The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) Investor bought shares in EQT for the first time since its 2019 IPO; 2) ahead of Kinnevik’s 12 May AGM, we highlight the return of Cristina Stenbeck as chair and the potential for share buybacks at a 40% discount to NAV; and 3) Lundbergs bought shares in its existing holdings for SEK512m.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we lowered our target price for Latour to SEK300 (340) following a Q1 report with a slight NAV decline but strong organic order intake growth; 2) Investor bought 6.3m Ericsson shares, and we highlight its successful top-ups in the name; 3) insider purchases at Investor are in our view a signal to look beyond a relatively small discount to NAV; and 4) Flat Capital reported Q1 NAV down 1% QOQ.

Vimian (Buy, TP: SEK55.00) - 2025 off to a good start

Q1 sales were largely in line with our forecast and consensus, while adj. EBITA beat by c8% and c6%, respectively. Margin gains were reported across business lines, also outperforming expectations. However, demand for expensive elective orthopaedic procedures remained muted in the US, although we expect it to come back from H2. We reiterate our BUY and SEK55 target price.

Sales growth set to accelerate

Solid Q1 should trigger positive reaction

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we lowered our target price in Investor to SEK320 following a 9% write-down of Patricia Industries in its Q1 report; 2) we reduced our target price in Kinnevik to SEK100 to reflect macroeconomic headwinds, but remain positive ahead of Cristina Stenbeck’s return as chair; 3) we cut our VEF target price to SEK2.5 on FX movements and see re-rating potential from e.g. ongoing buybacks; and 4) we lowered our target price in Flerie to SEK57 given worsening funding ...

US medtech holding back growth in Q1

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we are encouraged by the return of Cristina Stenbeck as chair of Kinnevik, and believe it could result in a lower discount to NAV; 2) VEF completed a milestone partial exit of Juspay at a 37% IRR, putting it on track to pay down debt and repurchase shares at a 50% discount to NAV in the near term; and 3) for Industrivärden, we recently reiterated our HOLD and lowered our target price to SEK345 (400), as we see risk to the earnings outlook of its portfolio com...

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we expect FX and multiples headwinds to weigh heavily on Kinnevik’s Q1 report; 2) VEF’s NAV looks set to grow by low single digits QOQ in USD terms; and 3) Industrivärden is due to report Q1 results next week, ahead of which we highlight a more attractive near-term investment story in its main owner Lundbergs.

Vimian (Buy, TP: SEK55.00) - Last year with AOP

We believe focus will be on growth and cash flow for Q1. However, we highlight that Vimian is shrinking its annual ordering programme (AOP) for the medical technology division this year, affecting YOY sales and margin comparisons. We reiterate our BUY and SEK55 target price.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) with Q1 coming to a close, we highlight valuation trends YTD for Investor, Kinnevik and Latour; 2) Klarna’s prospective IPO would have both direct and indirect effects on Swedish investment companies; and 3) Flerie is set to take Toleranzia private in an all-shares deal.

Terminating coverage

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) Investor-owned Advanced Instruments agreed to acquire Nova Biomedical for USD2.2bn, creating Investor’s second-largest unlisted holding; 2) Svolder reported Q2 2024/25 NAV up 10% QOQ, outperforming the CSRX at 5%; 3) we see 24% NTM NAV growth potential in Bure’s portfolio; and 4) VNV further postponed its proposed USD83m sale of Gett.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) the Wallenberg sphere announced new roles for members of the sixth generation, including on the board of Investor; 2) following serial acquirer Röko’s IPO this week, we highlight the attractive valuation of Latour’s unlisted assets; and 3) as the dividend season approaches, we note the seasonal contraction of NAV discounts.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we met with Investor, and note its rising SAAB exposure in light of increasing European defence spending; 2) Tiger Global led a USD75m funding round in Kinnevik-owned Mews at an undisclosed valuation; 3) VEF’s largest asset, Creditas, reported a solid Q4; and 4) Creades and Flat Capital made new investments.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we see Q1 tailwinds for VEF after the sharp decline in its NAV in Q4; 2) Kinnevik peer multiples have seen healthy progress YTD, we believe setting the stage for further NAV growth in 2025; 3) Byggmästaren reported its Q4 NAV; and 4) following the Q4 reporting season, we note Svolder’s sector-leading 10-year DPS CAGR of ~20%, underpinned by a 10-year NAV CAGR of 18%.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) Investor held a sell-side meeting with its new CFO Jenny Ashman Haquinius; 2) Latour made an acquisition and expanded its loan framework; 3) we reiterated our HOLD on Lundbergs following its Q4 report; 4) Bure reported Q4 NAV down 5% QOQ; and 5) Flat Capital reported Q4 NAV and sold its stake in Truecaller at an IRR of 47%.

Lundbergs (Hold, TP: SEK555.00) - Flat NAV YOY expected in 2025

Q4 saw Lundbergs’ NAV growth slightly underperform the SIXRX as the Lundberg sphere continued to build its position in Industrivärden. While we like its defensive characteristics and long-term investment horizon, we believe near-term NAV and TSR upside potential is limited at these levels. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK555 (540), reflecting a balanced portfolio view (including key assets Industrivärden, Indutrade and Holmen, and our neutral real estate sector stan...

Vimian (Buy, TP: SEK55.00) - Strong organic growth in Q4

Vimian reported higher-than-expected Q4 earnings, with strong organic growth of c15% YOY, a clear step-up from recent quarters. Cash flow was also stronger than we expected and the company is clearly continuing its focus on cash generation. In addition, the recently acquired iM3 operation was consolidated. We reiterate our BUY and SEK55 target price.

All segments now delivering organic growth