Unifiedpost is a niche SaaS player in the e-invoicing and procurement channel space. Regulatory headwinds mean this market is ripe for growth, which should benefit Unifiedpost. Due to some unsuccessful past M&A, the company is in a challenging financial position today. However, it has recently embarked on a divestment path, aiming to streamline the business and improve its fundamentals. We like the new direction, however prefer to take a wait-and-see approach. - ...
Unifiedpost is a niche SaaS player in the e-invoicing and procurement channel space. Regulatory headwinds mean this market is ripe for growth, which should benefit Unifiedpost. Due to some unsuccessful past M&A, the company is in a challenging financial position today. However, it has recently embarked on a divestment path, aiming to streamline the business and improve its fundamentals. We like the new direction, however prefer to take a wait-and-see approach. - ...
>Good Q1 2024 results - Montana Aerospace has just released a good set of Q1 2024 results. Adjusted EBITDA was reported at € 38.2m on sales of € 396m leading to a margin of 9.7% (vs 6.7% the previous year). This performance was mainly driven by Aerostructures which reported an adjusted EBITDA of € 29.4m on sales of € 207.8m leading to a margin expansion to 14.1% vs 9.1% in Q1 2023 (despite supply chain issues challenges within at ASCO). However, the E-Mobility busine...
>Good Q1 2024 results - Montana Aerospace has just released a good set of Q1 2024 results. Adjusted EBITDA was reported at € 38.2m on sales of € 396m leading to a margin of 9.7% (vs 6.7% the previous year). This performance was mainly driven by Aerostructures which reported an adjusted EBITDA of € 29.4m on sales of € 207.8m leading to a margin expansion to 14.1% vs 9.1% in Q1 2023 (despite supply chain issues challenges within at ASCO). However, the E-Mobility busine...
BHP's bid for Anglo American has confirmed interest from miners in copper in the context of increasingly challenged production and difficulties in fully completing projects. Anglo’s (Neutral) prospects in copper are now better valued and this is also the case for BHP (Neutral vs Underperform) although not so for Rio Tinto (Outperform vs Neutral). Downstream, Nexans and Montana Aerospace are our Top Picks (Outperform) vs Aurubis, Rexel and Prysmian (Neutral). - >Our copper ...
L’offre de BHP sur Anglo American a confirmé l’intérêt des minières pour le cuivre dans un contexte de tensions croissantes sur la production et de difficultés à faire aboutir les projets. Les perspectives d’Anglo (Neutre) dans le cuivre sont désormais mieux valorisées, c’est aussi le cas de BHP (Neutre vs Sous-performance) mais pas encore assez, selon nous, sur Rio Tinto (Surperformance vs Neutre). En aval, Nexans et Montana Aerospace sont nos valeurs préférées (Surperformance) ...
La solidité de l’économie américaine et l’amélioration du sentiment macroéconomique en Europe nous conduisent à maintenir nos calls gagnants : long USA vs Europe et - en Europe - long Cycliques vs Défensives. Toujours en Europe, nous basculons long Value vs Growth et modifions en profondeur notre allocation sectorielle ; nous y intégrons également une analyse chartiste. Nos secteurs préférés sont : Banks, Financial Services, Insurance, Media, Energy, Industrial Goods & Services, Tra...
America’s solid economy and Europe’s improving macro sentiment have prompted us to reiterate our winning calls: long USA vs Europe and - within Europe - long Cyclicals vs Defensives. Also within Europe, we are switching to long Value vs Growth and have overhauled our sector allocation ; furthermore it nows incorporates a chart analysis. Our favourite sectors are as follows: Banks, Financial Services, Insurance, Media, Energy, Industrial Goods & Services, Travel & Leisure, Constructio...
>Strong FCF generation - Montana Aerospace has just released strong FY2023 results notably with regards to FCF generation which came in well above expectations. Adjusted EBITDA was reported at € 137.7m (Visible Alpha consensus was expecting € 141.2m) on sales of € 1.43bn leading to a margin of 9.6% (vs 9.8% for VA consensus and 10.3% in 2022). This performance was mainly driven by Aerostructures which reported an adjusted EBITDA of € 89.2m on sales of € 704.5m leadin...
