reports
- ING Helpdesk
- David Vagman
- CFA
- Maxime Stranart
Universal Music Group/A shelter from the storm/HOLD
We trim our 2025F-27F estimates 2-3%, purely on FX, and up our TP slightly to €29.5, on higher financial investments (Spotify share price performance) and slightly higher long-term estimates. This follows a 2% EBITDA consensus beat on 5% better sales in 1Q25, backed by a very confident message from management on (1) broad-based DSPs subscription growth improvement, (2) achieving the 2028 targets (>7% sales CAGR, >10% EBITDA CAGR), thanks to incoming wholesale price increases, DSP own price incre...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Aedifica, Cofinimmo: Aedifica CMD feedback bpost: 1Q25 results beat strongly, outlook surprises Brunel: 1Q25 results disappoint on perm, weak revenue Cofinimmo, Aedifica: Negative reaction on Aedifica offer Eurocommercial Properties: Good with no surprise Montea: Good results, guidance reconfirmed Proximus: Small 1Q beat, guidance reiterated, soft commercial performance Sif Group: The jury is still out Talabat: Preview 1Q25 Universal Music Group: Peer Warner Music slowdown in streaming and prof...
GBLB GROUPE BRUXELLES LAMBERT SA
PNL POSTNL NV
COFB COFINIMMO SA
MONT MONTEA SCA
AED AEDIFICA SA
AALB AALBERTS N.V.
BPOST BPOST SA
BRNL BRUNEL INTERNATIONAL N.V.
VGP VGP NV
SIFG SIF HOLDING NV
UMG UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP NV
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
CTPNV CTP NV
TALABAT TALABAT HOLDING PLC
- Ahmed Ben Salem
DHL DHL GROUP
FP TOTAL SE
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
KNEBV KONE OYJ CLASS B
TKA TELEKOM AUSTRIA AG
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
DAI DAIMLER AG
RXL REXEL SA
MMK MAYR-MELNHOF KARTON AG
OMV OMV AG
AMUN AMUNDI SA
SCHP SCHINDLER HOLDING AG PREF
SAN SANOFI
NEX NEXANS SA
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
REP REPSOL SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
NEM NEMETSCHEK SE
KGX KION GROUP AG
AENA AENA SME SA
ANDR ANDRITZ AG
SNP PETROM S.A.
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
BP. BP P.L.C.
BBVA BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA S.A.
ADYEN ADYEN NV
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
UMG UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP NV
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB
STMN STRAUMANN HOLDING AG
GSK GSK PLC
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
DSFIR KONINKLIJKE DSM N.V.
- Ahmed Ben Salem
DHL DHL GROUP
FP TOTAL SE
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
KNEBV KONE OYJ CLASS B
TKA TELEKOM AUSTRIA AG
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
DAI DAIMLER AG
RXL REXEL SA
MMK MAYR-MELNHOF KARTON AG
OMV OMV AG
AMUN AMUNDI SA
SCHP SCHINDLER HOLDING AG PREF
SAN SANOFI
NEX NEXANS SA
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
CAP CAPGEMINI SE
REP REPSOL SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
NEM NEMETSCHEK SE
AENA AENA SME SA
ANDR ANDRITZ AG
SNP PETROM S.A.
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
BP. BP P.L.C.
BBVA BANCO BILBAO VIZCAYA ARGENTARIA S.A.
ADYEN ADYEN NV
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
UMG UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP NV
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB
STMN STRAUMANN HOLDING AG
GSK GSK PLC
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
DSFIR KONINKLIJKE DSM N.V.
- Jerôme Bodin
- Jerôme Bodin
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Aedifica: Strong Q1, improving fundamentals, further growth to come. Air France-KLM: Surprising Atlantic. Aperam: In-line 1Q25, seasonal better 2Q25 expected. ArcelorMittal: In-line 1Q25, risks to steel demand due to tariff uncertainty. ASM International: 1Q25 Results - FY25 headwinds from weak USD. Ayvens: Getting into Gear. dsm-firmenich: Transformation on Track. Lotus Bakeries: Peer Mondelez 1Q25 results. Melexis: Mixed 1Q25 results in unstable markets. Ontex: Two steps fo...
- ING Helpdesk
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Acomo: Cocoa-nuts. Cofinimmo: Strong operational start of the year. IMCD: Favourable start of the year. Randstad: Capital Markets Event 2025; rewriting the industry. Signify: Calm 1Q25 before tariff storm. Universal Music Group: EU to probe planned acquisition of Downtown Music. 1Q25 preview. WDP: Good investment, lighter LFL, guidance reconfirmed. Xior Student Housing: Strong organic trends continue. Events Calendar
- ING Helpdesk
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
GBL: Beat on NAV thanks to strong Affidea & Sanoptis, changes in governance. OCI: 2H24 EBITDA loss on soft Nitrogen Europe and corporate costs. Proximus: Belgian state not yet proposing a new chairman. Universal Music Group: Ackman to sell a 2.7% stake. Vopak: Aiming for acceleration, opportunities promising
- Emira Sagaama
- Margaux van Oerle
- Stephane Houri
- Thomas Zlowodzki
CON CONTINENTAL AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
IPS IPSOS
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
GET GETLINK SE
RNO RENAULT SA
KPN ROYAL KPN NV
ORA ORANGE SA
EO FAURECIA SA
DAI DAIMLER AG
POM PLASTIC OMNIUM SE
TYRES NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ
GAMA GAMMA COMMUNICATIONS
LSS LECTRA SA
HAL HAL TRUST
G ASSICURAZIONI GENERALI S.P.A.
