Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK17.00) - April traffic statistics p...

April’s traffic statistics are due at 08:00 CET on 7 May. We are positive ahead of the report, expecting a strong yield recovery supported by Easter timing effects and easing capacity growth. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK17 (15) on positive estimate changes on our revised fuel and USDNOK assumptions.

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Seafood - Chilean biomass update

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Betting on the Horse

Vitrolife (Buy, TP: SEK230.00) - Disappointing start to 2025

Q1 sales undershot consensus by c3% and EBITDA by c11%, with earnings missing across the board. Organic sales growth was c3% (excluding discontinued operations equating to close to 3% of total sales). Divisionally, Technologies saw the largest deviations versus consensus (although it can be volatile quarter to quarter). On the positive side, the lawsuit in the US related to PGT-A has not had any negative impact on those sales. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK230 (255).

Solid execution on margin improvement

Bufab (Hold, TP: SEK420.00) - Time to bolt in

Q1 sales rose by 2% YOY (Bloomberg consensus +1%), with flat organic growth, EBIT 7% above consensus and EPS 13% above, partly due to strength in Asia-Pacific and stability in Americas. The group EBITA margin was 13.1% (Q4 2024 12.1%) and the adj. EBITA margin 12.7% (12.1%). We have raised our 2025e EBITA by 4% on better-than-expected results in China and North & East, and made minor adjustments to our 2026e. We reiterate our HOLD but have lowered our target price to SEK420 (430) on continued ge...

Soft Q1 driven by weak APAC sales

Slight beat vs. cons. driven by gross margin

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Seafood - Norwegian biomass update

Time to revisit

The unfolding trade war has led us to cut our global 2025–2027e demand and trim our spot price estimates. The negative price effect is partly countered by reduced mortality boosting volumes and lowering costs, leading to net EPS cuts of 11–2%. Given the sector’s solid track record in adapting to past crises and recent share-price declines, we see a significantly improved risk/reward and have a positive stance on the sector. We have upgraded Mowi, Bakkafrost, and Grieg Seafood to BUY (HOLD).

Heads-up for report 24 April

Sinch (Buy, TP: SEK31.00) - FX affecting estimates

We forecast muted growth in Q1, similar to what we saw in Q4. There is no updated consensus, but we are 1% below post-Q4 consensus on gross profit and 4% above on EBITDA. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK31 (33).

Low valuation on low expectations - BUY

Norway: Government suggests substantial changes to farming regulations

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK15.00) - March traffic statistics

We consider this a slightly soft report for Norwegian Air Shuttle, with a slightly weaker load and yield for Norwegian Air only partly offset by strong performance from Widerøe. We expect consensus 2025e adj. EBITDA to come down by c1% on the back of the report and believe a neutral to slightly negative share price reaction is warranted.

Q1 trading update: Volumes 16% above consensus

March revenues 2.5% below

Group sales NOK 2.3bn, -2.5% vs us/cons on lower yield/load in NAS. Negative Easter effects, but April likely better - MTM EPS 25% above cons on lower fuel/weaker USD