>2024 guidance confirmed but adjustment for 2025 - Montana posted solid Q3 2024 results with adjusted EBITDA of € 38.7m vs € 32m for the Visible Alpha consensus (i.e. a margin of 10.6% in Q3 vs 8.5% last year but a sequential decline of 90bp) and confirmed its 2024 guidance (revenues above € 1.5bn excluding the consideration for the E-mobility division, adjusted EBITDA of € 165m and positive FCF) thanks to market share gains and a more favourable client mix with an ac...
>Une guidance 2024 confirmée mais ajustement sur 2025 - Montana a publié des résultats solides au T3 2024 avec un EBITDA ajusté à 38.7 M€ vs 32 M€ pour le consensus Visible Alpha (soit une marge de 10.6% au T3 contre 8.5% l’année dernière mais en recul séquentiel de 90 bp) et a confirmé ses objectifs 2024 (CA au-dessus de 1.5 Md€ hors considération de la division E-mobility, EBITDA ajusté à 165 M€ et FCF positif) grâce notamment aux gains de part de marché et un mix-c...
‘Soft landing’... the term is in vogue and we think it aptly describes the current situation in the energy market. After a period of “excess profits”, the fundamentals are back in favour and prompt us to revise down our estimates for energy prices. - Alongside renewable energies, pockets of sustainable value creation are emerging for players capable of capitalising on the structural growth in volatility on the electricity markets but which are nonetheless trading at a discount In the U...
tonies is a pioneer in the children’s audio entertainment and educational industry, offering a screen-free and interactive listening experience (stories and music) through its Toniebox and Tonies figurines. With a proven track record of rapid international growth, portfolio expansion and strong brand recognition mainly in the DACH region (Germany, Austria and Switzerland) and North America, we see in the coming years: 1/ further strong revenue increases (CAGR 2024-2026e of 25%) with a...
“Soft landing”… le terme est à la mode et nous pensons qu’il caractérise bien la situation du marché de l’énergie aujourd’hui. Après une parenthèse de « surprofits », les fondamentaux reprennent leur droit et nous conduisent à réviser en baisse nos hypothèses de prix de l’énergie. A côté du renouvelable, des poches pérennes de création de valeur apparaissent pour les acteurs capables de profiter de la croissance structurelle de la volatilité des marchés électriques et qui souffrent ma...
tonies is a pioneer in the children’s audio entertainment and educational industry, offering a screen-free and interactive listening experience (stories and music) through its Toniebox and Tonies figurines. With a proven track record of rapid international growth, portfolio expansion and strong brand recognition mainly in the DACH region (Germany, Austria and Switzerland) and North America, we see in the coming years: 1/ further strong revenue increases (CAGR 2024-2026e of 25%) with a...
>Au 14ème jour de grève - Les 30 000 employés du syndicat International Association of Machinists (IAM 751) entrent dans leur 14ème jour de grève (votée à 96%) après avoir notamment demandé une hausse de salaires de 40% étalée sur 4 années et l’engagement d’une production du prochain avion de Boeing à Seattle. L’acceptation de ces demandes se matérialiserait par une progression de la base de coûts d’environ 1.4 Md$e. De son côté, Boeing avait proposé une hausse de sal...
>On the 14th day of the strike - The c30,000 employees belonging to the International Association of Machinists (IAM 751) are entering their 14th day of the strike (96% of votes in favour) after demanding a wage increase of 40% spread over 4 years and a commitment that Boeing’s next aircraft will be produced in Seattle. Agreeing to these demands would result in an estimated increase in the cost base of around $ 1.4bn. For its part, Boeing had offered a wage increase o...
La prochaine acquisition de Campari pourrait être en Inde et intervenir rapidement, selon nous. Rapidement d’abord pour que le groupe puisse pleinement profiter du dynamisme de ce marché. Rapidement ensuite pour se prémunir du ralentissement actuel des liqueurs et apéritifs (L&A) en Europe, segment dont il est historiquement très dépendant. Malgré l’intérêt stratégique du marché indien, une telle opération de M&A pourrait se révéler risquée en s’ajoutant aux multiples défis opérationn...
Campari’s next acquisition might be in India and could materialise quickly, in our view. Speed is of the essence: first so that the group can take full advantage of the dynamic growth of this market; and second to guard against the current slowdown in liqueurs and aperitifs (L&A) in Europe, a segment on which it has historically been very reliant. Despite the strategic value that the Indian market offers, such an M&A deal could prove risky by adding to the multiple operational challen...
>Des rumeurs de cessez-le-feu en Ukraine qui se multiplient - Un article de Bloomberg a ravivé hier les rumeurs de discussions pouvant amener à une fin négociée du conflit en Ukraine. Sans citer de sources, les journalistes rapportaient que certains alliés commençaient à discuter de la manière dont le conflit pouvait se terminer et que la période entre les élections présidentielles américaines et l’investiture (entre novembre et janvier) pourrait offrir une fenêtre d’...
>Rumours of a ceasefire in Ukraine are multiplying - An article in Bloomberg yesterday revived rumours of talks aimed at negotiating an end to the conflict in Ukraine. Without citing any sources, journalists report that certain allies were beginning to discuss the manner in which the conflict could be brought to an end and that the period between the US presidential elections and investiture (between November and January) could offer a window of opportunity. Last Sund...
The formation of alliances to Macron's left and right reduces his leeway and increases the risk of a cohabitation, a priori probably with a Prime Minister from the Rassemblement National (National Rally). Equity markets are more visibly affected by these developments. Reduce positions in French names linked to government intervention, the most heavily indebted sectors. We are adjusting our vision of sector risks flagged on Monday morning. The sectors most at risk are: banks, construct...
La constitution d’alliances à gauche et à droite de Macron réduit sa marge de manœuvre politique et augmente le risque d’une cohabitation, a priori plutôt avec un Premier Ministre issu du Rassemblement National. Les marchés actions accusent davantage le coup. Alléger ses positions sur les noms français liés à l’intervention étatique, les secteurs les plus endettés. Nous ajustons notre vision des risques sectoriels de lundi matin. Les secteurs les plus à risque sont : Banques, Construc...
>E-mobility business divested to Mengtai Group - Montana Aerospace has just announced the divestment of its e-mobility business, Alu Menziken Group (a manufacturer of lightweight components from aluminium, including solutions for e-battery systems, structural components, and crash management systems), to Mengtai Germany, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Mengtai Group (a Chinese privately-owned company with a main focus on energy generation and distribution, agriculture, a...
>E-mobility business divested to Mengtai Group - Montana Aerospace has just announced the divestment of its e-mobility business, Alu Menziken Group (a manufacturer of lightweight components from aluminium, including solutions for e-battery systems, structural components, and crash management systems), to Mengtai Germany, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Mengtai Group (a Chinese privately-owned company with a main focus on energy generation and distribution, agriculture, a...
Unifiedpost is a niche SaaS player in the e-invoicing and procurement channel space. Regulatory headwinds mean this market is ripe for growth, which should benefit Unifiedpost. Due to some unsuccessful past M&A, the company is in a challenging financial position today. However, it has recently embarked on a divestment path, aiming to streamline the business and improve its fundamentals. We like the new direction, however prefer to take a wait-and-see approach. - ...
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