Elopak (Hold, TP: NOK40.00) - Tight ship in rough waters

We estimate Q1 EBITDA of EUR44m, down 6% YOY and 2% below consensus. With EMEA still seeing weak consumer sentiment, we expect a 3% decline in divisional revenue, partly offset by pent-up machine sales. Q1 is set to be the last quarter without commercial support from Little Rock; we expect a flat trend QOQ on continued production constraints. We have lowered our 2026–2027e EPS by 2–1%. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to NOK40 (44).

Two negatives and one positive

Q1 preview

Feb: Pulp shipments +0.3% y-o-y

January: Pulp shipments +6.2% y-o-y

No easy pour, but remains in shape

Elopak (Hold, TP: NOK44.00) - Slightly soft results

Q4 adj. EBITDA was EUR41m, in line with consensus, while adj. EPS of EUR0.04 missed our EUR0.05 estimate and consensus of EUR0.06, due to a high one-off tax cost. In EMEA, adj. EBITDA of EUR31m missed our forecast, while the Americas kept its momentum with adj. EBITDA of EUR19m, above our estimate. We have reduced our 2025–2026e EPS by 1–3%. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to NOK44 (45).

Adj. EBITDA -3%, in line on IFRS - Q1 likely better

Elopak (Hold, TP: NOK45.00) - Soft finish to a strong year

We expect Q4 EBITDA of EUR43m, in line with consensus, but slightly down from previous quarters on continued consumer downtrading and a lack of relief from Americas, which is running at full capacity. We have made minor cuts to our 2025–2026e EPS by c0-2% on potential hits to Canada- and Mexico-to-US exports, higher wood prices affecting packaging-board negotiations, and sticky down-trading. We reiterate our HOLD and target price of NOK45.

December: Pulp shipments +1% y-o-y

Little momentum, more value

Q4 preview

November: Pulp shipments -4% y-o-y

CO2 allowances - easy come, easy go

September: Pulp shipments -10% y-o-y

Elopak (Hold, TP: NOK45.00) - Uneventful Q3

Q3 EBITDA of EUR45m was in line with our estimate and consensus, but EPS of EUR0.06 disappointed due to higher-than-expected losses on financial instruments. We have edged up our 2025–2026e EPS by 1–2%, based on improved visibility on volume assumptions in the Americas. We forecast Q4 EBITDA of EUR47m and reiterate our HOLD and raise our target price to NOK45 (44).

It's not a sprint, it's a marathon

Headline EBITDA in line, below on IFRS

Stora acquires a Finnish sawmill company

Elopak (Hold, TP: NOK44.00) - Boost on both sides of the Atlantic

With continued growth in the Americas and a stable quarter in EMEA, we expect Q3 EBITDA of EUR45m, in line with consensus. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS estimate by 1-3% to reflect earnings growth potential in the Americas. We believe the stock is fairly valued at a 2024e P/E of ~14x and reiterate our HOLD but raise our target price to NOK44 (39).