Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Another round of Aramco suspensions expected

Market sources suggest Saudi Aramco will further reduce its rig count in the coming months through early contract terminations and potentially more suspensions, which would mark the ‘fourth round’ of rig reductions. This follows last month’s request for dayrate discussions (historically, such requests have preceded it suspending rigs). We believe this round could be extensive, affecting c10 jackups out of its current rig count of c57 rigs. At the peak, Aramco had 92 jackups (22% of global demand...

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Camurus: Oczyesa (CAM2029) in acromegaly received positive CHMP opinio...

Camurus announced on Friday that the EMA's CHMP adopted a positive opinion for the approval of Oczyesa (CAM2029) for the maintenance treatment in adult patients with acromegaly who have responded to and tolerated treatment with somatostatin analogues (SSAs). As a reminder, SSAs are considered as th

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Muted 2025 growth expectations

Following Q1 earnings calls by some of the oil service companies, 2025 outlooks appear more challenging than previously. Baker Hughes expects international upstream spending to decline by mid- to high-single digits, while Halliburton sees its international revenues flat to slightly down. Furthermore, Weatherford expects 2025 international revenue to decline by low double- to mid-double digits. Precision Drilling flagged additional rig suspensions by Saudi Aramco, and SLB highlighted a slow start...

ENI capex cut but maintains shareholder returns

Driven by macro headwinds and uncertainty around trade tariffs, ENI was the first large oil company to introduce capex cuts for 2025, contributing to a more challenging business environment for oil services. Over the past five years, we estimate ENI to have been the oil major with strongest offshore spending growth, and it has been considered active and opportunistic while others have been more conservative. Hence, we see its reduction as a soft datapoint for oil services. ENI has optimised its ...

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Time to revisit

The unfolding trade war has led us to cut our global 2025–2027e demand and trim our spot price estimates. The negative price effect is partly countered by reduced mortality boosting volumes and lowering costs, leading to net EPS cuts of 11–2%. Given the sector’s solid track record in adapting to past crises and recent share-price declines, we see a significantly improved risk/reward and have a positive stance on the sector. We have upgraded Mowi, Bakkafrost, and Grieg Seafood to BUY (HOLD).

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

Welcomed tender from Petrobras

Updates suggest Petrobras yesterday launched a new tender for “one or more” deepwater rigs for the Buzios field starting late-2026/early-2027. As it has been a while since the last Petrobras tender, and there has been uncertainty related to the timing of upcoming tenders, we believe a new Petrobras tender would offer relief for investors. As we count nine rigs already contracted with Petrobras to match the start-up window, we expect the requirement would be filled by rigs already in the country,...

Looking at required day-rates

Although there are several ongoing deepwater tenders, the lack of recent deepwater fixtures has created uncertainty among investors related to day-rates. Consequently, we have analysed the required day-rates to support current share prices and valuations. Given the high operating leverage and multiple variables involved (utilisation, lifetime and cost of capital), we estimate the sector requires 7G drillship day-rates from the mid-USD300k and above to support the current share prices.

ABGSC Shipping Daily 11 April

Norway: Government suggests substantial changes to farming regulations

ABGSC Shipping Daily 10 April

ABGSC Shipping Daily 9 April

ABGSC Shipping Daily 8 April

Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK725.00) - In line with consensus Q1 sales

Our Q1 and 2025 estimates are broadly in line with consensus. We expect continued growth for Buvidal and the Brixadi royalties, and more clarity on the Oclaiz approval for the US market (to settle manufacturing observations, which resulted in the CRL in October 2024). We reiterate our BUY and SEK725 target price.

Q1 trading update: Soft Q1, and slightly weaker FY guiding

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly