reports
- Charlie Campbell
- Edward Prest
LIBERUM: Housebuilders surveyor - Bananas politics & fruity economics
We update our view on housebuilders in this detailed and considered note, paying most attention to the resilience of house prices and explaining how planning could slow the 2024 recovery. Housebuilders’ shares rose 40% from lows as pessimists’ worst fears were thwarted. The easy money has been made but we expect continued outperformance as demand improves and returns recover. Investors should look past the biggest obstacles of inflation and planning. The big picture still sees inflation cooling ...
- Charlie Campbell
- Edward Prest
LIBERUM: Housebuilders - Encouragements from first reporters
Last week’s reports from three builders were encouraging. It is too early yet to have a definitive view of the crucial spring selling season, but news of better sales rates and the market strengthening through January are helpful. We cut our 2024 EPS estimates for Bellway and Redrow (by c13%): selling prices are holding up as we hoped, but volumes are hampered by a turn for the worse in planning and the nutrient neutrality saga. We still see good upside in the sector, but are somewhat more selec...
- Charlie Campbell
- Edward Prest
LIBERUM: Housebuilders - So far, so good(ish)
Our positive view on housebuilders’ shares at the start of the year was based on a view that house prices would prove relatively resilient, falling only 5%. This is holding well, so far, but we have had to look at volumes again as site numbers are not growing as we expected, due to planning delays and also housebuilder caution. This has led us to cut estimates today for Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey and Vistry. The flip side is that prices matter more for long term value, and the stock market has cor...
BERKELEY GROUP HDG.PLC. sees an upgrade to Slightly Positive due to a ...
The general evaluation of BERKELEY GROUP HDG.PLC. (GB), a company active in the Home Construction industry, has been upgraded by the independent financial analyst theScreener with the addition of a star. Its fundamental valuation now shows 4 out of 4 possible stars while its market behaviour can be considered as moderately risky. theScreener believes that the additional star(s) merits the upgrade of its general evaluation to Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date March 18, 2022, the closing ...
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