reports
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Anders Idborg
- Karl Bokvist
- Lara Mohtadi
VOLV B VOLVO AB CLASS B
WRT1V WARTSILA OYJ ABP
ABB ABB LTD.
SAND SANDVIK AB
TREL B TRELLEBORG AB CLASS B
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
SKF B SKF AB CLASS B
HPOL B HEXPOL AB CLASS B
ALFA ALFA LAVAL AB
MTRS B MUNTERS GROUP
HEXA B HEXAGON AB
EPI A EPIROC AB
NIBE B NIBE INDUSTRIER AB
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB
ALIV SDB AUTOLIV INC.
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Anders Idborg
- Karl Bokvist
- Lara Mohtadi
VOLV B VOLVO AB CLASS B
WRT1V WARTSILA OYJ ABP
ABB ABB LTD.
SAND SANDVIK AB
TREL B TRELLEBORG AB CLASS B
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
SKF B SKF AB CLASS B
HPOL B HEXPOL AB CLASS B
ALFA ALFA LAVAL AB
MTRS B MUNTERS GROUP
HEXA B HEXAGON AB
EPI A EPIROC AB
NIBE B NIBE INDUSTRIER AB
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB
ALIV SDB AUTOLIV INC.
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Anders Idborg
- Karl Bokvist
- Mattias Holmberg
Epiroc (Hold, TP: SEK220.00) - No earnings growth in 2025e
We have downgraded Epiroc to HOLD (BUY). We still believe in stronger end markets for the Tools & Attachment division in H2, and for gradual underlying earnings improvement, but lack confidence it will improve stock sentiment in a macro-focused environment. We expect no earnings growth YOY in 2025e, after lowering our 2025–2027e adj. EBIT by c9% on average (mainly due to FX) and are now c10% below post-Q4 consensus. We have lowered our target price to SEK220 (240).
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Anders Idborg
- Karl Bokvist
- Lara Mohtadi
VOLV B VOLVO AB CLASS B
WRT1V WARTSILA OYJ ABP
ABB ABB LTD.
SAND SANDVIK AB
TREL B TRELLEBORG AB CLASS B
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
SKF B SKF AB CLASS B
HPOL B HEXPOL AB CLASS B
ALFA ALFA LAVAL AB
MTRS B MUNTERS GROUP
HEXA B HEXAGON AB
EPI A EPIROC AB
NIBE B NIBE INDUSTRIER AB
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB
ALIV SDB AUTOLIV INC.
- Mattias Holmberg
Set for spicy growth
Our recent field trip to India (visiting Volvo, Epiroc, Trelleborg, Autoliv and others) alongside our analysis suggests the country is set to take centre stage as a global manufacturing hub over the coming decade, shifting from being the sixth- to the third-largest end-market for the Swedish Industrial sector. India’s strong economic growth trajectory and favourable demographics mean the companies: 1) see double-digit growth as sustainable; 2) are pursuing manufacturing capacity expansions; and ...
ABB ABB LTD.
ELUX B ELECTROLUX AB CLASS B
SAND SANDVIK AB
HUSQ B HUSQVARNA AB CLASS B
ALV AUTOLIV INC.
TREL B TRELLEBORG AB CLASS B
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
DOM DOMETIC GROUP AB
LIAB LINDAB INTERNATIONAL AB
SKF B SKF AB CLASS B
HPOL B HEXPOL AB CLASS B
ALIG ALIMAK GROUP AB
ALFA ALFA LAVAL AB
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB CLASS A
EPRO B ELECTROLUX PROFESSIONAL
HEXA B HEXAGON AB
SYSR SYSTEMAIR AB
EPI A EPIROC AB
VOLCARb VOLVO CARS
BEIJ B BEIJER REF AB
NIBE B NIBE INDUSTRIER AB
- Mattias Holmberg
The hard rock bustle
Our review of 12 major miners’ guidance suggests 6% YOY capex growth in 2025, with growth project capex up 23%. Copper remains a key investment priority, accounting for c35% of miners’ capex, driven by global megatrends and supply constraints. This is particularly supportive for our BUY names: Metso (32% copper exposure), Epiroc (28%), and FLSmidth (21%), while Sandvik (HOLD) also stands to benefit, although its large metal-cutting tools business reduces its direct copper exposure to 12%.
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Anders Idborg
- Karl Bokvist
VOLV B VOLVO AB CLASS B
WRT1V WARTSILA OYJ ABP
ABB ABB LTD.
SAND SANDVIK AB
TREL B TRELLEBORG AB CLASS B
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
SKF B SKF AB CLASS B
HPOL B HEXPOL AB CLASS B
ALFA ALFA LAVAL AB
MTRS B MUNTERS GROUP
HEXA B HEXAGON AB
EPI A EPIROC AB
NIBE B NIBE INDUSTRIER AB
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB
ALIV SDB AUTOLIV INC.
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Anders Idborg
- Karl Bokvist
- Lara Mohtadi
VOLV B VOLVO AB CLASS B
WRT1V WARTSILA OYJ ABP
ABB ABB LTD.
SAND SANDVIK AB
TREL B TRELLEBORG AB CLASS B
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
SKF B SKF AB CLASS B
HPOL B HEXPOL AB CLASS B
ALFA ALFA LAVAL AB
MTRS B MUNTERS GROUP
HEXA B HEXAGON AB
EPI A EPIROC AB
NIBE B NIBE INDUSTRIER AB
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB
ALIV SDB AUTOLIV INC.
