Added reassurance

Q2 better than feared

Energy Morning - 10 July 2025

Good opportunities in a pressured sector

Hitting the trough

Crude Quarterly Q2'25: In the absence of war, the oil market is well s...

Energy Morning - 17 June 2025

Energy Morning - 6 June 2025

Decent player activity in Q2 to date

Better across the board

Q1 slightly better than expected

Q1 in line - Shell contract termination a drag on estimates

Needs to lock in 2026

Offshore Drilling (DNB Markets) (, ) - (39 pages)

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) Investor bought shares in EQT for the first time since its 2019 IPO; 2) ahead of Kinnevik’s 12 May AGM, we highlight the return of Cristina Stenbeck as chair and the potential for share buybacks at a 40% discount to NAV; and 3) Lundbergs bought shares in its existing holdings for SEK512m.

Early Q2 players up 1% vs Q1

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1100.00) - Play it right in fencing

Despite intact 2025 EBITDA margin guidance, a soft Q1 and near-term uncertainties made us cut our 2025–2027e EPS by c10%. The step-up of focus on regulated markets supports the long-term case, although it comes with costs near-term. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK1,100 (1,440). We expect buybacks, expansion, new games, and growth improvements to strengthen the story later in 2025.

Big Q1 disappointment, but exaggerated reaction

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we lowered our target price for Latour to SEK300 (340) following a Q1 report with a slight NAV decline but strong organic order intake growth; 2) Investor bought 6.3m Ericsson shares, and we highlight its successful top-ups in the name; 3) insider purchases at Investor are in our view a signal to look beyond a relatively small discount to NAV; and 4) Flat Capital reported Q1 NAV down 1% QOQ.

Big sales miss, concerning growth numbers

Latour (Buy, TP: SEK300.00) - Orders the key positive

Q1 saw solid acquisition-driven sales growth in Industrial Operations but with currency movements putting pressure on profitability; organic order intake growth was 10% YOY, supporting the near-term outlook, and the earnings call left us with a positive impression on the demand situation despite the ongoing uncertainty. We find Latour well placed to pass on the cost of potential tariffs to customers and see margin upside potential from the improved cost base once markets improve. We reiterate ou...