Q1 was slightly below expectations and the CMD targets were broadly in line with our forecasts and consensus. We have raised our target price to NOK37 (34) on higher estimates but have downgraded to HOLD (BUY), as we find the valuation fair following the recent strong share price performance.
Despite intact 2025 EBITDA margin guidance, a soft Q1 and near-term uncertainties made us cut our 2025–2027e EPS by c10%. The step-up of focus on regulated markets supports the long-term case, although it comes with costs near-term. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK1,100 (1,440). We expect buybacks, expansion, new games, and growth improvements to strengthen the story later in 2025.
Q1 EBIT and EPS saw a healthy beat against our estimates and consensus, driven by a strong sales mix and internal efficiency gains. Unsold, completed apartments fell by 30% YOY, to their lowest level since Q3 2023. We have raised our 2025e EBIT, but do not see this as evidence of a broader recovery in Finnish residential markets. Our 2025e EBIT remains just above the guidance mid-point, with EPS hovering just below zero. We reiterate our SELL, but have raised our target price to EUR2 (1.75).
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