Early Q2 players up 1% vs Q1

Sats (Hold, TP: NOK37.00) - Time for a breather

Q1 was slightly below expectations and the CMD targets were broadly in line with our forecasts and consensus. We have raised our target price to NOK37 (34) on higher estimates but have downgraded to HOLD (BUY), as we find the valuation fair following the recent strong share price performance.

Sweden needed for a homerun

EBIT 4% below, strong growth expected

EBIT 4% below on 4% higher cost. Members strong, +2% vs cons. Targets EPS of over NOK 3

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1100.00) - Play it right in fencing

Despite intact 2025 EBITDA margin guidance, a soft Q1 and near-term uncertainties made us cut our 2025–2027e EPS by c10%. The step-up of focus on regulated markets supports the long-term case, although it comes with costs near-term. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK1,100 (1,440). We expect buybacks, expansion, new games, and growth improvements to strengthen the story later in 2025.

Big Q1 disappointment, but exaggerated reaction

Big sales miss, concerning growth numbers

YIT (Sell, TP: EUR2.00) - 2025 guidance unchanged, we see EPS close to...

Q1 EBIT and EPS saw a healthy beat against our estimates and consensus, driven by a strong sales mix and internal efficiency gains. Unsold, completed apartments fell by 30% YOY, to their lowest level since Q3 2023. We have raised our 2025e EBIT, but do not see this as evidence of a broader recovery in Finnish residential markets. Our 2025e EBIT remains just above the guidance mid-point, with EPS hovering just below zero. We reiterate our SELL, but have raised our target price to EUR2 (1.75).

Burning calories, stacking profits

Heads-up for report 30 April

Boliden (Buy, TP: SEK480.00) - Earnings growth is on

Although Q1 earnings for the smelters and mines were slightly below our forecasts, we believe this was offset by constructive outlook comments for the rest of 2025 and explicit guidance that metal grades for the Kevitsa and Aitik mines should be picking up in 2026. We have cut our 2026–2027e EBITDA by 5%–4%, mainly due to slightly changed assumptions for FX and weaker prices and terms. We believe Boliden continues to offer impressive earnings growth and attractive multiples beyond the current ye...

Boliden (Buy, TP: SEK460.00) - ‘Self-help’ and diversification

Reflecting the deterioration in the macro outlook and our lower metal price assumptions, we have cut our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 12–13%. However, we still expect healthy earnings, seeing relatively limited downside risk thanks to unique diversification across base and precious metals, and steady earnings growth in our forecast horizon from investments, as well as better metal grades at the Aitik mine from late this year. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK460 (500).

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1440.00) - Buying opportunity on our data

According to our tracker, Evolution’s daily average players grew by 10% QOQ in Q1, compared with our quarterly average Live revenue growth of 3% for 2025e. While still early, Q2 has started very strongly, with 12% QOQ player growth so far. In conclusion, our data signals strong underlying demand for Evolution’s products and a vital recovery after the H2 headwinds.

Mixed upside potential, despite market recovery expectations

Pent-up demand and falling interest rates remain the backbone for newbuild recovery expectations. However, as the recovery has not yet started, property developers screen as the most attractive long-term, but visibility remains mixed. Diversified construction companies are more attractive on near-term P/Es, although many seem to be fully valued on solid share-price performance over the past six months. We maintain a neutral sector view; NCC and Skanska are our top picks.

Awaiting acceleration

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1440.00) - A step forward

With our unchanged estimates, the well-flagged near-term headwinds and strong player trends confirmed by our tracker, we reiterate our BUY and SEK1,440 target price ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:30 CET on 30 April). We forecast revenue up 8% YOY and EBITDA of EUR367m (Bloomberg consensus EUR369m). Short-term potential catalysts include the UKGC review conclusions and any signs of revenue growth resilience.

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK32.00) - Unit sales in line, EPS still tra...

Today’s Q1 trading update showed a unit sales recovery broadly in line with our forecast. However, while starts were above our forecast, our 2025e is unchanged at 700 units. Despite KPIs seemingly recovering as expected, we still see downside risk for the stock given the long lead time to profit and dividends and as the valuation looks high relative to peers. Ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:00 CET on 21 May), we forecast marginally negative Q1 EPS on few deliveries. We reiterate our SELL and ...

Sales as expected, deliveries above

YIT (Sell, TP: EUR1.75) - No KPI or EBIT recovery in Q1e

The Finnish residential and commercial real estate markets continue to show no sign of recovery in Q1. While we expect the CEE division to recover, given its minor size, we still forecast group EBIT of zero for Q1. We will look for commentary on the housing shortage and an expected recovery on lower interest rates – a recurring topic the past for three years. We find consensus too bullish and reiterate our SELL and EUR1.75 target price.

Stars and stripes