reports
- David Vagman
- CFA
- Maxime Stranart
- Jerôme Bodin
LR LEGRAND SA
FRA FRAPORT AG
LI KLEPIERRE SA
ALV ALLIANZ SE
ORSTED ORSTED
RAA RATIONAL AG
INGA ING GROEP NV
SAN BANCO SANTANDER S.A.
IHG INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC
MRNA MODERNA INC.
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
UMG UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP NV
DSY DASSAULT SYSTEMES SA
DTG DAIMLER TRUCK
LIN LINDE PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
- Bruno Cavalier
- Jerôme Bodin
LR LEGRAND SA
FRA FRAPORT AG
LI KLEPIERRE SA
ALV ALLIANZ SE
ORSTED ORSTED
RAA RATIONAL AG
INGA ING GROEP NV
SAN BANCO SANTANDER S.A.
IHG INTERCONTINENTAL HOTELS GROUP PLC
MRNA MODERNA INC.
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
UMG UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP NV
DSY DASSAULT SYSTEMES SA
DTG DAIMLER TRUCK
LIN LINDE PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Aperam: In-line 1Q24 EBITDA, FCF marked by WC build, 2Q24 guidance below consensus. Ayvens: Taking the brakes off. BAM: Not the best start to the year. bpost: 1Q24 in line with consensus but beat vs INGF, no outlook yet. Brunel International: good set of 1Q24 results – 5% beat on EBIT, comforting trends. B&S Group: Preview - should be a non-event. DEME Group: Preview - should be a non-event. D'Ieteren: Febiac April registrations flat YoY, VW brands up 8.4%. GBL: NAV per share in ...
- Jerôme Bodin
UMG : A solid Q1 on margins but our forecasts for 2024 are unchanged -...
>A good Q1 in terms of the EBITDA margin, buoyed by the mix - Yesterday evening, UMG published Q1 results that came in a shade above our expectations with adjusted EBITDA of € 591m vs our forecast of € 573m, i.e. a 150bp improvement in the margin, buoyed by a favourable mix and robust growth in publishing. Growth at constant forex in the paid streaming activity (+12.3%) came in slightly below our forecast of 13.5% confirming a relatively dynamic quarter that remains u...
- Jerôme Bodin
UMG : Un T1 solide sur la marge mais nos attentes 2024 restent inchang...
>Un bon T1 en termes de marge d’EBITDA porté par le mix - UMG a publié hier soir des résultats T1 légèrement supérieurs à notre attente avec un EBITDA ajusté de 591 M€ alors que nous tablions sur 573 M€ soit une marge en progression de 150 pb, porté par un mix favorable et une croissance soutenue du publishing. La croissance à taux de change constant sur la partie streaming payant (+12,3%) est un peu en-dessous de notre attente de 13,5% confirmant un trimestre assez d...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
ASM International: 1Q24 results - better on all fronts. Heineken: Uphill from here. KPN: 1Q24 in line, guidance slightly increased on Youfone acquisition. Melexis: 1Q24 results in line a relief. Universal Music Group: Spotify 1Q24 Results and guidance beat on margins. Vopak: Good progress to start the year. Wereldhave: 1Q24 LFL slows sharply
- Baptiste Lebacq
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/05/2024
Several themes are set to drive the 2024 proxy season, among them the change of voting policy of ISS and a tipping point for climate resolutions. It will also be the last one before the first CSRD reports. Its long-term impact on Boards could also be underestimated. A wave of appointments of specialized sustainability profiles would upset their balance. We identify the AGMs likely to be play the most decisive role for the companies in the medium term: Alstom, Teleperformance, Worldlin...
FP TOTAL SE
AMS AMS AG
AI AIR LIQUIDE SA
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
RI PERNOD RICARD SA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
ELG ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR SE
TPE PVA TEPLA AG
ENI ENI S.P.A.
SAF SAFRAN S.A.
