March: Pulp shipments +8% y-o-y

The milkman delivers again

Better from both segments — capturing market share. MTM EBITDA EUR 175m — adj. EPS ~NOK 3.4. 30% discount to peers — targets point to NOK 55/sh.

Elopak (Hold, TP: NOK37.00) - Higher-than-expected Q1 margins

Elopak reported strong Q1 results, with the EBITDA margin in its European operations beating our and consensus forecast. We see the potential for an increased group EBITDA margin target at the CMD in September. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 7%, and in turn our target price to NOK37 (34). At the same time, we believe margins are at the high end of normalised levels, and struggle to see material upside potential from here. Trading at a 2025e P/E of ~12x, and with limited organic top-line gr...

9% EBITDA beat

EBITDA 9% above, margin 15.8%. Better from both EMEA (and Americas). Outlook reads positive

Elopak (Hold, TP: NOK34.00) - EBITDA set to be largely flat YOY

We expect Elopak to report Q1 EBITDA of EUR42m and an EPS adj. of EUR0.06 (results due at 07:00 CET on 8 May), which is largely flat YOY in Europe and the Americas. We expect the European division to continue its strong performance from Q4 and for volumes to be solid. We have increased our 2024–2025e EPS by a modest ~1% and have raised our target price to NOK34 (29), primarily driven by multiples expansion in the peer group. We struggle to see material upside to the share price at a 2025e P/E of...

Elopak (Hold, TP: NOK29.00) - Q4 largely in line

Elopak reported Q4 adj. EBITDA of EUR40m, ~6–2% below our estimate and consensus. The result was driven by a softer quarter than we had forecast from EMEA, which achieved adj. EBITDA of EUR28m, c17% below our forecast, driven by lower margins than we had forecast (13% versus our estimate of 16%), while sales were ~3% above our forecast. We have reduced our 2024–2025e EPS by a modest ~1–0% on the back of the report, and keep our NOK29 target price. We struggle to see material upside to the share ...

Elopak (Hold, TP: NOK29.00) - Revenues growth set to normalise

We expect Q4 adj. EBITDA of ~EUR42m, implying 2023e adj. EBITDA of EUR173m (EUR120m in 2022), reflecting price increases exceeding cost inflation. Elopak seems set to return to normalised earnings after a period of highly volatile input costs and prices. We estimate future sales growth and margins to be in line with Elopak’s medium-term targets. We have raised our target price to NOK29 (27) and reiterate our HOLD: the stock is trading at a 2025e P/E of ~10x and an implied dividend yield of ~5%.

Elopak (Hold, TP: NOK24.00) - Returning to normal

We expect Q3 EBITDA of EUR42m (results due at 07:00 CET on 2 November), 11% above consensus, reflecting that costs have started to stabilise. We have made minor estimate revisions for 2024–2025, although we still see a risk Elopak may have to roll back some of its price rises given the recent cost relief (mainly in PE, aluminium and electricity). We continue to regard the stock as fairly valued at a 2024e P/E of ~9.5x, and with an implied 2024–2025e dividend yield of ~5–6%. We reiterate our HOLD...

Northern Lights

Elopak (Hold, TP: NOK24.00) - Q2 confirms cost control

Elopak reported solid Q2 results, with adj. EBITDA of EUR42m, 6% above our estimate and consensus, mainly driven by EMEA. It stated that Q2 reflected most of the rawboard cost hikes, as well as some continued positive inventory effects. Sales in Americas were lower than expected due to soft school milk volumes. We have raised our 2023–2024e EPS by ~2% following the report, and still consider Elopak fairly valued at a 2024e P/E of ~9.7x and an implied dividend yield of ~5.2%. We reiterate our HOL...

Elopak (Hold, TP: NOK24.00) - Helped by lower raw materials costs

We expect Q1 adj. EBITDA of EUR39m, 4% above consensus, helped by higher volumes in EMEA QOQ slightly offset by higher rawboard prices from Q2, giving EMEA adj. EBITDA of EUR31m (EUR32m in Q1). We expect Americas to remain on a solid trajectory, with adj. EBITDA of EUR16m, in line with the Q1 result. We have made minor estimate changes and still consider Elopak fairly valued at a 2024e P/E of ~10x with an implied dividend yield of ~4.9%. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to NOK...

Northern Lights

Elopak (Hold, TP: NOK25.00) - Margins set to revert

Elopak reported solid Q1 figures, with adjusted EBITDA of EUR41m, beating our estimates and consensus by 17–24%. The main contributors to the beat were a stronger impact than we had expected from price hikes in EMEA coupled with delayed effects from higher raw board prices. We have increased our 2024–2025e EPS by ~3% following the report and have thus raised our target price to NOK25 (24). We believe Elopak is fairly valued at a 2024e P/E of ~10.7x, and an implied dividend yield of ~4.7%. We rei...

Northern Lights

Elopak (Hold, TP: NOK24.00) - Temporary margin gain in Q1e

We expect Q1 adj. EBITDA of EUR35m (results due at 07:00 CET on 4 May), 7% above consensus, driven by price increases meant to offset higher rawboard costs, while the higher rawboard prices are not set to have full effect before Q2, suggesting Elopak will see a temporary margin gain in Q1. We have made minor estimate revisions ahead of the Q1 results and believe Elopak is fairly valued at a 2024e P/E of ~10.9x, and an implied dividend yield of ~4.6%. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK24 target price.

Northern Lights

Elopak (Hold, TP: NOK24.00) - Navigating through cost inflation

Elopak’s Q4 results were solid, with EBITDA of EUR34m, 3–5% above our forecast and consensus, and demonstrated its ability to offset higher costs through price increases. The quarter was also marked by a dampening effect from raw materials headwinds, which hurt EBITDA by EUR9m (versus EUR17m in Q3). Our 2023–2024e EPS are largely unchanged, as our estimates already reflect increased prices offsetting higher rawboard costs for 2023e. We continue to find Elopak fairly valued at a 2024e P/E of ~11x...

Northern Lights

Elopak (Hold, TP: NOK24.00) - Rawboard spoils the fun

We expect a Q4 adj. EBITDA of EUR33m (results due at 07:00 CET on 21 February), in line with consensus, marked by pricing tailwinds and a declining COGS related to polyethylene, aluminium and electricity. However, Elopak renegotiated rawboard contracts in Q4, at which point index prices were up ~26% YOY, prompting further cost headaches for 2023e, as rawboard constitutes ~50% of Elopak’s COGS in a ‘normal’ year. We have cut our 2023e EPS by 8% due to higher cost estimates but forecast a more nor...

Sector Fast Comment - October pulp data: shipments +2% y-o-y

Global shipments: +2% y-o-y, China +8% Pulp prices have started to fall but show resilience '23 supply manageable, but a recession could hit demand