reports
- Aurelien Sivignon
VusionGroup : Feedback roadshow : Edge Sense est le principal contribu...
>Principaux messages à retenir - Nous avons organisé un RS à Francfort avec le management de VusionGroup (CFO + IR). Dans un contexte de forte croissance aux USA sous l’impulsion de WMT qui est le premier retailer à déployer Edge Sense, ils entendent démontrer le potentiel commercial de cette nouvelle solution, en rupture avec les ESL classiques, mais aussi son impact positif sur les marges. Par rapport aux ESL traditionnelles, Edge Sense apporte beaucoup plus de fle...
- Oliver Metzger
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 10/01/2024
Like Astérix in the album of the same name, Michel Barnier has a cauldron to fill. Two measures to manage this have “leaked” in the press in the last few days: a reduction in the CIR research tax credit and an exceptional tax increase on large companies. We measured the sensitivity to these two measures of the 90 and 80 companies most concerned in our coverage universe. 20 companies have a CIR >5% of their EBIT and 22 companies would see their EPS fall by more than 5% due to the addit...
- Aurelien Sivignon
VusionGroup : Road show feedback: Edge Sense is the main contributor t...
>Main takeaways - We organised a road show in Frankfurt with the management of VusionGroup (CFO + IR). In a context of strong growth in the US under the impetus of Walmart which is the first retailer to deploy Edge Sense, they plan to demonstrate the commercial potential of this new solution, which is disruptive vs traditional ESLs, but also its positive impact on margins. Compared with traditional ESLs, Edge Sense provides retailers with much greater flexibility in ...
- Christophe Chaput
- Hela Zarrouk
Kaufman & Broad : The 9M results show strong resilience in profitabili...
>9M results close to forecasts: underlying operating profit € 53.5m vs € 52m estimated - For the first nine months of the year, Kaufman & Broad has published results that came in broadly close to our forecasts. They were characterised by: 1/ a decline in activity by 35.3% to € 701.2m (we had retained € 717.2m), showing a Q3 slightly up by 5.8% (increase related notably to commercial). 2/ Underlying operating profit at € 53.5m with an underlying operating margin of 7.6...
- Aurelien Sivignon
Xilam : More encouraging news flow, but too early to assess the impact...
>Negative H1 EBIT (as expected) but FCF remains in positive territory - With H1 revenues (excluding subsidies and other income) down 36% YoY to € 11.6m, Xilam reported negative EBIT at -€ 1.5m, in line with our expectations. The fixed cost structure began to shrink in H1, as the group looks to slash it by 20% over the full year. Thanks to tax income of € 0.4m and a lower financial result (debt reduction in H1 24), net profit came in at -€ 1m (vs. -€ 1.2m est.). The ...
- Oliver Metzger
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 01/10/2024
Comme Astérix dans l’album éponyme, Barnier a un chaudron à remplir. Deux mesures pour y parvenir ont « fuité » ces derniers jours dans la presse : rabotage du CIR (Crédit d’impôt Recherche) et hausse « exceptionnelle » de l’impôt des sociétés sur les grands groupes. Nous avons mesuré la sensibilité des 90 et 80 sociétés les plus concernées dans notre univers de couverture à ces deux mesures. 20 sociétés ont un CIR > 5% de leur EBIT et 22 sociétés verraient leurs BPA baisser de plus d...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Aston Martin Lagonda : Profit warning raising liquidity concerns
>Profit warning: -22% for our 2024 EBITDA forecast, FCF even more negative - AML issued a warning on its 2024 guidance before trading yesterday. The group pointed to disruption in its supply chain, but also lacklustre demand in China, as well efforts to smoothen out deliveries (less Q4 loaded). The group has downgraded all its guidance items (volumes, revenues, margins, FCF), which prompts us to reduce our 2024-2025 EBITDA forecasts by 22%/16%, respectively (putting ...
- Jeremy Garnier
Orège : No surprises in H1 2024 results. 2024: a year of transition
>H1 sales at € 1m / operating loss of -€ 3.7m - Yesterday Orège published H1 2024 result in line with our forecasts. Sales were € 1m (vs € 1.1m est.) up 14%. The operating loss was broadly stable vs last year at -€ 3.7m (operating costs up 5%) and attributable net profit was -€ 4.4m. The net debt on the balance sheet remained high at end-June at € 50.4m (almost entirely linked to advances on the shareholder current account on the part of Eren Industries). Since 30 Jun...
- Anis Zgaya
- Philippe Ourpatian
Solaria : 2024 MW trajectory to be clarified in our next roadshow
>Outperform rating maintained and target price adjusted to € 20.50 vs € 21.1 - Following the release of H1 2024 results, which on a reported basis came in slightly higher than we anticipated, but excluding capital gains on disposals slightly undershot our expectations, the group has not really made any announcements on the year end in terms of installed capacity, given the administrative environment in Spain which remains complicated, preferring to highlight its new ...
- Baptiste Lebacq
Petrofac : H1 2024 results still lacklustre, progress on the financial...
