reports
- Douglas Lindahl
Beijer Ref (Buy, TP: SEK165.00) - A seasonally small quarter
We estimate Q1 sales of SEK8,709m, organic growth of c5% YOY, and adj. EBITA of SEK795m (6% below consensus). We have lowered our 2025–2027e adj. EBITA by c9% on average (mainly due to FX, but also somewhat reduced demand estimates). We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK165 (182) on our updated valuation and estimates.
- Mattias Holmberg
Set for spicy growth
Our recent field trip to India (visiting Volvo, Epiroc, Trelleborg, Autoliv and others) alongside our analysis suggests the country is set to take centre stage as a global manufacturing hub over the coming decade, shifting from being the sixth- to the third-largest end-market for the Swedish Industrial sector. India’s strong economic growth trajectory and favourable demographics mean the companies: 1) see double-digit growth as sustainable; 2) are pursuing manufacturing capacity expansions; and ...
ABB ABB LTD.
ELUX B ELECTROLUX AB CLASS B
SAND SANDVIK AB
HUSQ B HUSQVARNA AB CLASS B
ALV AUTOLIV INC.
TREL B TRELLEBORG AB CLASS B
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
DOM DOMETIC GROUP AB
LIAB LINDAB INTERNATIONAL AB
SKF B SKF AB CLASS B
HPOL B HEXPOL AB CLASS B
ALIG ALIMAK GROUP AB
ALFA ALFA LAVAL AB
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB CLASS A
EPRO B ELECTROLUX PROFESSIONAL
HEXA B HEXAGON AB
SYSR SYSTEMAIR AB
EPI A EPIROC AB
VOLCARb VOLVO CARS
BEIJ B BEIJER REF AB
NIBE B NIBE INDUSTRIER AB
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Karl Bokvist
- Mattias Holmberg
Who stands to benefit?
A potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could unlock one of the largest reconstruction efforts in modern history. The World Bank estimates Ukraine will need USD486bn in rebuilding efforts over the next decade, but we estimate this would add only c2% to annual European construction spending. While the direct earnings effect may be modest, we expect the “rebuild Ukraine theme” to drive investor sentiment. We see Volvo, Epiroc, Hexagon, Metso, Hiab and ABB as some of the primary beneficia...
UPM UPM-KYMMENE OYJ
VOLV B VOLVO AB CLASS B
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
WRT1V WARTSILA OYJ ABP
ABB ABB LTD.
ELUX B ELECTROLUX AB CLASS B
SAND SANDVIK AB
STERV STORA ENSO OYJ CLASS R
FLS FLSMIDTH & CO. A/S
KEMIRA KEMIRA OYJ
ROCK B ROCKWOOL INTERNATIONAL A/S CLASS B
METSB METSA BOARD OYJ CLASS B
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
BILL BILLERUDKORSNAS AB
KCR KONECRANES OYJ
LIAB LINDAB INTERNATIONAL AB
ALIG ALIMAK GROUP AB
ALFA ALFA LAVAL AB
ATCO A ATLAS COPCO AB CLASS A
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
HEXA B HEXAGON AB
SYSR SYSTEMAIR AB
EPI A EPIROC AB
BEIJ B BEIJER REF AB
NIBE B NIBE INDUSTRIER AB
KALMAR KALMAR
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Karl Bokvist
- Douglas Lindahl
Beijer Ref (Buy, TP: SEK182.00) - Far from cooling off
We view the Q4 results as overall neutral given the strong organic growth (all businesses) but weaker margin. As a result, we have reduced our 2025–2026e adj. EBITA by 1% on average. Growth is robust going into 2025, and management appears optimistic about the M&A pipeline. We reiterate our BUY and SEK182 target price, and continue to see Beijer Ref as a strong growth story.
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Karl Bokvist
- Douglas Lindahl
Beijer Ref (Buy, TP: SEK182.00) - Upgraded to BUY
We have upgraded Beijer Ref to BUY (HOLD) as we see an opportunity in this potential double-digit earnings growth story at what we view as a reasonable valuation given the recent share price weakness (-c14% in the past six months). We expect the OEM business and potential M&A to remain the main growth engines for the story and note a solid balance sheet and cash flows. We have left our adj. EBITA broadly unchanged for 2025–2026e, but have updated our valuation and raised our target price to SEK1...
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Karl Bokvist
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Karl Bokvist
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Karl Bokvist
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Karl Bokvist
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Karl Bokvist
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Anders Idborg
- Karl Bokvist
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Karl Bokvist
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Karl Bokvist
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Karl Bokvist
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Karl Bokvist
- ABGSC Capital Goods Research
- Karl Bokvist
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