>Strong FCF generation - Montana Aerospace has just released strong FY2023 results notably with regards to FCF generation which came in well above expectations. Adjusted EBITDA was reported at € 137.7m (Visible Alpha consensus was expecting € 141.2m) on sales of € 1.43bn leading to a margin of 9.6% (vs 9.8% for VA consensus and 10.3% in 2022). This performance was mainly driven by Aerostructures which reported an adjusted EBITDA of € 89.2m on sales of € 704.5m leadin...
Although Argentina was only an anecdotal factor in Puma's profit warning, it has rekindled investors' questions about the impact of the peso's (official) depreciation following the election of Javier Milei last November. Here we recap on the risks faced by the twenty or so companies and sectors with a presence in Argentina within our universe of coverage. While the potential impact is marginal in most cases, it is more significant for: Prosegur, Prosegur Cash, Tenaris, Verallia, Save...
Même si l’Argentine n’est qu’un élément accessoire du profit warning de Puma, il a ravivé les interrogations des investisseurs sur l’impact de la dépréciation du peso (officiel) à la suite de l’élection de Javier Milei en novembre dernier. Nous revenons ici sur les risques encourus par la vingtaine de sociétés et secteurs ayant une présence en Argentine au sein de notre univers de couverture. Si l’impact potentiel est le plus souvent marginal, il est plus matériel chez : Prosegur, Pro...
>Downgrade to net income and FCF guidance for 2023 … - Montana Aerospace yesterday reported its preliminary results for 2023, confirming adjusted EBITDA in the middle of the guidance range of € 130-150m although sales are short of its forecasts (at over € 1.43bn vs guidance of over € 1.5bn) and thanks to margin improvement given the operating leverage. The E-mobility division accounts for this difference on the top line with still visible pressure on sales of billets...
>Ajustement à la baisse de la guidance de résultat net et de FCF sur 2023… - Montana Aerospace a publié hier ses résultats préliminaires 2023 confirmant un EBITDA ajusté en milieu de fourchette de la guidance de 130-150 M€ même si le CA ressort en deçà de ses prévisions (à plus de 1.43 Md€ au lieu d’une guidance supérieur à 1.5 Md€) et grâce notamment à une amélioration de marge compte tenu du levier opérationnel. La division E-mobility explique ce décalage sur la to...
>A robust Q3 driven by e-mobility - Montana has just reported robust Q3 2023 earnings above forecasts. Adjusted EBITDA stood at € 34.6m vs € 31m for the Visible Alpha consensus (i.e. a margin of 10.2% in Q3, stable on a sequential basis). Aerostructures posted adjusted EBITDA of € 18.2bn with a margin showing slight sequential growth of +20bp for sales down 6% y-o-y (scope effect after the partial divestment of Alpine Metal Tech and supply chain issues still visible a...
>Un T3 solide tiré par l’E-mobility - Montana vient de publier des résultats solides au T3 2023 au-dessus des attentes. L’EBITDA ajusté ressort à 34.6 M€ vs 31 M€ pour le consensus Visible Alpha (soit une marge de 10.2% au T3, stable en séquentiel). L’Aérostructure affiche un EBITDA ajusté de 18.2 M€ avec une marge en légère progression séquentielle de 20 pb pour un CA en recul de 6% yoy (effet scope après la cession partielle de Alpine Metal Tech et problématiques su...
We are adding CaixaBank and Deutsche Börse to the ODDO BHF European Large Caps List. At the same time, we are removing Accor (market scepticism on the hotel sector, valuation drivers behind us) and Ryanair (same market scepticism on travel, very good Q3 results having already helped the stock rally). We are also downgrading the Travel & Leisure sector from Overweight to Market Weight. Since its creation, the ODDO BHF European Large Caps List has recorded a total return of +8.5% compar...
Nous faisons entrer CaixaBank et Deutsche Börse dans notre liste de Valeurs recommandées Large Caps. Inversement, nous faisons sortir Accor (scepticisme du marché sur le secteur de l’hôtellerie, catalyseurs derrière nous) et Ryanair (même scepticisme du marché sur les voyages, les très bons résultats T3 ont permis le rebond du titre). Nous dégradons également le secteur du Travel & Leisure de Surpondérer à Neutre. Depuis sa création, notre liste enregistre un total return de +8,5% vs ...
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