Nobia AB: 1 director

A director at Nobia AB bought 89,803 shares at 3.255SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 50/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showi...

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum (Buy, TP: SEK365.00) - Haemophilia the highli...

Q1 sales beat our forecast by 5% and adj. EBITA outperformed by 8%. Overall, we believe the highlight in the report was the stronger haemophilia result than expected, with solid growth in Altuvoct and a smaller decline for Elocta than forecast. The weak spot was Vonjo sales, which missed our estimate by 28% and consensus by 29%, with management citing stocking issues. We reiterate our BUY and SEK365 target price.

Efficient execution

Q1'25: delivering on EBITA

Heads-up for report 29 April

Hit the wall, lost the map

Boliden (Buy, TP: SEK480.00) - Earnings growth is on

Although Q1 earnings for the smelters and mines were slightly below our forecasts, we believe this was offset by constructive outlook comments for the rest of 2025 and explicit guidance that metal grades for the Kevitsa and Aitik mines should be picking up in 2026. We have cut our 2026–2027e EBITDA by 5%–4%, mainly due to slightly changed assumptions for FX and weaker prices and terms. We believe Boliden continues to offer impressive earnings growth and attractive multiples beyond the current ye...

Massive miss as customers delay investments

Sales 40% below, EBITDA +60% below. Orders -8% vs cons. Sales hit by customers choosing to delay or defer investments. Cons '25e EBIT likely down 30-40%. Stock down +15%

Boliden (Buy, TP: SEK460.00) - ‘Self-help’ and diversification

Reflecting the deterioration in the macro outlook and our lower metal price assumptions, we have cut our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 12–13%. However, we still expect healthy earnings, seeing relatively limited downside risk thanks to unique diversification across base and precious metals, and steady earnings growth in our forecast horizon from investments, as well as better metal grades at the Aitik mine from late this year. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK460 (500).

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK6.70) - Elevated risk to 2025e sales

We remain cautious ahead of the Q1 results, expecting a headwind to sales from pull-ins in Q4 and as tariff concerns and economic uncertainty are likely to slow investment activity, exacerbating what we view as a subdued sales outlook for AutoStore. While we have raised our Q1e orders on an FX tailwind and opex-based projects, we do not expect any improvements in underlying demand. We reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to NOK6.7 (9.0) on lower earnings and asymmetric downside risk ...

Meagre Q1 ahead, but long-term case intact

Tariffs curbing investments

FLSmidth (Buy, TP: DKK330.00) - Increased risks

For the Q1 results (due on 14 May, details TBA), we focus on orders and outlook comments. Our Q1e Mining orders and clean EBITA are below post-Q4 consensus. We have cut our 2026–2027e clean EPS by c13% on average on lower-than-expected order announcements, lowered demand views and FX. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to DKK330 (430).

Solid growth momentum into 2025e

Helped by benign weather with few storms, we expect solid underwriting across the Nordic P&C sector for Q1, with underlying performance further supported by earned repricing momentum and abating claims inflation. The sector is trading at an attractive average 2026e P/E of c15.2x and we see solid capital distribution prospects. We reiterate our recommendations on all our covered sector names and highlight Tryg as our top pick.