REP REPSOL SA
SOI SOITEC SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
AIXA AIXTRON SE
PFV PFEIFFER VACUUM TECHNOLOGY AG
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
WAF SILTRONIC AG
MELE MELEXIS NV
SMHN SUESS MICROTEC AG
VACN VAT GROUP AG
XFAB X-FAB SILICON FOUNDRIES SE
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
BP. BP P.L.C.
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
ALKAL KALRAY SA
JEN JENOPTIK AG
UMG UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP NV
SHEL SHELL PLC
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
- Baptiste Lebacq
- Emmanuel Matot
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 05/04/2024
Plusieurs éléments animeront les assemblées générales 2024 : changement de politique de vote d’ISS, résolutions climat à un tournant… alors que cette saison est la dernière avant les premiers rapports CSRD. Celle-ci pourrait d’ailleurs avoir un impact long terme sous-estimé sur les conseils. Une vague de nominations de profils spécialisés en durabilité bouleverserait leurs équilibres. Nous identifions les AG les plus déterminantes pour la gouvernance des sociétés à moyen terme : Alsto...
FP TOTAL SE
AMS AMS AG
AI AIR LIQUIDE SA
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
RI PERNOD RICARD SA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
ELG ELMOS SEMICONDUCTOR SE
TPE PVA TEPLA AG
ENI ENI S.P.A.
SAF SAFRAN S.A.
REP REPSOL SA
SOI SOITEC SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
AIXA AIXTRON SE
PFV PFEIFFER VACUUM TECHNOLOGY AG
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
WAF SILTRONIC AG
MELE MELEXIS NV
SMHN SUESS MICROTEC AG
VACN VAT GROUP AG
XFAB X-FAB SILICON FOUNDRIES SE
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
BP. BP P.L.C.
STM STMICROELECTRONICS NV
BESI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
ALKAL KALRAY SA
JEN JENOPTIK AG
UMG UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP NV
SHEL SHELL PLC
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
- Jerôme Bodin
UMG : Q1 still robust for streaming, pending likely fresh price hikes ...
>Momentum remains robust on pay streaming - We are issuing an update on our Q1 forecasts for UMG. The group is set to report its earnings at end-April, with no date announced yet. We expect momentum over the quarter, notably for the pay streaming segment, with growth at constant forex at 13.5%, still buoyed by the 2023 price hikes and Spotify in particular. The group is unlikely to be impacted by the cost savings plan announced alongside its full-year earnings. It is ...
- Jerôme Bodin
UMG : Un T1 toujours solide sur le streaming, en attendant de probable...
>La dynamique reste solide sur le streaming payant - Nous faisons un point sur nos attentes pour le T1 d’UMG. Le groupe publiera ses résultats fin avril, date non publique pour le moment. Nous tablons sur un trimestre dynamique, notamment sur la partie « streaming payant » avec une croissance à changes constants de 13,5% toujours portée par les hausses de prix de 2023 et tout particulièrement Spotify. Le groupe ne devrait pas encore être impacté par le plan d’économi...
- ING Helpdesk
- ING Helpdesk
- Chaima Ferrandon
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Michael Foundoukidis
- Sven Edelfelt
LHN LAFARGEHOLCIM LTD.
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AG
1COV COVESTRO AG
GET GETLINK SE
VIE VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT SA
DGE DIAGEO PLC
RNO RENAULT SA
MTX MTU AERO ENGINES AG
FGR EIFFAGE SA
DAI DAIMLER AG
ADEN ADECCO GROUP AG
IAG INTERNATIONAL CONSOLIDATED AIRLINES GROUP SA
ELE ENDESA S.A.
GN GN STORE NORD A/S
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
EDW EDP RENOVAVEIS SA
AMS AMADEUS IT GROUP SA CLASS A
KGX KION GROUP AG
ASRNL ASR NEDERLAND NV
MONC MONCLER SPA
PRY PRYSMIAN S.P.A.
WLN WORLDLINE SA
NN NN GROUP N.V.
