Suzano forms tissue JV with Kimberly

Apr: Pulp shipments +2% y-o-y

Tokmanni Group Corporation: 1 director

A director at Tokmanni Group Corporation bought 91,700 shares at 10.917EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ...

Essity Aktiebolag (publ): 1 director

A director at Essity Aktiebolag (publ) maiden bought 75,000 shares at 274.160SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the la...

Mar: Pulp shipments +7% y-o-y

Not flashy, but built to last

Q1 weaker on lower volumes

Adj. EBIT 15% below on lower volumes due to mild winter. Cons estm down 4-5%, stock down ~3%

Waiting for a volume recovery

Boliden (Buy, TP: SEK480.00) - Earnings growth is on

Although Q1 earnings for the smelters and mines were slightly below our forecasts, we believe this was offset by constructive outlook comments for the rest of 2025 and explicit guidance that metal grades for the Kevitsa and Aitik mines should be picking up in 2026. We have cut our 2026–2027e EBITDA by 5%–4%, mainly due to slightly changed assumptions for FX and weaker prices and terms. We believe Boliden continues to offer impressive earnings growth and attractive multiples beyond the current ye...

Clean EBITA -2% below, Q2 likely better

Clean EBITA SEK 4.7bn vs. cons SEK 4.87bn, -2% below. Margin 13.5% vs. cons' 13.5% (13.1% in Q4) — target is >15%

Boliden (Buy, TP: SEK460.00) - ‘Self-help’ and diversification

Reflecting the deterioration in the macro outlook and our lower metal price assumptions, we have cut our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 12–13%. However, we still expect healthy earnings, seeing relatively limited downside risk thanks to unique diversification across base and precious metals, and steady earnings growth in our forecast horizon from investments, as well as better metal grades at the Aitik mine from late this year. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK460 (500).

Tokmanni (Buy, TP: EUR13.50) - Aisle of opportunity

We have upgraded Tokmanni to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to EUR13.5 (13.0). We believe the recent market reaction overly penalised Tokmanni, with a PEG of c0.6x offering a good entry point in one of the largest variety discounters in the Nordics. Although overall economic uncertainty has risen, we believe Tokmanni’s low exposure to cyclical demand supports sustained growth and continue to see higher margins through operational scaling. For Q1e, we are close to consensus and expect 202...

Two negatives and one positive

Q1 preview

Elmera Group (Sell, TP: NOK24.00) - Fixed prices, variable risks

We remain lukewarm ahead of the Q1 report, expecting below-consensus results on lower volumes due to the warm weather. We continue to question the sustainability of the business model given the still-high contribution from variable contracts and potential negative impact from the introduction of a fixed-price regime in Norway. We reiterate our SELL and NOK24 target price, despite slight negative estimate revisions.

Feb: Pulp shipments +0.3% y-o-y

Tokmanni (Hold, TP: EUR13.00) - Fewer dollars on the bottom line

While LFL sales and traffic improved sequentially in Q4, we believe this was driven by extensive campaigns and uptake in consumables, with lower gross margins questioning the competitiveness of Tokmanni’s accretive margin range, particularly in Sweden. In our view, the broad profit guidance indicates a cautious outlook and low visibility. We have reduced our target price to EUR13 (14), having cut our 2025–2026e clean EPS by c6.5% on average, mostly on lower DollarStore gross margin projections, ...

Boliden (Buy, TP: SEK500.00) - A new chapter for Garpenberg

At the upcoming CMD, we expect several significant project updates and important company news including Boliden’s plan to potentially expand its profitable Garpenberg mine. While it is still early days, we believe a potential Garpenberg expansion could involve cSEK10bn in investments, increasing the ore design capacity of 3.5Mt to 6Mt, implying an estimated attractive RoCE of 16% (at current FX and prices). We reiterate our BUY, but have raised our target price to SEK500 (490), reflecting our ex...

Tokmanni (Hold, TP: EUR14.00) - Neutral view intact

We expect a slightly positive Q4 (our sales estimate is slightly below consensus, but our clean EBIT is c3.5% above), as the company’s performance should reflect modestly better trading conditions and margin expansion. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to EUR14 (12.5), following our more de-risked view of its 2025–2026e profit outlook, supported by the recently announced SPAR International licence agreement.

January: Pulp shipments +6.2% y-o-y