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Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR280, +58%) IHS Towers (Buy, TP: $10, +26%) MTN / IHS...

MTN announced today that it is at an advanced stage of discussions with IHS to acquire the 75% shares in IHS it does not already own.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

EM Tower Trends Q3 CY25 review: Solid quarter, especially in Africa

Tower revenue trends were slightly slower across the board except for Indus Towers as it benefited again from VIL’s network catch up spend. EBITDA margins were roughly stable across EM except in Indonesia which faces the near-term pressure of the XL-Smartfren consolidation. Africa continue to perform well and the LatAm Towers space had a decent Q3.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Another great quarter, upgrade AAF, MTN,...

Q3 was another great quarter for the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) operators with YoY service revenue growth in USD reaching >30% and rising EBITDA margins.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Nigerian Telcos Q3 25 review: Real revenue growth remains 40%

Q3 was another very strong quarter for the Nigerian Telco market with EBITDA more than doubling in local and real revenue growth stable at 40%.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos & Towers 2025 wrapped. NSR GEM 2026 Top-10 unveiled:...

2025 was when the EM Telco bull market really took off. Two of our top picks returned >100% and four more 50%+. We make one change to our top picks for 2026 from 2025, introducing Megacable in exchange for IHS Towers. In a separate note out today we run through the Themes that we think will drive performance in 2026.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos & Towers Themes and Top picks for 2026

EM Telcos have been strong for some time, but 2025 was a banner year. Multiples have expanded somewhat, but we remain bullish, as we think EM Telcos operate on a long cycle driven by market structure which has now definitively turned up We therefore see EM Telcos in a true stealth bull market as conditions still seem ripe for the best to exhibit pricing power and hence GDP+ revenue growth and rising ROIC. This note explains the key themes we see for 2026.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos Fish in a barrel? 8 Themes that drove EM Telcos in 2...

2025 was a banner year for EM Telcos, following on from a good 2023 and 2024. As we head towards the New Year we thought it might be useful to highlight a few of the thematic pieces we wrote last year that we think help to highlight why EM Telcos are in a clear and sustained bull market and why therefore we are confident that 2026 will be another good year for investors in the space, as fundamentals continue to look much stronger than in the past. I hope you enjoy reading these and happy holiday...

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos & Japan DC exposure, future developments and valuati...

EM & Japanese Telcos have more DC capacity than those in other regions. In this short note, we look at the current and future Data Center (DC) capacity for the telcos in our coverage as well as the potential valuation for these assets, in an attempt to contextualise this exposure.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos & Towers Blow out Q3 results drive another great mon...

EM Telco earnings season was extremely strong, and with 8 of our 10 picks reporting this month, our picks rose 6.8% on average in November and are now up 80% YTD. With Singtel having strongly outperformed, Bharti we swap the latter in for the former; this note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare
Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare
Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare
Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos & Towers Back to Black: NSR GEM Top-10 November ‘25 ...

Our portfolio of Top Picks was higher again in October, and now up 69% ytd. This month we make no changes to our top picks. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR245, +42%) MTN Nigeria – Q3 25: Another very strong ...

MTN Nigeria has reported a very strong set of Q3 results, supported by the price increase still.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos When does Digital drive a re-rating? Upgrade VEON, V...

We analyze how much revenue EM Telcos are generating from digital businesses, and therefore at what point they are likely to make the transition from being “Telcos with digital assets” to “Digital first”. We use this to predict when the market is likely to re-rate those exposed, and as a result make multiple upgrades across our GEM Telcos.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR220, +31%) MTN Ghana – Q3 25: Slower but still solid

MTN Ghana has reported a slower but still solid set of Q3 results.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos Why are governments allowing mobile price hikes?

We note EM Governments & regulators appear to have become much more relaxed about mobile ARPU growing above inflation relative to the recent past. Why is this? This note gives one possible explanation.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

South African Telcos Solid H1 but expect prepaid weakness; CY25 H1 re...

Despite a small slowdown in MSR trends, the SA market saw further improvements in total revenue growth, EBITDA and OpFCF margins in H1. Telkom continued to gain revenue share in mobile, driven by prepaid while Vodacom continued to gain share in fixed. Trends on the SA market have been improving since two years ago, helped by the reduction in loadshedding and an improvement in the macro environment.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Another good performance; Q2 25 review

The Sub-Saharan African (SSA) operators performed well again in Q2 with service revenue trends accelerating further, and stable OpFCF margins. MTN was the outperformer in terms of both local currency and $ top line performance in Q2, Airtel performed well too. Nigeria has contributed meaningfully this quarter, with local currency growth there accelerating to above 60%. The full effect of the price increase in Nigeria has helped and we expect another strong performance

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos & Towers First down month, AMX into the Top-10 for T...

After 8 extremely strong months, September bucked the trend. 6 of our Top Picks saw profit taking with only Airtel Africa, Millicom, Telefonica Brasil and LILAC posting positive returns. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. Having strongly outperformed we switch out Millicom for AMX which we now see as a cheaper, lower risk, way to play Latin American telcos.

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