Catella (Buy, TP: SEK35.00) - Building back better

Catella’s Q4 results showed early but clear signs of benefits from the reversal of a nearly 3-year trend of declining European real-estate transaction volumes. In our view, the risk/reward remains attractive given a continued normalisation in volumes, with the stock trading at a 2026e EV/EBIT of 6x. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK35 (34).

Catella (Buy, TP: SEK34.00) - Still awaiting more transactions

We forecast the highest EBIT in six quarters for Q4, albeit still affected by depressed European real-estate transaction activity. We forecast the start of a positive consensus earnings revision cycle on a resurgence in fund performance and European transaction volumes, possibly during 2025. We reiterate our BUY and SEK34 target price.

Catella (Buy, TP: SEK34.00) - Sleeping beauty

Sleeping beauty All segments were again affected by still-low real estate transaction volumes. Nevertheless, with signs of an emerging sentiment shift in Corporate Finance, we believe Catella could be positioned to benefit from a potential rebound in deal activity in Q4 or Q1. The risk/reward remains attractive, in our view, with the stock now trading at a 2026e EV/EBIT of 7x. We reiterate our BUY, with a target price of SEK34.

Catella (Buy, TP: SEK34.00) - Recovery in focus

We expect continued subdued real estate transaction volumes in Q3. However, we maintain our positive outlook, as a rebound appears likely in the coming quarters, driven by continued rate cuts and a higher risk appetite. We reiterate our BUY and SEK34 target price.

Catella (Buy, TP: SEK34.00) - AUM up in Q2 despite slow market

Still-low real estate transaction volumes affected all divisions again in Q2. However, we still see upside as interest rates come down and transaction volumes rise. The risk/reward remains attractive in our opinion at a 2026e EV/EBIT of 6x, and we believe Catella will start beating expectations again once transaction volumes begin ticking up. We reiterate our BUY but have trimmed our target price to SEK34 (35).

Catella (Buy, TP: SEK35.00) - Still a favourable risk/reward

Although we expect still-low real estate transaction volumes in Q2, we continue to see an attractive risk/reward. Significant operating leverage should materialise once transaction volumes rebound and variable fees increase. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to SEK35 (34), as we are likely closer to a resurgence of variable fees.

Catella (Buy, TP: SEK34.00) - Patiently awaiting the recovery

Low real estate transaction volumes continued to weigh on all segments in Q1. We still see upside potential to consensus as interest rates come down and transaction volumes pick up, due to Catella’s significant operating leverage from variable fees. Risk/reward still looks good at 6x EV/EBIT for 2026e, but it may take a year to start beating market expectations again. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK34 (35).

Catella (Buy, TP: SEK35.00) - Upside potential on risk appetite

We forecast still-low real estate transaction volumes in Q1, but continue to see attractive risk/reward, with substantial operating leverage if/when real estate transaction volumes pick up again and variable fees start ticking in. We have lowered our 2025–2026e EPS by c5%, but we reiterate our BUY, with a raised target price of SEK35 (34), as we are likely closer to a resurgence of variable fees.

Catella (Buy, TP: SEK34.00) - Awaiting real estate recovery

Low real estate transaction volumes continued to weigh on all segments in Q4. We still expect a re-rating as interest rates come down and transaction volumes pick up. We see good risk/reward at 6x EV/EBIT for 2025e, but it may take another year to start beating expectations again. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK34 (37).

Catella (Buy, TP: SEK37.00) - Case intact despite headwinds

We forecast continued low real estate transaction volumes in Q4, keeping activity depressed in all business segments. However, we still like the case and believe recent weeks’ interest rate moves have increased the likelihood of a resurgence in transaction volumes. After increasing our 2024–2025e EPS by 5–8%, we reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK37 (35).

Catella (Buy, TP: SEK35.00) - Ready once the market turns

Low real estate transaction volumes continued to weigh on all segments in Q3. As interest rates peak and the real estate market eventually bottoms out, we expect a gradual re-rating of the stock. Trading at a 2024e EV/EBIT of 6x, we find Catella attractively valued given its long-term earnings prospects. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK35 (37) having reduced our 2024–2025e EBIT by 2–11%. Q3 review. PTP was -SEK9m, weighed down by low variable revenues in all segments. C...

Catella (Buy, TP: SEK37.00) - Solid foundations in property

We expect continued headwinds from low real estate transaction volumes in Q3, albeit with 11% AUM growth QOQ from incorporating Aquila Asset Management. We believe Corporate Finance revenues could be stronger than usual seasonality patterns would imply, but we would be surprised to see any divestments in Q3 of Catella’s discretionary real estate investments. We still like the long-term case, and with limited changes to our 2024–2025e EPS, we reiterate BUY and SEK37 target price.

Northern Lights

Catella (Buy, TP: SEK37.00) - Robust capital inflows

Capital inflows to the fund business held up well in Q2. Low real estate transaction volumes weighed on all segments. However, we still believe the market is pricing in overly high risk. As the real estate market bottoms out and risk perceptions ease, we expect the stock to see a gradual re-rating. Trading at a 2024e EV/EBIT of 5–6x, we see the stock as attractively valued. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK37 (39) on 3–7% lower 2024–2025e EPS.

Catella (Buy, TP: SEK39.00) - Set for a relatively slow quarter

We expect some headwinds for all three segments in Q2, with Corporate Finance set for the greatest weakness but AUM likely to still grow from capital inflows. We see some downside risk to consensus Q2e earnings and little reason to expect a positive surprise in the quarter. However, we still like the long-term case and thus reiterate BUY but lower our target price to SEK39 (40).

Northern Lights

Catella - Initiation of coverage - CAn’T touch this

Catella is a leading real estate asset manager and financial advisor in Europe, with a long history of solid growth in recurring revenues and significant economies of scale. We consider the discretionary real estate investments on its balance sheet undervalued by c10%. Also, we believe the conservative valuation of the fund AUM gives a cushion against falling real estate prices. Trading at a 2024e EV/EBIT of c5x, we find Catella undervalued – fundamentally and versus peers – and initiate coverag...