Byggfakta Group (Hold, TP: SEK52.00) - Bid raised to SEK52/share

Last night, Giant BidCo raised its take-private offer – to SEK52/share (up 13% from the initial SEK46/share) – in line with our expectation. We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) and cut our target price to SEK52 (57), as we see a low likelihood of a further raised bid given: 1) the support for the new bid from remaining institutional IPO investors; 2) other potential suitors likely would have already shown interest; and 3) it represents a compromise between Giant BidCo and the institutions that seem...

Byggfakta Group (Buy, TP: SEK57.00) - We still expect a raised bid

The Q4 results showed no signs of maximising the short-term financial profile, given EBITDA margin headwinds and another acquisition. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK57 (55) as we see potential for a raised take-private bid as: 1) SEK46/share bid, with backing from 68.6% of the shares, is still a ~25% discount to our DCF and peers’ multiples valuations; 2) media reports on investor concerns regarding the bid price and potentially amassing 10%+ of shares needed to bloc...

Byggfakta Group (Buy, TP: SEK55.00) - Pump it up

Having digested Giant BidCo’s SEK46/share offer of 5 January to take Byggfakta Group private, we see a reasonable scenario for a raised bid as: 1) SEK46/share represents a ~20% discount to our DCF and peer multiples; 2) backers in the 2021 IPO have voiced concern in the media, and we believe could amass the 10%+ of shares needed to block the bid; and 3) we would not rule out other potential suitors. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK55 (48), applying a fair value-based ...

Byggfakta Group (Buy, TP: SEK48.00) - Q3 acceleration to continue for ...

In our view, the Q4e results will provide the building blocks needed for a re-rating, with: 1) organic ARR and net sales growth acceleration; 2) 15% YOY adj. EBITA growth; and 3) FCF conversion of 80%. We still believe the main reason for Byggfakta’s depressed share price is the first four letters in its name, but leading construction indicators are showing green shoots that this could be reassessed, and we see an attractive valuation at a 2024e P/E adjusted for PPA of 12x and 0.8x P/B. We reite...

Byggfakta Group (Buy, TP: SEK47.00) - Re-establishing growth credentia...

Byggfakta’s Q3 results contained the building blocks we wanted: 1) organic ARR and net sales growth acceleration; 2) a double-digit consensus adj. EBITDA beat; and 3) strong cash flow. We still believe the main reason Byggfakta’s share price continues to edge lower is the first four letters in its name, and we see an attractive valuation at a 2023e P/E adjusted for M&A amortisation of 13x and 0.8x P/B. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK47 (46), having increased our 2023...

Byggfakta Group (Buy, TP: SEK46.00) - Q3e the organic growth trough

We believe the main reason Byggfakta’s share price has continued to edge lower is the first four letters of its name. That said, Q3e should mark the sixth straight quarter in which it faces a tough construction backdrop, and we expect organic growth to not only be resilient YOY, but actually see a long-awaited acceleration, combined with stable profitability and strong cash flow. We still view the valuation as attractive at a 2023e P/E adjusted for M&A amortisation of 12x and a 0.7x P/B. We reit...

Swedish Small-caps:Selected names on our radar Autumn 2023

Swedish Small-caps:Selected names on our radar Autumn 2023

Northern Lights

Byggfakta Group (Buy, TP: SEK47.00) - Closer to a trough in growth

Despite concerns about pullbacks in construction customer budgets, high gearing, and low liquidity in the stock, Bloomberg consensus adj. EBITDA forecasts have dropped only ~8% since its IPO. Q2 was the fifth consecutive quarter with Byggfakta defying weaker end-market concerns. We still see an undemanding valuation at a 2023e P/E adjusted for M&A amortisation of 14x and a 0.9x P/B ratio, especially as we should near a trough in Byggfakta’s mid-single digit organic growth, while its October CMD ...

Northern Lights

Byggfakta Group (Buy, TP: SEK50.00) - Moving closer to a trough

Byggfakta’s Q2 results should not shift the investor debate regarding near-term scepticism related to concerns about a pullback in construction customer budgets, high gearing, and low liquidity in the stock. However, we still see an undemanding valuation at a 2023e P/E adjusted for M&A amortisation of 14x based on Byggfakta’s: 1) through-the-cycle organic growth, as Q2 marks the fifth straight quarter with weak construction markets; 2) improving net retention from lowered churn; 3) stabilising m...

Byggfakta Group (Buy, TP: SEK50.00) - Undemanding valuation

We find Byggfakta’s Q1 results encouraging and have only tweaked our 2023–2024e adj. EBITA. We expect continued near-term scepticism related to concerns about a pullback in construction customer budgets, high gearing, and low liquidity in the shares. However, we still see an attractive valuation at a 2023e adj. P/E for M&A amortisations of 15x based on Byggfakta’s: 1) through-the-cycle organic growth; 2) improving net retention from lowered churn; 3) stabilising margins; and 4) strong FCF charac...

Byggfakta Group (Buy, TP: SEK50.00) - Still-fertile demand backdrop

In its seventh quarter as a listed entity, we expect Byggfakta’s Q1 results to highlight continued strength in the business model despite softer construction markets, with: 1) through-the-cycle organic growth; 2) improving net retention from lowered churn; 3) stabilising margins; and 4) strong FCF characteristics. We still believe the stock could be range-bound and a ‘show-me’ story, with investors looking for proof-points of its defensive elements, M&A integration trajectory, and ability to de-...

Northern Lights

Byggfakta Group (Buy, TP: SEK50.00) - Compelling value for resilience

We continue to see fairly low estimate risks for 2023 and believe investors will increasingly appreciate Byggfakta’s through-the-cycle growth and FCF characteristics over the coming quarters. Having trimmed our 2023e adj. EBITDA by only 2%, we have upgraded to BUY (HOLD), reiterating our SEK50 target price, but we still expect the stock to be a ‘show-me’ story short-term.

Byggfakta Group (Hold, TP: SEK50.00) - ‘Show-me’ story after recent ga...

Given the 85%+ share price rally since end-Q3, we have downgraded Byggfakta to HOLD (BUY) and cut our target price to SEK50 (59). Our estimates are now in line with Bloomberg consensus and we see few catalysts for 2023e as 1) consensus is positive with limited upside potential to estimates; 2) high gearing leaves little room to hit its ambitious medium-term financial targets through M&A; and 3) we see fairly low estimate risks for 2023e but expect the stock to be a ‘show-me’ story short-term.

Northern Lights

Byggfakta Group (Buy, TP: SEK59.00) - Defies construction concerns

Byggfakta’s first year of trading has met a lukewarm reception as the share price has dropped 60% since the IPO. Unlike what appears to be priced in, with 55%-points of the decline in our view driven by multiples contraction, we believe Byggfakta offers trough-cycle organic growth, high profitability with attractive FCF, and stability, despite its high construction exposure. This was demonstrated in the Q3 report. Trading at a 2023e P/E of 12x (adjusted for amortisation), to which we see fairly ...

Northern Lights

Byggfakta Group (Buy, TP: SEK59.00) - Sector risk looks overblown

Byggfakta’s share price has dropped 67% since its IPO, driving a multiples contraction to a 2022e P/E of 11x (adjusted for amortisations). We believe the perceived cyclical risk from its concentrated construction industry exposure is overblown as it saw organic growth during: 1) the Swedish real estate crash in the 1990s, 2) the 2008–2009 financial crisis, and 3) the pandemic. We see limited risks to our estimates and reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK59 (61).