Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut buoyed sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom respectively amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Ja...
JDL’s 3Q25 core PAT of Rmb2.02b (-21.5% yoy due to new capacity gestation costs) was broadly in line with our expectation. Revenue rose 24.1% yoy on upbeat growth across all customer segments. We expect JDL to regain strong earnings growth in the seasonally strong 4Q25. Management is upbeat on JDL’s 2026 earnings outlook. JDL currently trades at a cheap 2025/26F core PE of 10.4x/9.4x (or 3.8x/3.4x if excluding net cash). Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$22.00.
Greater China Economics | Money Supply M1 growth fell to 6.2% yoy in October, short of expectations, while M2 growth eased to 8.2% yoy. New bank loans dropped sharply to Rmb0.22t, and new TSF fell to Rmb0.81t, both below forecasts. Outstanding TSF and bank loan growth moderated to 8.5% (-0.2ppt mom) and 6.5% yoy (-0.1ppt mom) respectively, with the decline led by household loans. The numbers are not encouraging. Sector Update | Automobile China’s PV retail sales basically remained flat yoy in O...
Top Stories Economics | Money Supply M1 growth fell to 6.2% yoy in October, short of expectations, while M2 growth eased to 8.2% yoy. New bank loans dropped sharply to Rmb0.22t, and new TSF fell to Rmb0.81t, both below forecasts. Outstanding TSF and bank loan growth moderated to 8.5% (-0.2ppt mom) and 6.5% yoy (-0.1ppt mom) respectively, with the decline led by household loans. The numbers are not encouraging. Sector Update | Automobile China’s PV retail sales basically remained flat yoy in Oc...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&C an...
3Q25 core after-tax profit is projected at Rmb1.9b-2.0b, a 22-26% yoy dip due to front-loaded costs from capacity expansion, though full-year guidance of mid-single-digit growth remains. 3Q25 revenue is expected to rise 20% yoy, helped by fresh contributions from its F&B delivery services. The acquisition of JD.com’s intra-city delivery units should enhance last-mile synergies. With a strong net cash position and attractive valuation (10.5x 2025F PE), JDL remains our top pick in China’s logistic...
Top Stories Economics | Trade China’s trade rebounded strongly in September, with exports (8.3%, +3.9ppt) and imports (7.4%, +6.1ppt) beating expectations. This month marked the strongest monthly growth for imports in 2025, thanks to the trade surplus narrowing to US$90.4b. Demand from non-US markets held firm while domestic recovery gained traction. Imports for integrated circuits, agricultural products and key commodities improved. On the export front, hi-tech and mechanical & electrical prod...
Greater China Economics | Trade China’s trade rebounded strongly in September, with exports (8.3%, +3.9ppt) and imports (7.4%, +6.1ppt) beating expectations. This month marked the strongest monthly growth for imports in 2025, thanks to the trade surplus narrowing to US$90.4b. Demand from non-US markets held firm while domestic recovery gained traction. Imports for integrated circuits, agricultural products and key commodities improved. On the export front, hi-tech and mechanical & electrical...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls The HSI and MSCI China gained 7.1%/8.2% mom in September on Fed easing and optimism over advancements in semiconductors and AI. We remain positive in the medium term but expect near-term consolidation after the recent strong gains. The best performer of the month was Alibaba (+53.0% mom). With some rotations expected in non-tech stocks, our October calls are: add Galaxy, Jacobson, Ping An, Trip.com and WuXi Bio to BUY; SELL Meituan. ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: Add Anta, BYDE and CSCEC to our BUY list, Li Auto and OOIL to our SELL list. Take profit on Innovent, JD Logistics, Lenovo, Sino Biopharm, Tencent and TME. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In August: Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, ARCI, BBCA, BBNI, BRMS, MTEL, HRUM and NCKL. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Wake Me Up When September Ends: Our Aug 25 Alpha Picks underperformed marginally. Sep 25 picks: Alpha IVF, Hume ...