- Mattias Holmberg
Who stands to benefit?
A potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could unlock one of the largest reconstruction efforts in modern history. The World Bank estimates Ukraine will need USD486bn in rebuilding efforts over the next decade, but we estimate this would add only c2% to annual European construction spending. While the direct earnings effect may be modest, we expect the “rebuild Ukraine theme” to drive investor sentiment. We see Volvo, Epiroc, Hexagon, Metso, Hiab and ABB as some of the primary beneficia...
UPM UPM-KYMMENE OYJ
VOLV B VOLVO AB CLASS B
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
WRT1V WARTSILA OYJ ABP
ABB ABB LTD.
ELUX B ELECTROLUX AB CLASS B
SAND SANDVIK AB
STERV STORA ENSO OYJ CLASS R
FLS FLSMIDTH & CO. A/S
KEMIRA KEMIRA OYJ
ROCK B ROCKWOOL INTERNATIONAL A/S CLASS B
METSB METSA BOARD OYJ CLASS B
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
BILL BILLERUDKORSNAS AB
KCR KONECRANES OYJ
LIAB LINDAB INTERNATIONAL AB
ALIG ALIMAK GROUP AB
ALFA ALFA LAVAL AB
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB CLASS A
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
HEXA B HEXAGON AB
SYSR SYSTEMAIR AB
EPI A EPIROC AB
BEIJ B BEIJER REF AB
NIBE B NIBE INDUSTRIER AB
KALMAR KALMAR
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Anders Idborg
- Karl Bokvist
VOLV B VOLVO AB CLASS B
WRT1V WARTSILA OYJ ABP
ABB ABB LTD.
SAND SANDVIK AB
TREL B TRELLEBORG AB CLASS B
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
SKF B SKF AB CLASS B
HPOL B HEXPOL AB CLASS B
ALFA ALFA LAVAL AB
MTRS B MUNTERS GROUP
HEXA B HEXAGON AB
EPI A EPIROC AB
NIBE B NIBE INDUSTRIER AB
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB
ALIV SDB AUTOLIV INC.
- Delphine Brault
- Quentin Borie
- Thomas Zlowodzki
- Delphine Brault
- Quentin Borie
- Thomas Zlowodzki
- Delphine Brault
- Quentin Borie
- Delphine Brault
- Quentin Borie
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Anders Idborg
- Karl Bokvist
- Mattias Holmberg
Epiroc (Buy, TP: SEK240.00) - Mining strong, T&A dragging along
Equipment & Service ended 2024 solidly, with orders and sales up 5–6% organically YOY and the guidance of mining demand to remain strong. However, the Tools & Attachment (T&A) margin weakened further, with unquantified one-offs making it hard to assess the underlying run-rate. However, we remain confident in stronger end markets for T&A and for the cost actions to show effect through 2025e, and reiterate our BUY. We have raised our target price to SEK240 (230), but lowered our 2025–2026e adj. EB...
- Delphine Brault
- Quentin Borie
ODDO : 2025 : potentiellement un meilleur cru que 2024
L’année 2025 verra, selon nous, une poursuite de la croissance du CA (5% estimé vs 1.5% en 2024e) et de l’amélioration de la marge (53 pb vs 14 pb en 2024e), à l’exception possible de quelques sociétés (marge optimisée ou risque lié aux hausses des droits de douane). Si quelques thématiques devraient rester inchangées (exposition USA, Green Capex, datacenters, etc), d’autres émergeront (construction, discrete automation) ou accélèreront (semiconducteurs) au cours de l’année. Dans ce contexte, no...
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
KNEBV KONE OYJ CLASS B
ABB ABB LTD.
SAND SANDVIK AB
RXL REXEL SA
ALO ALSTOM SA
GEBN GEBERIT AG
SCHP SCHINDLER HOLDING AG PREF
DOKA DORMAKABA HOLDING AG
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
SKF B SKF AB CLASS B
TLGO TALGO SA
SIE SIEMENS AG
VOS VOSSLOH AG
CAF CONSTRUCCIONES Y AUXILIAR DE FERROCARRILES S.A.
KBX KNORR-BREMSE AG
SRAIL STADLER RAIL AG
ENR SIEMENS ENERGY AG
EPI A EPIROC AB
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB
- Delphine Brault
- Quentin Borie
ODDO : 2025: set to potentially be a better year than 2024
2025 is in our view likely to see sales continue to grow (5% estimated vs 1.5% in 2024e) and margins continue to improve (53bp vs 14bp in 2024e), with the possible exception of a few companies (optimised margins or tariff risk). While some themes are likely to endure (US exposure, green capex, data centres, etc.), others will emerge (construction, discrete automation) or accelerate (semiconductors) over the year. In this context, our Top Picks are Alstom, Assa Abloy, Siemens and SKF. And we upgr...
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
KNEBV KONE OYJ CLASS B
ABB ABB LTD.
SAND SANDVIK AB
RXL REXEL SA
ALO ALSTOM SA
GEBN GEBERIT AG
SCHP SCHINDLER HOLDING AG PREF
DOKA DORMAKABA HOLDING AG
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
SKF B SKF AB CLASS B
TLGO TALGO SA
SIE SIEMENS AG
VOS VOSSLOH AG
CAF CONSTRUCCIONES Y AUXILIAR DE FERROCARRILES S.A.
KBX KNORR-BREMSE AG
SRAIL STADLER RAIL AG
ENR SIEMENS ENERGY AG
EPI A EPIROC AB
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Anders Idborg
- Karl Bokvist
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