Pick your contender

Following our ‘investment company weeks’ at DNB Markets in Stockholm, we give a brief update on our view of the sector and summarise our impressions from lunch presentations with 13 investment company CEOs. From a broader perspective, we note the increased investor interest in the sector, as well as the structurally lower discounts to NAV, albeit not in the VC-oriented companies. We continue to have Investor as our sector top pick, with additional BUYs on Latour, Kinnevik, VEF and Flerie.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we hosted investor lunches with the CEOs of Svolder and Byggmästaren at our Stockholm office; 2) we met with Investor, which is continuing to execute on its M&A agenda; 3) we met with VEF, which is seeing positive momentum for fintech VCs in its core markets of Brazil and India.

The weekly navigator

This week, we hosted investor lunches with the CEOs of VNV Global, Latour, Flat Capital, Linc and Aeternum Capital at our Stockholm office.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight our investor lunches with the CEOs of Spiltan, Industrivärden, Creades, Bure and Öresund at our Stockholm offices.

Mölnlycke continues to take market share

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we upgraded Latour to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to SEK332 (285), as we see enough positives to look beyond the steep premium to NAV; 2) we upgraded Lundbergs to HOLD (SELL) and raised our target price to SEK555 (510), as we believe the negative triggers have long since played out and have a more positive view on its real estate exposure; and 3) Investor announced a new CFO. Also, tomorrow marks the start of our ‘investment company weeks’ at DNB M...

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we initiated coverage of Flerie, a life science investment company that offers investors access to a rare part of the Nordic healthcare ecosystem, with a BUY and SEK70 target price; 2) Latour’s newly created business area Innovalift made a significant acquisition; and 3) we will host a series of lunches with Nordic investment companies’ CEOs at our Stockholm office in September. The Weekly Navigator will now take a summer break until late August.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we raised our target price to SEK325 and reiterated our BUY in Investor, as we believe the shrinking discount to NAV is warranted; 2) we reiterated our BUY and SEK3.5 target price in VEF, and like the profitable growth story in its largest holding, Creditas; and 3) Creades reported Q2 NAV up 8% QOQ, and we note the 20% raised valuation of Klarna.

Investor (Buy, TP: SEK325.00) - Discount contraction warranted

Investor’s NAV growth continued to outperform the SIXRX at 8% QOQ in Q2, the first quarter under Christian Cederholm’s leadership, underpinned by strong performance in the listed portfolio and earnings delivery across Patricia Industries. We advise investors to look beyond the recent discount to NAV contraction given its solid track record and potential for further portfolio activity on its conservative gearing. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK325 (290), reflecting 7%...

Outperformance set to resume

Strength in key Patricia Industries assets prompts positive revisions. We see 2024e EBITDA growth of 8%. BUY on strong outlook and valuation.

Q2: Patricia keeps up convincing performance

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we reiterated our HOLD and SEK380 target price on Industrivärden, underlining our positive portfolio view; 2) we reiterated our BUY on Kinnevik, but lowered our target price to SEK112 (135), reflecting the SEK23 capital distribution; and 3) we believe FX and multiples headwinds could potentially offset operational strength in VEF’s Q2 report (due at 08:00 CET on 17 July).

The weekly navigator

From the past week we highlight: 1) Bure acquired a SEK450m stake in presentation software provider Mentimeter, expanding its unlisted portfolio; 2) we believe Kinnevik could lower its unlisted portfolio values by 4% based on market prices as of 27 June; 3) following recent negative news flow, Kinnevik is trading close to our bear-case fair value.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) Investor hosted a sell-side lunch with its new CEO, Christian Cederholm; 2) Patricia Industries’ strong performance over the past decade and its role in Investor’s investment case; and 3) Svolder’s Q3 2023/24 results showed that Swedish small-caps have started to return to form.

Meeting with the new CEO

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) Kinnevik held a Q2 pre-silent analyst call, and is trading ex-rights to the Tele2 cash distribution; 2) VNV Global hosted its CMD in Stockholm; and 3) Kinnevik-owned Oda/Mathem seeks to raise SEK1bn amid ongoing cost cuts.

Mölnlycke Wound Care set to continue strong trend

The weekly navigator

From this week, we highlight: 1) Lundbergs reported Q1 results, and we expect neutral NAV revisions; 2) however, its exclusion from the OMXS Benchmark Index could drive a discount-to-NAV expansion, and we reiterated our SELL; and 3) Investor’s CFO Helena Saxon increased her shareholding in the company. The weekly navigator will be off next week and return the following week.

The weekly navigator

From this week, we highlight: 1) Creaspac released its Q1 results, and has just a month left to find an acquisition target; 2) Investor bought 25m Ericsson B-shares, marking one of just a handful of purchases in its listed portfolio in recent years; and 3) Lundbergs is set to report Q1 results next week, as the Lundberg sphere continues to tighten its grip on Industrivärden.

The weekly navigator

Our takeaways from the past week: 1) VNV Global announced the sale of Gett and subsequently announced a buyback programme; 2) we met with VEF in New York, whose largest holding Creditas reported strong Q1 numbers; and 3) Bure reported Q1 NAV up 16% QOQ, outperforming the SIXRX.