The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) Kinnevik seeks a buyback mandate and proposes two new board members ahead of its EGM; 2) we met VEF’s and Creditas’ CEOs in Stockholm; and 3) Flerie is set to present at our Healthcare Conference in Oslo next week.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) Bure reported Q3 results, outperforming the SIXRX by more than 5%-points; 2) VEF’s largest holding, Creditas, reported Q3 numbers, with origination improving 17% QOQ ahead of a profitable growth reacceleration and potential listing; 3) Apotea (10% of Creades’ unlisted assets) announced its intention to go public before year-end; and 4) Kinnevik’s chair is set to step down in 2025.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) Latour reported c9% NAV growth QOQ in Q3, outperforming the SIXRX, while the premium to our NAV is now only 2%; 2) Aker raised its dividend payout policy to 4–6% of NAV, giving it the sector’s highest dividend yield; and 3) Bure is due to report its Q3 results tomorrow, 8 November.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) VNV Global wrote down its unlisted portfolio by 3% QOQ in its Q3 report, as its Gett sale remains under regulatory review; 2) starting in this issue, we include Spiltan Invest in our sector overview (SEK9.2bn NAV with the key asset being Paradox Interactive); and 3) Latour is set to report Q3 results next week.

CMD: NAV should rise from here

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) our deep dive into Kinnevik’s ‘core growth companies’; 2) our lowered target price of SEK105 for Kinnevik, following the Q3 results; 3) our raised target price of SEK330 for Investor; 4) our lowered target price of SEK375 for Industrivärden; and 5) our reduced target price of SEK68 for Flerie.

Kinnevik (Buy, TP: SEK105.00) - Needs to reverse NAV decline

Kinnevik’s Q3 was yet another disappointment, mainly due to the write-down of its entire SEK1.1bn stake in VillageMD. Negative sentiment towards the stock is unlikely to change near-term in our view in the absence of NAV growth or potential share buybacks, and we note low market expectations ahead of the CMD, scheduled for 23 October. We have cut our target price to SEK105 (110), reflecting our new NAV estimate, but reiterate our BUY as we view the ‘core growth companies’ as attractively valued ...

Opportunity for the bold

Q3: weaker than feared

Kinnevik (Buy, TP: SEK110.00) - What’s in the box?

Owing to recent negative news flow and the opacity of Kinnevik’s unlisted portfolio, we believe the market is missing the potential of its five ‘core growth companies’. Our analysis suggests this group is set for a 2024–2026e gross profit CAGR of 41% and 2026e EBITDA of USD224m. At the current 42% discount to NAV, we calculate a 2026e EV/sales of 1.0x and EV/EBITDA of 18x. We see ample re-rating potential as the operational progress becomes increasingly clear to the market, and like the increasi...

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) VEF’s portfolio looks to be in a good place ahead of its Q3 report (due at 08:00 CET on 23 October), but is still trading at a 43% discount to NAV; 2) starting in this issue, we include Byggmästaren in our sector overview; and 3) Kinnevik, Investor, Industrivärden and Flerie are set to report Q3 results next week.

Headwinds in Q3

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we expect low-single digit NAV growth QOQ in Kinnevik’s Q3 report; 2) we hosted an investor lunch with Flerie, where we see upside potential from NAV growth and a discount contraction; and 3) we published a sector update, highlighting our impressions from meeting with 13 investment company CEOs over the past few weeks.

Pick your contender

Following our ‘investment company weeks’ at DNB Markets in Stockholm, we give a brief update on our view of the sector and summarise our impressions from lunch presentations with 13 investment company CEOs. From a broader perspective, we note the increased investor interest in the sector, as well as the structurally lower discounts to NAV, albeit not in the VC-oriented companies. We continue to have Investor as our sector top pick, with additional BUYs on Latour, Kinnevik, VEF and Flerie.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we hosted investor lunches with the CEOs of Svolder and Byggmästaren at our Stockholm office; 2) we met with Investor, which is continuing to execute on its M&A agenda; 3) we met with VEF, which is seeing positive momentum for fintech VCs in its core markets of Brazil and India.

The weekly navigator

This week, we hosted investor lunches with the CEOs of VNV Global, Latour, Flat Capital, Linc and Aeternum Capital at our Stockholm office.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight our investor lunches with the CEOs of Spiltan, Industrivärden, Creades, Bure and Öresund at our Stockholm offices.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we upgraded Latour to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to SEK332 (285), as we see enough positives to look beyond the steep premium to NAV; 2) we upgraded Lundbergs to HOLD (SELL) and raised our target price to SEK555 (510), as we believe the negative triggers have long since played out and have a more positive view on its real estate exposure; and 3) Investor announced a new CFO. Also, tomorrow marks the start of our ‘investment company weeks’ at DNB M...

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we initiated coverage of Flerie, a life science investment company that offers investors access to a rare part of the Nordic healthcare ecosystem, with a BUY and SEK70 target price; 2) Latour’s newly created business area Innovalift made a significant acquisition; and 3) we will host a series of lunches with Nordic investment companies’ CEOs at our Stockholm office in September. The Weekly Navigator will now take a summer break until late August.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we raised our target price to SEK325 and reiterated our BUY in Investor, as we believe the shrinking discount to NAV is warranted; 2) we reiterated our BUY and SEK3.5 target price in VEF, and like the profitable growth story in its largest holding, Creditas; and 3) Creades reported Q2 NAV up 8% QOQ, and we note the 20% raised valuation of Klarna.