We are putting our coverage of the following stocks UNDER REVIEW, with immediate effect. We caution against using the forecasts, ratings and price target guidance issued previously on these stocks: Addiko Bank Alro Arion banki Bogdanka Cognor Holding DataWalk Gradus Grenevia Islandsbanki Kety TeraPlast
EME Equity Market – February 2023 Market performance – Greece and Czechia continue with good momentum; Turkey resumes rally. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 4.9% mom in EUR terms and 2.4% mom in USD in February. The Greek ASE and the Czech PX were, again, the best performers, adding 10.4% mom and 7.6% mom in EUR terms, respectively; while the rally resumed in Turkey, with the ISE 30 index gaining 7.3% mom in EUR terms. There was a somewhat muted performance in Hungary and Romania, with the BUX a...
HEADLINES: • Greek banks: heading for a bumper year (Alpha Bank, Eurobank, NBG and Piraeus Bank stay BUY) • Turkey strategy: Kahramanmaras earthquake - the aftermath • Romgaz: 4Q22 trading statement • Tupras: to pay dividend of TRY 45.41/share • Islandsbanki: 4Q22 highlights and further colour on potential merger with Kvika • Bucharest Stock Exchange: 4Q22 prelims - shaky end to the year, with inflation in the driving seat NEGATIVE • Poland macro: President Duda sends justice bill back to C...
HEADLINES: • CTP: attractive growth story, but high LTV a risk (HOLD - initiation of coverage) • Alior Bank: publishes key targets for 2023-24E strategy • Islandsbanki: thoughts on Kvika's letter on potential merger talks NEUTRAL • CCC: 4Q22 prelims - soft, as expected NEGATIVE • European Oil and Gas Monthly: January 2023 • InPost/Allegro: DHL and AliExpress joining forces in Poland NEGATIVE • Romgaz: new gas-fired power plant to be finalised in 2H24E • MOL: Hungarian National Bank approves ...
Islandsbanki (ISB) has announced that it has received an offer from Kvika banki, to enter into merger talks. Kvika is an overall small player, with a stronger position in insurance and asset management than in banking. According to the release, Kvika’s motivation is to create a bank with a more optimal revenue mix. ISB’s board will review the letter to decide on the next steps this week. We believe it is premature to have a strong opinion on the merger, as key elements, such as valuation, taxati...
EME Equity Market – December 2022 Market performance – Turkey closed the year by outperforming the other markets, yet again. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.0% mom in EUR terms and 5.9% mom in USD in December. Turkey was, again, the best performer, with the ISE30 index adding 6.3% mom in EUR terms and 10.8% mom in local currency terms. Positive performances were recorded by the WIG20 (+3.1% EUR / 3.2% lcl mom) and the ASE indices (+1.9% EUR mom) as well. On the other side, the Hungarian BUX de...
HEADLINES: • Icelandic Banks: the outliers (initiating on Arion banki with a BUY and Islandsbanki with a HOLD) • OTP Bank: should fare well, absent more negative events (upgraded to BUY) • LPP: 3Q22 below expectations on costs pressure; strong Black Friday sales; FY22E guidance maintained NEGATIVE • US macro: Fed sticking to its hawkish message • NLB Group: constitutional court annuls FX law • Addiko Bank: Slovenian Constitutional Court rejects retroactive Swiss Franc Law POSITIVE • Mytilin...
Iceland resumed its journey as a frontier market last year. On our calculations, Arion banki and Islandsbanki have 1.4% and 1.0% respective weights in the MSCI Frontier markets index. We believe the Icelandic banks are a good way to diversify away from the EM/FM banks’ risks, which are tied to currency, interest rates, geopolitics and commodity prices. These banks have decent earnings power, despite their small scale and tightly regulated capital. The leverage on the banks’ balance sheets is as ...
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