MERLIN MERLIN PROPERTIES SOCIMI S.A.
ABI ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV
ARGX ARGEN-X SE
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
UMG UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP NV
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
UN0 UNIPER SE
- Chaima Ferrandon
- Charlotte Vaisse
- Jean-Baptiste Rouphael
- Michael Foundoukidis
- Sven Edelfelt
LHN LAFARGEHOLCIM LTD.
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AG
1COV COVESTRO AG
GET GETLINK SE
VIE VEOLIA ENVIRONNEMENT SA
DGE DIAGEO PLC
RNO RENAULT SA
MTX MTU AERO ENGINES AG
FGR EIFFAGE SA
DAI DAIMLER AG
ADEN ADECCO GROUP AG
IAG INTERNATIONAL CONSOLIDATED AIRLINES GROUP SA
ELE ENDESA S.A.
GN GN STORE NORD A/S
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
EDW EDP RENOVAVEIS SA
AMS AMADEUS IT GROUP SA CLASS A
KGX KION GROUP AG
ASRNL ASR NEDERLAND NV
MONC MONCLER SPA
PRY PRYSMIAN S.P.A.
WLN WORLDLINE SA
NN NN GROUP N.V.
MERLIN MERLIN PROPERTIES SOCIMI S.A.
ABI ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV
ARGX ARGEN-X SE
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
UMG UNIVERSAL MUSIC GROUP NV
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
UN0 UNIPER SE
- Jerôme Bodin
UMG : Model still solid and cost savings plan slightly bigger than we ...
>Outperform rating maintained, slight upgrade to our target price given the details on cost savings - UMG yesterday reported its full-year 2023 results, followed by a conference call. Adjusted EBITDA came in at € 2.369bn vs our forecast of € 2.383bn and € 2.372bn for the consensus. Q4 organic growth came in at 16% with +15% for recorded music, driven by another excellent performance from physical sales but also pay streaming - +300bp of additional growth vs our expect...
- Jerôme Bodin
UMG : Le modèle reste solide et le plan d’économies de coûts est un pe...
>Opinion Surperformance confirmée, léger relèvement de notre objectif de cours compte tenu des précisions sur les économies de coûts - UMG a publié ses résultats annuels 2023 hier et a tenu dans la foulée sa conférence téléphonique. L’EBITDA ajusté ressort à 2 369 M€ alors que nous tablions sur 2 383 M€ et le consensus sur 2 372 M€. La croissance organique T4 est ressortie à 16% dont +15% pour la musique enregistrée, tirée par une nouvelle très bonne performance des ...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
ABN Amro: 4Q23 Preview. New targets, capital distribution strategy. BAM: Preview: 2023 should be fine, focus on 2024. IBA: Pantera signs first agreement for the supply of Actinium-225 with Bayer. Randstad: 4Q23 results in line with consensus; 3% beat vs INGF. Wereldhave: Good results, a JV and/or new countries might come. Results Calendar
- David Vagman
- CFA
- Maxime Stranart
Universal Music Group/4Q23 preview and model update/BUY
We update our model ahead of the 4Q23/FY23 results. We expect the 4Q23 adj. EBITDA margin to very slightly beat Visible Alpha consensus with the price increases in Spotify effective in the full quarter but we have slightly lower sales, on more negative FX. Both consensus and our estimates are in line with UMG guidance of an adj. EBITDA margin increase of at least 100bp. We pencil in €50m of restructuring lay-off costs in 2024F, with no real benefit in terms of margins. We raise our target price ...
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Avantium: Right(s) on cue. Corbion: Doubling Down. KPN: FCF better on WCR, FCF guidance a bit better on tax and interest expenses. Lotus Bakeries: Mondelez International FY23 results. Staffing: Manpower - adj. EPS 4Q23 beat, 1Q24 outlook below, stabilization in US, UK. Universal Music Group: TikTok agreement expiry, YouTube 4Q23 Ad revenue up 15.5%
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