During the Labour Day holiday (1-5 May), Macau's visitor arrivals significantly beat the government's expectation. Retail and catering sales showed a modest improvement in terms of yoy growth compared with the Chinese New Year holiday, while home appliance sales continued to benefit from the trade-in programme, with premium products demonstrating robust growth. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the China consumer sector. Our top picks include CR Beer, Mengniu, and Moutai.
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property Market watch around May holiday: New-home sales recovery weakens in Apr 25; the trend of Hong Kong resident travelling north remains strong. Sector Consumer Strong Macau visitations and robust home appliance sales during Labour Day Holiday. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ/BUY/Rp2,540/Target:...
Jiumaojiu's 2024 results were in line with the profit warning. In 1Q25, all three of the company’s restaurant brands recorded slight improvements in average daily turnover compared with that in 4Q24. However, same-store sales still remained under pressure. There are no specific targets for new restaurant openings in 2025, and the company aims to continue closing underperforming restaurants to enhance the healthiness of its business operations. Maintain HOLD; target price unchanged at HK$3.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI Manufacturing PMI strengthened further to 50.5 (+0.3pt mom) while non-manufacturing PMI improved to 50.8 (+0.4pt mom) as construction activity improved to 53.4 (+0.7pt mom), alongside a moderate recovery in services at 50.3 (+0.3pt mom). Small-sized enterprises saw a notable improvement to 49.6 (+3.3pt mom) despite being in the contractionary zone, pointing to a broadening of the recovery. Sector Aviation The three airlines’ 2024 results were in line but at the h...
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation: Airlines: Expecting a turnaround in 2025 on better supply-demand balance. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Results China Feihe (6186 HK/BUY/HK$5.87/Target: HK$6.80): 2024: Results miss; targets accelerated revenue growth but slight gross margin improvement in 2025. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/HOLD/HK$6.23/Target: HK$6.70): 2024: In line; poor wind resources weigh on power generation despite robust new installation. China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK/BUY/HK$13.90/Target...
On 16 March, the State Council issued a plan on special initiatives to boost consumption, aiming to increase spending power by increasing income and reducing financial burdens, generate effective demand through high-quality supply, and improve the consumption environment to strengthen consumers’ willingness to spend. In the China consumer sector, we prefer Anta, CR Beer, Galaxy, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Yili. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Jiumaojiu issued a profit warning for 2024, which implies a net loss not exceeding Rmb22m in 2H24. Management attributed the decline in net profit to: a) a drop in same-store performance, b) one-off store closure losses and impairment losses of no more than Rmb135m, and c) a decrease in other income. We refresh our 2024 revenue and earnings forecasts based on the profit warning, and cut our 2025 earnings forecast by 22%. Trim target price by 25% to HK$3.00. Downgrade to HOLD.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Initiate Coverage JBM Healthcare (2161 HK/BUY/HK$1.82/Target: HK$2.42) JBM is a leading branded healthcare provider in Hong Kong with a diversified portfolio. We expect enhanced brand recognition and accelerated e-commerce expansion to fuel future growth and forecast EPS growing at a three-year CAGR of 22.3% in FY25-27. We also like JBM for its solid cash flow generation and decent capital allocation. Initiate coverage with BUY and a target price of HK$2.42 based on 10.3x FY26F ...
GREATER CHINA Initiate Coverage JBM Healthcare (2161 HK/BUY/HK$1.82/Target: HK$2.42) Revitalising iconic pharma heritage brands. Results Wharf Real Estate Investment Co (1997 HK/BUY/HK$20.55/Target: HK$23.10) 2024: Underlying net profit met expectation; lower finance costs being key driver of profits amid top-line uncertainties. Update Jiumaojiu International Holdings (9922 HK/HOLD/HK$3.08/Target: HK$3.00) ...
Consumption during the CNY demonstrated a satisfactory momentum. Daily average sales revenue of consumer-related industries grew 11% yoy, with the home appliances and furnishing category recording the highest growth rate. Domestic tourism per capita spending increased 1% yoy and recovered to 95% of 2019’s level, and Hainan DF per capita spending rose 4% yoy. Macau visitations recovered to 95% of 2019’s level. In the China consumer space, we prefer Anta, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Sands Ch...
