Advanced Soltech (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Discontinuing coverage

We have discontinued coverage of Advanced Soltech. Our last published recommendation, target price and estimates should no longer be relied upon.

Advanced Soltech (Hold, TP: SEK18.00) - Liquidity an uncertainty

Liquidity has come under pressure as refinancing has taken longer than Advanced Soltech expected, the cost of debt continues to rise and investments have continued. The focus remains on refinancing, and we see a risk that new equity may be needed, depending on the pace of investments and working-capital movements. We expect high share-price volatility until this is resolved, with the outcome of the financing potentially having a large impact on our NAV. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our ta...

Northern Lights

Advanced Soltech (Hold, TP: SEK22.00) - Help from Chinese authorities

Q2 was another quarter with an EBITDA miss versus our estimate on lower realised prices and higher costs. On the positive side, FCF was boosted by Chinese authorities paying a large part of Advanced Soltech’s VAT receivable to stimulate the economy, which released some liquidity. In the coming months, we believe the focus will be on the ongoing refinancing of its bonds, on which it has made some progress, before we enter seasonally soft quarters in Q4–Q1. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK22 target p...

Advanced Soltech (Hold, TP: SEK22.00) - Capital still a constraint on ...

Advanced Soltech is continuing to build its pipeline, with contract awards for 35MW and a strategic cooperation for 100MW over five years announced in Q2. In our view, the main obstacle to growth remains capital constraints. For Q2, we forecast EBITDA of SEK49m, and we still consider the main uncertainty to be the impact from Covid-19 lockdowns in China. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SEK22 (32).

Advanced Soltech (Hold, TP: SEK32.00) - Hit by Chinese Covid-19 outbre...

The company has again been hit by Covid-19 in China, delaying completion of installed capacity (we estimate 216MW at end-Q1, up from 207MW at end-Q4) and reducing realised prices. We believe a prolonged lockdown in China would likely have a further negative impact. We forecast Q1 EBITDA of SEK26m (SEK22m in Q4), helped by FX. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SEK32 (33).

Advanced Soltech (Hold, TP: SEK33.00) - Faster re-rating than expected

The Q4 EBITDA miss versus our estimate and high share-issue costs have left less capital available for investments. However, management’s focus this year is refinancing the outstanding bonds, which we believe could be hampered by current market volatility. We acknowledge that a successful refinancing at a lower interest rate and prospects of higher realised prices could offer potential upside to our fair value, but have downgraded the stock to HOLD (BUY) on the faster re-rating than we expected,...

Advanced Soltech (Buy, TP: SEK34.00) - Hit from multiple angles

Advanced Soltech missed our Q4 EBITDA forecast, mainly on lower realised prices (a higher share sold to grid, and mix effects), although production was above our estimates. That said, the share-issue cost was much higher than we had expected, reducing its ability to raise installed capacity by c15MW (with debt financing). We expect consensus EBITDA to come down by c5%, and consider a negative share price reaction as warranted.

Advanced Soltech (Buy, TP: SEK34.00) - Trading in line with our core N...

The stock has taken a hit YTD, reflecting steadily increasing cost inflation in the sector, rising interest rates, and the sector being out of favour. However, we believe this offers an attractive entry point, with the stock trading marginally above our core NAV of SEK26/share, assuming an 8.0% WACC (previously 7.0%) implying limited growth in installed capacity over 2025–2034e. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) but cut our target price to SEK34 (64) on the higher WACC and lower growth assumptions.

Advanced Soltech - Initiation of coverage - Positioned for China’s gre...

In our view, Advanced Soltech is well-placed to benefit from China’s clean energy growth, aided by its solar-as-a-service business model and strong track record, a strong local network through its Chinese partner, and a compelling business case to help its customers cut energy costs. However, we believe strong growth is already priced in, and initiate coverage with a HOLD and a SEK64 target price based on our NAV with 80MW annual growth post-2024 at 7.0% WACC.