FR VALEO SE
GEBN GEBERIT AG
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
WPP WPP PLC
AMP AMPLIFON S.P.A.
NEM NEMETSCHEK SE
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
ELI ELIA GROUP SA/NV
CIE CIE AUTOMOTIVE S.A.
KGX KION GROUP AG
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
MELE MELEXIS NV
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
POST OSTERREICHISCHE POST AG
RACE FERRARI NV
IDR INDRA SISTEMAS S.A. CLASS A
BIM BIOMERIEUX SA
PIRC PIRELLI & C. S.P.A.
REY REPLY S.P.A.
VOD VODAFONE GROUP PLC
GEST GESTAMP AUTOMOCION S.A.
WAVE WAVESTONE SA
PRX PROSUS N.V. CLASS N
FDJ LA FRANCAISE DES JEUX SA
DSC1 DUTCH STAR C SHAR
AML ASTON MARTIN LAGONDA GLOBAL HOLDINGS
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
AG1 AUTO1 GROUP
NA9 NAGARRO
UMG UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP NV
DSY DASSAULT SYSTEMES SA
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
ALIV SDB AUTOLIV INC.
BRE BREMBO S.P.A.
EXENS EXOSENS
AMS AMS-OSRAM AG
- Anthony Dick
- Emira Sagaama
- Margaux van Oerle
- Michael Foundoukidis
- Stephane Houri
- Thomas Zlowodzki
CON CONTINENTAL AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
GET GETLINK SE
RNO RENAULT SA
ORA ORANGE SA
EO FAURECIA SA
DAI DAIMLER AG
POM PLASTIC OMNIUM SE
TYRES NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ
HAL HAL TRUST
G ASSICURAZIONI GENERALI S.P.A.
FR VALEO SE
GEBN GEBERIT AG
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
AMP AMPLIFON S.P.A.
ELI ELIA GROUP SA/NV
CIE CIE AUTOMOTIVE S.A.
KGX KION GROUP AG
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
RACE FERRARI NV
BIM BIOMERIEUX SA
PIRC PIRELLI & C. S.P.A.
GEST GESTAMP AUTOMOCION S.A.
FDJ LA FRANCAISE DES JEUX SA
AML ASTON MARTIN LAGONDA GLOBAL HOLDINGS
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
UMG UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP NV
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
ALIV SDB AUTOLIV INC.
BRE BREMBO S.P.A.
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Acomo: A game of two halves. Ahold Delhaize: Peer Kroger FY24 results. Belgian telecoms: Telenet 2.9% price increase. D'Ieteren: FY24 results preview. Elia: Strong results and 2025 outlook, €2.2bn equity financing. Eurocommercial Properties: Sound results, positive revaluations, lighter LTV. Melexis: Attractive bid on direct peer Allegro. Universal Music Group: Much better Q4 - on strong subscription, DSP catch-up payment.
- Jerôme Bodin
- Jerôme Bodin
- David Vagman
- CFA
- Maxime Stranart
Universal Music Group/4Q24 preview and model update on Streaming 2.0 d...
We update our model ahead of the 4Q24 results. We up our target price from €26.5 to €29.0, factoring in the new Spotify and Amazon deals around UMG's Streaming 2.0 strategy and Amazon price increase; FX changes. We keep our HOLD as we think the great news on new deals with DSPs are an integral part of UMG 2028 guidance, and the uncertainty around FCF use. The deals clearly gave more certainty about achieving the targets, UMG taking pricing in its own hands, back in control, which is welcome give...
- Jerôme Bodin
HEIA HEINEKEN NV
UBSN UBS GROUP AG
CA CARREFOUR SA
TKA TELEKOM AUSTRIA AG
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
AFX CARL ZEISS MEDITEC AG
KER KERING SA
RAND RANDSTAD NV
SCHP SCHINDLER HOLDING AG PREF
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
BP. BP P.L.C.
ENR SIEMENS ENERGY AG
UMG UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP NV
- Jerôme Bodin
HEIA HEINEKEN NV
UBSN UBS GROUP AG
CA CARREFOUR SA
TKA TELEKOM AUSTRIA AG
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
AFX CARL ZEISS MEDITEC AG
KER KERING SA
RAND RANDSTAD NV
SCHP SCHINDLER HOLDING AG PREF
DTE DEUTSCHE TELEKOM AG
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
BP. BP P.L.C.
ENR SIEMENS ENERGY AG
UMG UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP NV
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