We do not expect a strong consumption momentum for the upcoming CNY holiday, but expect home appliance, Macau gaming, movie and retail to be the bright spots. We prefer Anta, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Sands in China’s consumer space.
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation Airlines: The three major airlines’ 2024 preliminary earnings estimates were below expectations – still loss-making. Healthcare TCM: GPO price pressure continues to cloud 2025’s growth outlook. Consumer CNY preview: Expect home appli...
In 4Q24, Jiumaojiu's table turnover rates worsened further, though business operations ytd showed an improvement compared with Dec 24, due to the winter vacation season. On a positive note, ASP improved on reduced promotions. For 2025, management does not have a guidance on store expansion, while insisting on being cautious on new store openings and continuing to close underperforming stores, which may lead to further impairment losses in 2H24. Maintain BUY; cut target price by 23% to HK$4.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Property: Hong Kong Landlords In 2024, Hong Kong saw a recovery in the number of visitors, but per capita spending weakened further. For 2025 we expect a stronger-than-expected Hong Kong dollar to continue to diminish the competitiveness of Hong Kong tourism and shopping, and weigh on the valuation of landlords. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Trim earnings for Wharf REIC and Hysan. Lower the target prices for our covered stocks. LINK REIT is our top pick for the resilience of comm...
GREATER CHINA Sector Property: Per capita tourism spending weakens further despite a yoy increase in visitor numbers; 2025 will continue to be a challenging year. Update Jiumaojiu International Holdings (9922 HK/BUY/HK$2.74/Target: HK$4.00): Business operations deteriorate in 4Q24; being cautious on new store openings; continuous closures of underperforming stores may happen in 2025. INDONESIA Sector Property: Undemanding valuation amid increased uncertainty. MALAYSIA Update Hap Seng Plantati...
In 3Q24, Jiumaojiu saw a sequential improvement in table turnover rate and SSS, with further recovery during the Golden Week. Despite Song Hot Pot’s ASP showing a declining trend in 3Q24, mainly due to rising demand in gatherings and undergraduates’ promotions, Tai Er and Song Hot Pot saw ASP improving mom in the quarter. Management expects operating margin to improve in 2H24, supported by lower labour costs and amortisation expenses. Maintain BUY with a target price of HK$5.20.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Ping An Insurance Group (2318 HK/BUY/HK$49.05/Target: HK$69.00) Ping An delivered robust 3Q24 results with OPAT rising 22% yoy, driven by a strong performance in the life and P&C segments. The asset management business turned red due to impairment but reversal is possible if China’s economy improves further. NBV grew 1.1x in 3Q24, mainly supported by strong life premium growth and margin expansion. Although share price rose 30% mom, the strong earnings turnaround could...
GREATER CHINA Results Ping An Insurance Group (2318 HK/BUY/HK$49.05/Target: HK$69.00) 3Q24: Bountiful harvest after prolonged dry spell. ZTE Corporation (763 HK/HOLD/HK$21.05/Target: HK$19.00) 3Q24: Results miss, expect stringent cost controls before next capex cycle. Downgrade to HOLD. Zijin Mining (2899 HK/BUY/HK$17.40/Target: HK$21.90) 3Q24: In line; mining entities’ gross margin down 1.2ppt qoq on lower copper ASP. Update Jiumaojiu In...
China consumer stocks under our coverage have rebounded by 33% on average since end-Sep 24, but current valuations are still undemanding. With direct policy support and a potential wealth effect, we believe China consumers are restoring their confidence. China consumer companies should see better earnings visibility in 2024, which should support further re-rating. We suggest investors refocus on the China theme in the near term. We prefer Anta, Galaxy, Haidilao, Haier, Mengniu and Midea. Maintai...
GREATER CHINA Sector Consumer Golden Week: Tourism and home appliances the bright spots; refocus on China theme. Internet Government policy rollout to boost consumption and drive valuation repair. Update Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/HOLD/HK$340.80/Target: HK$355.00) Further valuation re-rating requires more sustainable AD...
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