>Neutral rating, target price under review - We reiterate our Neutral recommendation on the stock, with a target price under review pending the terms of the future financial restructuring (conversion of debt into equity, capital increase, etc.). In our sample, there are still many other investment vehicles with far more solid fundamentals (and balance sheets): Technip-Energies (Outperform, target price $ 27) for exposure to the LNG theme, or TechnipFMC (Outperform, ta...
- Anis Zgaya
- Philippe Ourpatian
Solaria : Une trajectoire 2024 de MW à clarifier lors de notre prochai...
>Opinion Surperformance maintenus et OC ajusté à 20.50 € vs 21.1 € - A l’issue de la publication des résultats du S1 24, qui sont ressortis, en publié, un peu au-dessus de nos attentes, mais hors plus-value de cession, un peu en dessous de nos estimations, le groupe n’a pas vraiment communiqué sur son atterrissage de fin d’année en termes de capacité installée, compte tenu d’un environnement administratif en Espagne qui demeure compliqué, préférant mettre en lumière ...
- Oliver Metzger
Gerresheimer AG : Not only 2024, but also 2025
>Cut to ambitious 2024 outlook…. - Gerresheimer announced the reduction of its 2024 guidance to 3-4% organic growth now (from 5% to 10% before) due to a significantly slower-than-expected market recovery. The guidance is also affected by the current flooding at the Morganton vial plant in the United States caused by Hurricane Helene, which will halt production for several weeks. We acknowledge that our Q3 organic growth forecast of 3.3% would have implied a strong acc...
- Jeremy Garnier
AFYREN : Unsurprising H1 2024 results – pending continuous production ...
>H1 revenues of € 1.4m, down 30% / EBIT of -€ 3.6m - AFYREN’s H1 2024 results, reported yesterday evening, were broadly in line with our estimates. Revenues dropped by 30% to € 1.4m, with two constituent elements: i/ income from patent licences and ceded to AFYREN NEOXY since December 2018 for € 0.7m (stable) and ii/ service contracts with AFYREN NEOXY, also for € 0.7m (down as a result of the ramp-up of teams on site). Opex is stable (€ 5m), giving EBIT of -€ 3.6m. ...
- Anthony Dick
- Michael Foundoukidis
Aston Martin Lagonda : Un avertissement qui inquiète sur la liquidité
>Profit warning ; -22% sur notre EBITDA 2024, FCF encore plus négatif - Hier avant Bourse, AML a émis un avertissement sur sa guidance 2024. Le groupe cite des perturbations dans sa chaîne d’approvisionnement, mais aussi une faible demande en Chine, et enfin des efforts pour lisser ses livraisons plus uniformément selon les trimestres (moindre pondération sur le T4). Le groupe revoit à la baisse tous les éléments de sa guidance (volumes, CA, marges, FCF), nous amenan...
- Rafael Bonardell
- Baptiste Lebacq
Schoeller Bleckmann : Momentum in North America taking a toll
>Outperform rating and target price adjusted to € 65 - Following a company contact and based on a scenario of business recovery in the US that is taking longer to materialise than expected, we have lowered our earnings forecast by 25% for 2024-2026e on average. We maintain our Outperform rating with an adjusted target price of € 65 (vs € 70). Our target price is still based on an EV/EBITDA NTM multiple of 8.5x (average seen over the last 20 years, we are at the h...
- Rafael Bonardell
- Aurelien Sivignon
Xilam : Un newsflow plus encourageant même s’il est encore trop tôt po...
>EBIT S1 négatif (comme attendu) mais le FCF reste en territoire positif - Pour un CA S1 (hors subventions et autres produits) en baisse de 36% y-o-y à 11.6 M€, Xilam a publié un EBIT négatif à -1.5 M€, en ligne avec nos attentes. La structure de coûts fixes a commencé à diminuer au S1 avec pour objectif une baisse de 20% en année pleine. Grâce à un produit d’impôt de 0.4 M€ et un résultat financier en baisse (désendettement opérée au S1 24), le RN ressort à -1 M€ ...
- Andreas Riemann
Hugo Boss : Q3 due 5 November – Sales flat, EBIT down, lowering FY 202...
>Retail tough, wholesale ok, EBIT margin down >100bp - Hugo Boss will report results for Q3 2024 on 5 November. We forecast sales to remain flat at € 1bn. We therefore assume no major recovery after a difficult Q2. Retail should be down 1% as we don’t expect a material improvement in China, the UK or other markets. Wholesale (up 4%) should be growing similarly to what we saw in Q2, while growth in digital should remain in negative territory (down 2%). In terms regions...
- Baptiste Lebacq
Schoeller Bleckmann : Le momentum en Amérique du Nord pèse
>Opinion Surperformance maintenue et OC ajusté à 65 € - Post contact société et compte tenu d’un scénario de reprise de l’activité aux Etats-Unis qui met plus de temps à se matérialiser, nous revoyons en baisse nos attentes de résultats de 25% en moyenne sur 2024/26e. Nous réitérons notre recommandation Surperformance avec un OC ajusté à 65 € (vs 70 €). Notre OC reste basé sur un multiple de VE/EBITDA NTM de 8.5x (moyenne observée au cours des 20 dernières anné...
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