The Capital Goods Data Miner - May 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Hexagon, Metso, Sandvik, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Nibe, Wärtsilä

Sandvik AB: 2 directors

A director at Sandvik AB sold 5,000 shares at 227.800SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 42/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly show...

Copper is golden - Sandvik up to BUY

Copper and gold rally will turn order growth around in H2. Also secular drivers benefiting both Epiroc and Sandvik. Sandvik has highest value upside - up to BUY.

To catch up with improving fundamentals

Increasing Mining optimism after copper, gold rally. Adj. EBITA'24e-26e +2-3%. Upgrade to BUY (Hold)

Defending the premium good enough for now

Increasing Mining optimism after copper, gold rally. Adj. EBIT'24e-26e +2-4%. Maintained at HOLD.

Q1 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

The Q1 reports proved that sector companies could maintain record-high margins despite volume declines.

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/26/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 26/04/2024

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Metso : Progress on margin reflected with resilience in Q1

>Q1 2024 orders in line but margin below expectations - Metso reported its Q1 2024 results yesterday morning (see first take). They were in line with expectations on order intake, but below expectations on adjusted EBITA (-7%).Order intake was down -6% on an organic basis (consensus -5.8%), but up 10.5% sequentially, confirming the rebound in activity that the group was anticipating in the Aggregates division (particularly in the US). Sales were down -7% on ...

Metso : Les progrès sur la marge se ressentent avec sa résilience au T...

>T1 2024 avec des commandes en ligne mais en dessous des attentes sur la marge - Metso a publié hier matin ses résultats T1 2024 (voir first take) qui étaient en ligne avec les attentes sur les prises de commandes, mais en dessous sur l’EBITA ajusté (-7%).Les prises de commandes étaient en recul de -6% en organique (css à -5.8%), mais en hausse séquentielle de 10.5%, confirmant ainsi le rebond de l’activité qui avait été anticipé par le groupe dans la division A...

Metso (Buy, TP: EUR13.00) - Small profit miss, but positives too

Q1 profits missed in a seasonally small quarter but also included positives: solid profitability, and strong Aggregates and Service orders. We have cut our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c3% and reiterate our BUY and EUR13 target price. The valuation remains attractive, in our view.

Q1 miss, but also demonstration of resilience

Orders and margins fine, but equipment sales gap, EBITA -8%. Adj. EBITA'24e-'26e down 2-3%. Not worrying, and good end-market and value support - BUY

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/25/2024

Having flirted with the 495-point mark on Friday, which could have triggered an extension of the correction, the market has rebounded well since then. Our technical analysis highlights a configuration in which we are only at the start of a powerful rally. Target of 622 points for Stoxx 600 index (+11%) by the end of the year confirmed. Prefer banks to insurance companies in the short term. - ...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 25/04/2024

Après avoir frôlé vendredi la barre des 495 points qui aurait pu déclencher la poursuite de la correction, le marché a ensuite bien rebondi. Notre analyse technique met en lumière une configuration où nous ne serions qu’au début d’un rallye puissant. Objectif 622 points (+11%) d’ici à la fin de l’année confirmé sur le Stoxx 600. Préférer les banques aux assurances à court terme. - ...

Metso : Reassuring Q1 orders but results are below expectations

>Q1 2024: orders down -6%, sales down -7%, adjusted EBITA margin of 16.5% - Metso this morning reported Q1 2024 results that were 7% below expectations at adjusted EBITA level. Order intake was € 1,361m (consensus € 1,361), down -6% on an organic basis (consensus -5.8%). Orders were up sequentially in both divisions with improved market activity in Aggregates (driven by the US) and in Minerals (Services). Sales were down -7% (consensus -2.4%) on an organic b...

Metso : Reassuring Q1 orders but results are below expectations

>Q1 2024: orders down -6%, sales down -7%, adjusted EBITA margin of 16.5% - Metso this morning reported Q1 2024 results that were 7% below expectations at adjusted EBITA level. Order intake was € 1,361m (consensus € 1,361), down -6% on an organic basis (consensus -5.8%). Orders were up sequentially in both divisions with improved market activity in Aggregates (driven by the US) and in Minerals (Services). Sales were down -7% (consensus -2.4%) on an organic b...

Deliveries fall short, margins hold up

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 24/04/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/24/2024

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Epiroc : Le recul de la marge inquiète avant l’intégration de Stanley ...

>T1 2024 : marge d’EBIT ajusté en recul de 260pb à 20.4% - Epiroc a publié hier matin ses résultats T1 2024 (voir first take) qui étaient en dessous des attentes sur les prises de commandes (-5%) et sur l’EBIT ajusté (-4%).Les prises de commandes étaient en recul de 3% en organique (css à -1.2%), impactées notamment par moins de large orders (400 MSEK vs 900 MSEK au T1 2023). Le chiffre d’affaires était en hausse de 3% en organique (css à 2.7%).La marge...