reports
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
WISE (BUY, TP: £9.00, +30%) WISE H1 25 - Upgrade to BUY: Good entry p...
WISE’s trading statement this morning reflected the second of two sizeable price cuts this year (late-August). These reflect structural revisions down in the cost base; we appear done now on pricing for the foreseeable future. Gross profit margin is also trending ahead on structural efficiencies (with more to come from syncing into PIX in Brazil).
- Soomit Datta
WISE (Neutral, TP: £8.00, +5%) WISE Q1 25 trading statement: Nice bea...
This morning’s Q1 25 Trading statement showed better volumes (a 3% beat), revenue (2%) and underlying income (1%) than expected (NSR and consensus); there is no profitability reported. Of particular significance was the volume improvement, with momentum here having been weak of late as WISE gravitates to more “card usage” from core transfer customers. The fall in the cross-border take-rate, meanwhile, had been well flagged following April price cuts.
- Soomit Datta
WISE (Neutral, TP: £8.00 (from £8.30) , +10%) WISE - FY model update:...
We spoke to WISE after close on Friday and after the sharp moves down in the stock following FYs. The company is in offense mode having dropped price in April - with more reductions to come we think - which should ultimately support volumes (momentum here being a concern for us for some time) as well as further debit card adoption
- Soomit Datta
WISE (Neutral, TP: £8.30, +10%) WISE FY 24 - Weak guide on Volume, Pr...
Having pre-reported volumes and revenue, WISE reported full 2024 numbers this morning. Profitability was robust, well ahead for H2. Mid-term guidance, however, has significantly disappointed. It’s framed in terms of recently restated underlying income/revenue and underlying PBT (which both remove interest rate volatility from the mix). At the top line, income guide range of 15-20% is slightly below where consensus sits for the next 2 years, whilst the disparity at underlying PBT margin is much g...
- Soomit Datta
WISE (Neutral, TP: £8.30, +0%) WISE FY 24 update: Where did the Cross...
Following this week’s FY 24 trading statement we have updated estimates. We see ongoing weaker than expected core cross-borer transfer volumes, driven by dilutive volume/new add, offset by debit card use (interchange) and stronger NII (higher for longer rates). In addition lower FX volatility is also supporting gross margins for the time being. It’s an interesting time to review historic cross-border volume expectations, relative to TAM, with downward revisions for consensus volumes expectations...
- Soomit Datta
WISE (Neutral, TP: £9.00, +6%) WISE - Q4 24: Volumes and revenue miss...
WISE reported its FY 24 trading statement this morning (to Mar-24). The core business missed Q4 revenue and volumes by 3%, coming from a combination of Business (lower onboarding in part) as well as Personal (macro perhaps). Sequential volumes are flat in Q4, y/y growth is only 15% which benchmarks against mid-term expectations for total income growth (which includes NII) of 20% (whilst rates will fall/deposit remuneration should rise at some stage). The steer into H2 is for slightly higher gros...
- Soomit Datta
WISE (Neutral, TP: £7.25, +5%) WISE - Q2 and Deja Vu: Target up to £7...
Looking ahead to the Q2 24 Trading Statement on 12 October consensus expectations continue to lag - as we saw into the FYs in June and when the stock subsequently rallied hard. This is likely to support the stock into numbers and comes partly from NII (which will though be discounted by the market) but supported also by a solid core business.
- Soomit Datta
WISE (Neutral, TP: £6.85, +1%) WISE - Q1 trading update: No big surpr...
WISE’s Q1 trading update (revenue only, no profitability) had been pretty well flagged at the recent FYs (only three weeks ago) so there were no material surprises. With that said, net adds came in ahead on Personal (500k for the quarter is the strongest level for some time) whilst NII also beat expectations (by £10m), which will be supportive for near-term EBITDA.
- Soomit Datta
- James Allen
- Nick Anderson
LIBERUM: Fintech - High growth, high returns
Fintech is a huge opportunity, happening now. Beyond the boom and bust of funding cycles, fintech is disrupting increasing swathes of financial services. Using technology to deliver superior user experiences (UX) and lower costs, fintech is solving for B2C and increasingly B2B/SME customer pain points, resulting in high growth and high returns. We have a relative preference for the payments and infrastructure (picks and shovels) sub-sectors over neo banks and innovative credit providers.
- Liberum Research Team
SRP SERCO GROUP PLC
HAS HAYS PLC
MGNS MORGAN SINDALL GROUP
GNS GENUS PLC
HWDN HOWDEN JOINERY GROUP PLC
TRCS TRACSIS
SRC SIGMAROC
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN
A2DVHX SUPERMARKET INCOME REIT PLC
HONY HONEYCOMB INVESTMENT TRUST
TRR TRIDENT ROYALTIES
HE1 HELIUM ONE GLOBAL
WISE WISE PLC
BYIT BYTES TECHNOLOGY GROUP PLC
AA4 AMEDEO AIR FOUR PLUS LTD
- Liberum Research Team
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