JDL’s 1H25 core net profit of Rmb2.90b (+5.9% yoy), at 39.0% of our full-year forecast, is in line, as 2H25 is seasonally stronger. 2Q25 revenue rose 16.6% yoy, driven by broadbased growth across all customer segments, and led by strong demand from JD.com. Management maintained maintained 2025 core earnings growth guidance at a mid-single digit, while noting that 3Q25 may post a slight drop yoy due to frontloaded costs for growth initiatives and 3Q24’s high base. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$2...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile China’s PEV yoy sales growth turned negative (at -0.5%) during the week. BYD and Li Auto posted a yoy sales decline. We expect EV sales to recover from September with the launch of new models and interest subsidies for auto loans. Lithium carbonate prices rebounded to >Rmb80,000/tonne due to better supply discipline. We upgrade Ganfeng Lithium from HOLD to BUY thanks to lithium price recovery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results ...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: Yoy growth of China’s PEV sales turns negative; lithium price recovers. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$18.95/Target: HK$42.00) 2Q25: Core earnings surge 93% yoy, in line; raise target price to HK$42.00. Maintain BUY. Hysan Development (14 HK/BUY/HK$15.67/Target: HK$17.84) ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls: Add JBM Healthcare and Lenovo to our BUY list. Take profit on CATL, Han’s Laser, KE Holdings and Longfor. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In July: Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, AKRA, ARCI, BBNI, KLBF, MTEL, and MYOR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Some Opportunities Amid A “Summer Lull”: Our July 25 Alpha Picks outperformed. Aug 25 picks: Coraza, Eco World, Gamuda, Hume Cement, IJM, Inari, RHB and Zetrix. SINGAPORE ...
In July, the HSI and MSCI China index extended their growths, rising 2.9% mom and 4.5% mom respectively to reach their peak on 24 July before pulling pack in the latest week, as investors tend to take profit after the Politburo announcement. With another 90-day tariff delay from the US, we maintain a positive outlook for leading domestic stocks in healthcare and IT. New additions to our BUY list are JBM Healthcare and Lenovo. We take profit on CATL, Han’s Laser, KE Holdings and Longfor.
Recent logistics sector data remains healthy, with Jun 25 LPI of 50.8 (+0.2 mom) indicating a slight expansion in logistics activities. May 25 ELI stood at 111.6, the highest level ytd, partly due to an early start of the 618 sales period this year. We expect a solid earnings performance for China’s logistics sector in 2Q25, underpinned by the healthy industry data. Maintain OVERWEIGHT, with JDL as our top pick, though we are largely neutral towards JDL’s recent venture into the food delivery bu...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Calls: Add CATL, KE Holdings, Longfor, Midea Group, Tencent and TME to our BUY list. Take profit on Prudential. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances In June: Our new Alpha Picks are ANTM, BBCA, ERAA, ICBP, MYOR, MIKA, AMRT and TLKM. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Positioning For Positive US Trade Deals: Our Jun 25 Alpha Picks outperform. Jul 25 picks: Coraza, Duopharma, Eco World, Gamuda, Hume Cement, IJM, Inari and MYEG. SINGAP...
June’s HSI and MSCI China Index rose 3.4% mom and 4.0% mom respectively, despite the pullback due to the Middle East tensions. July may see increased volatility as the US looks to bring the tariff negotiations to a close. At this juncture, we continue to favour domestic policy beneficiaries and sector leaders. New additions to our BUY list are CATL, KE Holdings, Longfor, Midea Group, Tencent and Tencent Music Entertainment. We take profit on Prudential.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Calls Add CATL, KE Holdings, Longfor, Midea Group, Tencent and TME to our BUY list. Take profit on Prudential. Sector Online Games Upcoming new game releases to capitalise on the summer holiday season. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances In June Our new alpha picks are ANTM, BBCA, ERAA, ICBP, MYOR, MIKA...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: June Conviction Calls: Add Prudential and Sino Biopharm to our BUY list. Take profit on SHKP and Trip.com. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances In May: Good performances from most with the exception of GOTO and BUKA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Raising Emphasis On Infrastructure Plays: Our May 25 Alpha Picks outperformed with resounding success. June 25 picks: Duopharma, Eco World, Gamuda, Hume Cement, IJM, MYEG, Northeast Group. SINGAPORE S...
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