Måsøval (Buy, TP: NOK39.00) - Soldiered through a tough quarter

Q3 operating EBIT of NOK-61m was in line with the pre-announced profit warning and reflected biological challenges for Farming Mid (sea lice and ISA) as well as one-off start-up costs for the new harvesting plant in Sales & Processing. Farming West reported solid operational progress and an encouraging outlook. The 2025 volume guidance of 29–31kt was below our 32.6kt estimate, but the 34kt medium-term harvest target was maintained. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK39 (41...

Norva24 (Buy, TP: SEK37.00) - German project headache

The Q3 results were mixed, with German governance issues clouding an otherwise solid performance. Now excluding the prohibited Norwegian Vitec acquisition combined with the German project business challenges, we have cut our 2024–2026e EPS by 3–10% and our target price to SEK37 (39). We reiterate our BUY, still seeing solid potential for a ‘buy-and-build’ sector roll-up case in the fragmented European UIM service market.

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Salmon Evolution (Buy, TP: NOK9.90) - Strong KPIs for land-based

Q3 Farming EBITDA was positive on another quarter with strong realised prices and a high superior share. Despite lower than expected 2025e volumes, strong biological KPIs and healthy biomass growth showcased stable operations, leaving us confident in the company’s long-term outlook. With small revisions to our phase-2 capex and volume estimates, we reiterate our BUY and NOK9.9 target price.

Nothing has changed (long-term)

Camurus (Buy, TP: SEK725.00) - Strong earnings, raised guidance

While Q3 sales were a little light, earnings were well above our estimate and consensus. Following the results, Camurus raised its 2024 sales and PTP guidance. We believe the complete response letter (CRL) for Oclaiz™ in the US could be resolved by Q1 and the product launched in the US in Q2. A European approval for Oclaiz™ could come around mid-2025, we believe. Data read-out from the SORENTO trial (being an event-driven trial) is now expected late-2025/early-2026 (Q2 2025 originally). We reite...

Borr Drilling (Buy, TP: NOK65.00) - Volatile times set to remain

Uncertainty in the jackup market has intensified, resulting in greater volatility and more idle time for jackups. While benefiting from good contract coverage, exposure to remote regions, and commercial discipline, it is set to eventually be affected by the market challenges. Thus, we have cut our EBITDA estimates and are 6–12% below consensus for 2025–2026e. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to NOK65 (95).

Camurus: Q3 highlighted strong profitability

Camurus reported its Q3 2024 results which came in slightly below market expectations for revenues, as i) total revenues came in at SEK480m (vs css SEK 499m, -3.8%), ii) Buvidal sales came in at SEK421m (vs css SEK429m, -1.9%), and iii) Brixadi royalties at SEK58m (vs css SEK66.8m, -13.2%). On a po

Q3: EBIT in line, but '25 guidance on the soft side

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

An intentionally slow quarter

Måsøval (Buy, TP: NOK41.00) - Q3 profit warning

Måsøval released a profit warning for Q3 on 28 October. It now guides for operating EBIT of NOK-62m (consensus NOK47m) and cut 2024e harvest volumes by 1.8kt to 24.7–25.7kt. The main deviation versus our previous report is the negative effect from substantially increased sea lice pressure. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to NOK41 (42), and expect the stock to trade down 2–4% today.

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Pemex effect looks to be limited for now

Following uncertainty yesterday related to Pemex’s 2024 budget cuts and potential reduction in rig count, we understand that the initial effect looks to be limited to a handful of rigs (potentially four) for a short period only. Affected rigs look to be locally owned units, which suggest that international contractors (Borr Drilling and Paratus Energy) are not affected. Hence, we now see a scenario with less-direct effect for international contractors than feared by the capital market yesterday....

Jackup uncertainty building

With reports of Pemex budget cuts and potential rig suspensions, additional uncertainty is added to the jackup market. The overhang from two rounds of Saudi Aramco suspensions (totalling 28 rigs, c6% of global supply) have been slow to absorb, and are likely to persist through 2025. With looming risk of even more Aramco suspensions, and rigs possibly being released in Mexico, we see a continued high competitive environment on new tenders. Dayrates for most premium jobs are cUSD120k–130k (a tad b...

Pemex saving plans add to jackup uncertainty

Several news reports suggest Pemex plans to cut USD1.4bn from its E&P budget this year. As the budget reduction is aimed at drilling, among others, we see a risk of jackup suspension. Pemex has 26 jackups chartered from contractors, with Borr Drilling and Paratus (through Fontis Energy) having most exposure with five rigs each, and such rigs representing 18% and 41% of 2025e EBITDA. The duration of suspensions appears unclear for now; while savings are limited to this year’s budget, reports sugg...

Camurus: Oclaiz receives unexpected CRL

This morning, Camurus announced that they received a CRL regarding Oclaiz (CAM2029) in Acromegaly due to facility-related deficiencies identified during a cGMP inspection of a third-party manufacturer. The CRL did not state any other concerns, including related to clinical efficacy or safety of CAM