SpareBank 1 Østlandet (Hold, TP: NOK140.00) - On HOLD after strong Q1

Fuelled by further NII expansion, the tax benefit of customer dividends, strong trading income and low loan losses, SPOL reported a Q1 ROE of 17.4% (>12% target), despite NOK26m of merger-related costs. We have made minor changes to our 2025–2026e EPS and reiterate our NOK140 target price. However, after the recent share price appreciation, we find more attractive risk/reward elsewhere in the sector. Thus, with the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~9.2x, we have downgraded to HOLD (BUY).

SpareBank1 Nord-Norge (Buy, TP: NOK115.00) - Loan-loss downtick

Helped by continued NII momentum and moderate loan losses, NONG reported a strong Q1 ROE of 17.8%, even with somewhat elevated cost inflation. Boosted by improved lending margins and decent lending growth, ‘real NII’ rose 1.7%, despite one less interest day and deposit margin pressure. While the CET1 ratio fell ~10bp QOQ, the bank has a solid ~120bp buffer to its 15.8% requirement, boding well for further generous dividend distributions. With the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~8.7x, we continu...

Sparebank 1 SMN (Buy, TP: NOK167.00) - Sustained NII momentum

Supported by further NII expansion, strong non-interest income and low loan losses, Q1 ROE was 16.0%, despite sustained cost pressure. Adjusted for the NOK59m positive one-off in Q4, ‘real NII’ rose another 7.3% QOQ, even with one fewer interest day. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by ~1–2%, driven by higher NII, and our target price to NOK167 (161). With the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~9.1x, we continue to find the valuation attractive and reiterate our BUY.

Margins still to peak

Adj. PTP up 2%, driven by associates and asset quality. Adj. EPS'24e-25e up by 2% and 6% amid higher lending & NIM. Strong fundamentals shown in its fine valuation: HOLD.

Higher costs weigh on results

Adj. PTP -1% vs. ABGSCe, -3% vs. cons driven by weaker costs vs. cons. Cons. '24e-'26e EPS rev. likely down 1-4%

Stronger income, lower losses but high costs

Adj. PTP beat of 4% vs. ABGSCe, 3% vs. cons (amid lower LLP). Strong quality income beat, but adj cost mute give PBLL beat 1%. Cons. '24e-26e EPS chg. up 1-2%, stock 1-3% today

Sparebanken Sør (Buy, TP: NOK162.00) - Robust Q1 profitability

Boosted by the tax benefit of customer dividends, strong trading income and low loan losses, SOR reported a Q1 ROE of 14.4%. Despite some pressure on deposit margins from high levels, NII rose 1.1% QOQ, helped by improved lending margins and solid corporate growth. Driven by the latter and a raised ownership share in Brage, the CET1 ratio fell by ~20bp QOQ to 16.6% (requirement including P2G reduced to 15.9%). At a 2025e P/E of ~8.6x, we find the valuation undemanding and reiterate our BUY and N...

Nordic banks – statistical update – Swedish bankruptcies April 2024

The total number of bankruptcies was up 65% y-o-y and up 16% m-o-m in April 2024. Corporate bankruptcies were up 81% y-o-y and up 16% m-o-m in April 2024.

Cost efficiency and growth story priced in

Q1: Adj. net profit +3% vs. ABGSCe and -4% vs. cons. on cost & tax. Adj. EPS up 2% and 4% for '24e-'25e (income, costs & LLP). At 1.5x P/NAV it's a well priced growth & efficiency story: HOLD (Buy).

Sparebanken Vest (Buy, TP: NOK139.00) - Continued strong ROE and growt...

Boosted by the tax advantage of customer dividends, continued strong lending growth, YOY cost reductions and robust asset quality, SVEG reported a Q1 ROE of 21.6%. Moreover, with the approval and implementation of new IRB risk models, in addition to strong earnings, the CET1 ratio rose ~70bp QOQ. Trading at a 2025e P/E of ~9.2x, we continue to find the valuation undemanding, and reiterate our BUY and NOK139 target price.

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Norwegian lending March 2024

Total lending grew by 3.3% y-o-y (3.4% adjusted for FX effects) and 0.3% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 3.3% y-o-y.

Q1: Stronger growth than expected

Adj. PTP beat of 2% vs. ABGSCe and cons. 2-7% better costs gives CI/ of ~25%. Cons. est. rev. likely +/-1%; Stock down 0-2%.

Nordic Banks - Statistical update - Swedish lending, March 2024

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Danish lending, February 2024

SpareBank 1 Helgeland (Hold, TP: NOK134.00) - Turn in NII momentum

Helped by strong trading income, HELG reported a Q1 ROE of ~12% versus its >11% target, despite the pre-announced elevated loan losses. With one less interest day and margin pressure, ‘real NII’ fell 2.2% QOQ. While down QOQ, the CET1 ratio remained solid at 18.1% (>16.5% target). We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by ~3–5%, driven by lower NII, and lowered our target price to NOK134 (139). Trading at a 2025e P/E of ~9.0x, we continue to find a more attractive risk/reward elsewhere in the sector and...

SpareBank 1 Sørøst-Norge (Hold, TP: NOK68.00) - Q1 ROE above target

Helped by dividends of NOK57m from the SB1 mortgage companies and moderate loan losses, SOON reported a Q1 ROE of 11.9% versus its >11% target. While still solid, ‘real NII’ fell marginally QOQ. With ~2.8%-points headroom to its capital requirement (including a 1% management buffer) at end-Q1, the bank has ample dividend capacity. We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by ~2–3%, driven by lower NII. To remain in line with SRBNK’s agreed purchase price (0.48 SRBNK shares per SOON share + NOK4.3 DPS), we ...

Sparebanken Møre (Hold, TP: NOK92.00) - Strong capital position

With NII at still-high levels and moderate loan losses, MORG reported a Q1 ROE of ~13% (>12% target), despite elevated cost inflation. Even with solid lending growth, the CET1 ratio rose ~25bp QOQ, leaving ample 2.3%-points headroom to its 16.15% requirement (including P2G). We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by ~2–4%, driven by lower core revenues and higher costs, and in turn trimmed our target price to NOK92 (95). With the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of 9.5x, we continue to find a more attractiv...

SpareBank1 SR-Bank (Buy, TP: NOK158.00) - Solid growth and asset quali...

With NII remaining at high levels and modest loan losses, SRBNK reported a Q1 ROE of 14.6% versus its >13% target. Following strong lending growth of 2.3% QOQ, the CET1 ratio was flat QOQ, with the bank highlighting cNOK2.5bn synergy potential from the pending merger with SpareBank 1 Sørøst-Norge. We have made only minor changes to our 2025–2026e EPS. With the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~8.9x, we continue to find the valuation attractive. We reiterate our BUY and NOK158 target price.

In need of a higher ROE

Adj. PTP +10% vs. ABGSCe (lower cost and loan losses). EPS up +6%, +5% and 6% for '24e/25e/26e. Valuation in line with fundamentals: HOLD.

Stronger growth and better costs

Adj. PTP beat of 10% vs. ABGSCe, 2% vs cons. driven by lower loan losses and better costs as income just soft. Cons. EPS chg. likely down 1-3%, stock likely flat to -2% today