Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1500.00) - A return to fundamentals

We have cut our 2025e EPS by 3% (Asia revenue growth from 13% to 10% YOY) and our target price to SEK1,500 (1,570), but reiterate our BUY. We find underlying fundamentals still-healthy and near-term negatives more than reflected in the stock. After a strong end to Q4 (albeit early days), our data implies a healthy start to 2025 (daily average players +10% QOQ). Our Q4e EBITDA is EUR364m (68.2% margin, -30bp QOQ).

YIT (Sell, TP: EUR2.00) - Set for zero Q4 EPS

We forecast Q4 EPS to be close to zero, in line with Vara consensus; EPS should improve in 2025–2026e but remain low nominally. For the Q4 webcast, we expect the focus to be on capital releases and cost efficiency programmes. We reiterate our SELL and EUR2 target price, finding a better risk/reward elsewhere.

December players up 11% m-o-m

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK30.00) - KPI recovery, but profits must wa...

In its Q4 trading update, unit sales increased by 39% YOY to 122 (net) and starts by 129% YOY to 298, broadly in line with our forecasts. Although new housing sales will likely recover from the trough on lower interest rates, we expect Selvaag Bolig’s earnings recovery to take longer, and estimate Q4 EBIT down by 16% YOY to NOK108m (results due at 07:00 CET on 12 February). We reiterate our SELL and NOK30 target price.

Construction starts the highlight

First takes on UKGC regulatory review

Keeping the pace

Sats (Buy, TP: NOK29.00) - Fit for growth in Q4e

We are positive ahead of SATS’s Q4 report, expecting results slightly above consensus, primarily driven by lower costs. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK29 (26) on peer group multiple expansion and slightly positive estimate revisions.

Boliden (Buy, TP: SEK460.00) - Big M&A move, value story intact

We calculate that Boliden’s move to acquire Zinkgruvan and Neves Corvo will have close to 20% impact on our EBITDA24e. Still, we argue that the overall asset quality in the asset portfolio is being diluted at the same time as we expect the number of shares to increase by c8%, leading to negative EPS effect. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK460 (480), reflecting a small, but negative, M&A effect.

Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1570.00) - Wrapping player growth for Xmas

Our proprietary data tracker shows a very strong start to December (up 10% MOM), with growth in all segments. Accelerating player activity in the holiday season could result in QOQ player growth for Q4 (versus -9% in Q3 and -4% QTD in Q4). The situation in Georgia (union strike) has calmed down for Evolution, and healthy US market data bodes well for more near-term sales growth improvements.

November players ~flat m-o-m

YIT (Sell, TP: EUR2.00) - New ambitions, but with a condition

At its CMD, the company presented new financial and non-financial targets through 2029. However, these depend on a reversion in the Finnish residential market to an historical average of c16,000 new housing starts annually. Given YIT’s track record of not achieving its financial targets, we have made no forecast changes. We reiterate our SELL and EUR2 target price, finding a better risk/reward elsewhere.

It's all about sales momentum from here

October player activity stabilising

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK30.00) - Q3 miss, Urban Property covenants

While Q3 was an expected low season, with few deliveries, EPS was below our forecast on higher costs. The POC EBIT margin also fell more than we estimated, but we expect this to improve in the coming quarters with more starts. The company said it has renegotiated the terms with Urban Property, and the NIBD/EBITDA covenant will now use the POC (NGAAP) figures (previously volatile IFRS figures), thereby removing the potential 2025 covenant breach. However, we continue to find consensus recovery ex...

Running interest payments to UP from 2025e

Still the fittest in the room

Sats (Buy, TP: NOK26.00) - Working out nicely

The Q3 results were broadly in line with consensus, and SATS’ outlook was little changed. We reiterate our BUY as we still find the stock attractively valued, trading at a 2025 P/E of 11x on our estimates, and have raised our target price to NOK26 (25) on our slightly higher forecasts and peer group multiples. A reinstated dividend policy from H2 2025 (>50% of EPS), and scope for buybacks up to NOK500m are potential share-price catalysts.

Sats (Buy, TP: NOK25.00) - Q3 earnings in line with consensus

We consider this a mixed report for SATS, including adj. EBITDA in line with consensus, but a soft mix, with all countries except Denmark just below expectations, and a group membership base 5k below consensus. We expect only minor revisions to consensus following the report.

EBIT as expected

Sales 1% better, EBIT 4% better. Denmark explains the beat.CF soft on timing of rent payment. Outlook reiterated.