Targets in reach, but tissue looks tough

Renewable Weekly – 11 November 2024

Essity Aktiebolag (publ): 1 director

A director at Essity Aktiebolag (publ) bought 700,000 shares at 294.783SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 77/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ...

Elmera Group (Sell, TP: NOK24.00) - Earnings beat, but valuation still...

Given the better-than-expected Q3 results, low power prices limiting switching activity, and high margins on variable contracts for the Consumer business, Elmera looks set to meet its 2025 guidance. We have raised our target price to NOK24 (21) on positive estimate revisions, but with the valuation still looking rich, reiterate our SELL.

More lightning than buzz

Elmera Group (Sell, TP: NOK21.00) - Q3 above, guidance maintained

We consider this a positive report for Elmera Group, including figures above consensus, higher-than-expected deliveries, and a maintained 2024-2025 guidance. We expect c5% positive revisions to consensus 2024e EBIT on the report and believe a positive share price reaction is warranted.

Massive beat on EBIT and CF

Clean EBIT 40% better on hihger sales /GM. "Consumer" strong (price hikes / margins). Underlying CF strong

September: Pulp shipments -10% y-o-y

Renewable Weekly – 1 November 2024

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.

Tokmanni (Hold, TP: EUR11.00) - Neutral ahead of Q3

We are close to consensus Q3 clean EBIT, reflecting lower YOY profitability for Tokmanni Finland and soft demand for the group’s key categories. We continue to see downside risk to its 2024 guidance and struggle to get excited about Tokmanni after a series of quarters with negative LFL traffic KPIs (including DollarStore) and underperformance versus the market. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to EUR11 (12), after small estimate cuts.

Renewable Weekly – 25 October 2024

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.

Standing firm against headwinds

Clean EBITA 1% above

Clean EBITA SEK 5.1bn vs. cons SEK 5.06bn — 1% above. Margin 14.1% (vs. 14.7% in Q2) — target is >15%. Pulp prices moving down, while tissue has seen price hikes.

Boliden (Buy, TP: SEK480.00) - Earnings growth is on

Due to favourable operations and unusually high gold production, underlying Q3 earnings were above our expectations. Mainly due to the Q3 earnings beat, we have increased our underlying EBITDA by c6%, while we maintain our 2025–2026e EBITDA which is considerably above consensus. We continue to like the favourable exposure to copper and gold and the earnings growth from self-help. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK480 (470).

Renewable Weekly – 17 October 2024

This week, we summarise our Q3 previews for the sector.

Renewable Weekly – 8 Oct 2024

This week, we highlight the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate updated LCOE estimates.

Boliden (Buy, TP: SEK470.00) - The (long-term) trend is your friend

We have increased our 2024–2025e EBITDA by c2–7% on higher metal price assumptions, and despite the recent strong share-price performance, find the low valuation multiples highly appealing. We expect a material rise in Q3 earnings due to more favourable metal prices and better mining operations than in preceding quarters. In addition to the favourable position in copper and gold mining, we remain intrigued by company-specific earnings drivers for 2024–2027. We reiterate our BUY and have raised o...

Wood is up and Pulp is down

Q3 preview

August: Pulp shipments -10% y-o-y