ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 09/25/2024

Iberdrola is the strategic benchmark in the universe of integrated utilities. Since 2001, the group has pursued a resilient strategy of profitable growth (renewables and networks), geographic expansion and attractive shareholder returns (TSR average annual of 17.9%). But based on the strong share's performance and the low residual upside on our target price of € 15.30, we have lowered our rating to Neutral vs Outperform. - ...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 25/09/2024

Iberdrola est la référence stratégique dans le secteur des utilities intégrées. Depuis 2001, le groupe poursuit une stratégie résiliente de croissance rentable (renouvelable et réseaux), d’expansion géographique et de rémunération attractive des actionnaires (TSR annuel moyen 17.9%). Toutefois, la forte performance du titre et le faible potentiel résiduel à notre objectif de cours de 15.3 €, nous amènent à abaisser l’opinion à Neutre vs Surperformance. - ...

Epiroc : Innovation capacities to confirm best-in-class status

>Best-in-class qualities rightly acknowledged by the market - Epiroc held a CMD yesterday in Las Vegas, at the MINExpo International fair, an event devoted to the mining industry and held every three years. Management provided an update on its positioning, its innovation capacities, the aftermarket, operating efficiency, and its corporate culture. The CMD was thus an opportunity for the group to highlight its best-in-class qualities, which are rightly acknowledged by ...

Epiroc : Un concentré d’innovation pour confirmer son statut de best-i...

>Caractéristiques de best-in-class reconnues à juste titre par le marché - Epiroc a organisé un CMD hier à Las Vegas, au salon MINExpo International, un évènement dédié à l’industrie minière ayant lieu tous les 3 ans. Le management du groupe est revenu sur son positionnement, ses capacités d’innovation, l’aftermarket, l’efficacité opérationnelle et sa culture d’entreprise. Ce CMD a donc été l’occasion pour le groupe de mettre en avant ses qualités de best-in-class, de...

Digital becomes meaningful

Heads-up for CMD on 24 September

Epiroc (Hold, TP: SEK205.00) - CMD and Q3 expectations

We expect Eprioc’s upcoming CMD to be mostly educational, but believe it will try to convince investors it has addressed the past year’s margin issues. A potential trigger could be if or when it reports margin improvements, but we have low conviction of this happening in Q3 (we are 1% below consensus on adj. EBIT, with the margin down 170bp YOY). We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK205 (225), having reduced our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by 6% on average.

The Capital Goods Data Miner - September 2024

OOur key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Atlas Copco, Metso. We are cautious on: Nibe, SKF, Wärtsilä.

The Capital Goods Data Miner - August 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Hexagon, Metso, Sandvik, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Nibe, Wärtsilä

Q2 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 07/22/2024

...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 22/07/2024

...

Epiroc : Margins continuing to deteriorate and to raise concerns

>Q2: order growth (1%) but lower revenues (-1%) and margins (-190bp) - Epiroc reported, on Friday during trading, its Q2 2024 results (see page 2), which slightly beat expectations on order intake, but fell some way short on adjusted EBIT (-5%).Order intake came in 1% higher in organic terms (css at -1%), underpinned by large orders (SEK 950m vs SEK 550m in Q2 2023). Revenues fell by 1% in organic terms (css stable).The adjusted EBIT margin narrowed by ...

Epiroc : Le recul de la marge se poursuit et continue d’inquiéter

>T2 : hausse des commandes (1%) mais recul du CA (-1%) et de la marge (-190 pb) - Epiroc a publié vendredi, en journée, ses résultats T2 2024 (voir 2éme page) qui étaient légèrement supérieurs aux attentes sur les prises de commandes, mais significativement inférieurs au niveau de l’EBIT ajusté (-5%).Les prises de commandes étaient en hausse de 1% en organique (css à -1%), soutenues notamment par des large orders (950 MSEK vs 550 MSEK au T2 2023). Le chiffre...

Epiroc (Hold, TP: SEK225.00) - Fool me once, fool me four times

With Q2 marking the fourth consecutive quarter of margin disappointment, we have lost confidence in the story and downgrade Epiroc to HOLD (BUY). Although management stated actions have been taken (reflected in restructuring costs in both divisions), which should help improve margins, we have lowered our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by 5–3%. At a 2025e EV/EBIT of c17x, we view the valuation as fair. We have cut our target price to SEK225 (245).

Mining brightens, Attachments dimmer

Another margin hit in T&A offsets improving mining. Adj. EBIT cut by 2%. Attractive sector, but Epiroc's premium raises the bar.

Another margin miss

Heads-up for report 19 July

Q2e: Pace of recovery in question

Orders, sales and earnings flat in Q2e and '24e. Stalling PMIs = '25e recovery risk, sector could flatline. Autoliv up to HOLD, Munters up to BUY; prefer Alfa, Metso, Sandvik.

Margin stabilisation possible?

Q2 results due on 19 July at 11:30 CET. We expect orders -1%, margin of 19.8% (21.6%). Order recovery around the corner, but still HOLD.