
Growth remains weak and Sinch is working to protect profitability and invest to drive growth. These efforts will be in focus at the November CMD. Meanwhile, it is generating strong cash flow and trading at a 9% FCF yield. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK40 (45).
We expect Q2 results (due at 07:30 CET on 19 July) to be similar to Q1’s, and forecast 4% organic gross profit growth (3% in Q1). We are largely in line with consensus on sales, gross profit and EBITDA, and estimate stable cash-flow generation of SEK400m. We reiterate our BUY and SEK45 target price.
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