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ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Alice Beer
  • Oscar Rönnkvist

Small streams make great rivers

Q1: growth recovery and margin improvements with solid FCF. We tweak our '24e sales and adj. EBITA estimates. Share is trading at 8.6x '24e EV/EBITA adj.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Alice Beer
  • Oscar Rönnkvist
Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Oscar Rönnkvist

Careium - Still strong on top line, but UK a major concern

15% FX adj. organic growth looks reassuring Adj. EBIT margin of -9.1% pressured by the UK Estimate cuts reflect more cautious expectations

Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Oscar Rönnkvist

Careium - UK cost pressure continue

Sales 1% above ABGSCe – 15% organic growth ex. FX Weak margins mainly explained by UK cost pressure Ambition to increase annual EBIT by 60-80m by year-end

Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Oscar Rönnkvist

Careium - Awaiting visible UK synergies

Q3e: sales up 23% y-o-y but margins remain pressured We expect 2023e to show improvements Small positive sales revisions, but costs up as well

Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Oscar Rönnkvist

Careium - A slight postponement to the margin recovery

Strong top line, 3% above ABGSC Underlying profitability weak, set to improve from now CEO announced he is leaving

Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Oscar Rönnkvist

Careium - Strong sales but weaker profitability

Sales came in 3% above ABGSCe Normalised EBIT of SEK -6.9m (ABGSCe 1.7m) Trading at 9x ‘23e EV/EBITA on our current estimates

Oscar Rönnkvist ... (+3)
  • Oscar Rönnkvist
  • Rebecka Gärderup
  • Simon Granath

Careium - Growth in Q2, but margin will improve later

Q2 report due on 15 July Expect continued y-o-y growth, but not as strong as in Q1 Lower ’22 EBITA estimates, trading at 9x ‘23e EV/EBITA

Rebecka Gärderup ... (+2)
  • Rebecka Gärderup
  • Simon Granath

Careium - Strong top line in Q1

Sales +10% vs. ABG & adj. EBIT margin 2% vs. ABG 4% Small negative GM and positive NRI adjustments Trading at EV/EBITA 11x on 2023e

Rebecka Gärderup ... (+2)
  • Rebecka Gärderup
  • Simon Granath

Careium - Strong top-line growth, +14% org. growth

Sales up 29% y-o-y, but pressured profitability Write down of account receivable of SEK 15m due to UK UK-restructuring to improve profitability by SEK 35-40m

Rebecka Gärderup ... (+2)
  • Rebecka Gärderup
  • Simon Granath

Careium - All eyes on synergies

Q1 report due on 29 April 08.00 CET Estimates intact, but we increase our UK NRI assumptions We expect the synergies to be visible at the end of ’22

Rebecka Gärderup ... (+2)
  • Rebecka Gärderup
  • Simon Granath

Careium - Headwind in its first quarter standing alone

Sales in line, but challenges in the UK lower EBIT ’21-‘24e sales and adj. EBITDA CAGRs of 9% and 26% Share trading at ’22e-’23e EV/EBITA of 13.5x-8.2x

Rebecka Gärderup ... (+2)
  • Rebecka Gärderup
  • Simon Granath

Careium - Sales and GM slightly above expectations

Sales grew 2% organically, +4% vs. ABGSCe GM 41% above our expectations of 40% We expect cons to slightly come down

Rebecka Gärderup ... (+2)
  • Rebecka Gärderup
  • Simon Granath

Careium - Expecting synergies in 2022

Q4 results due on 17 February We expect sales of SEK 157m and adj. EBIT of SEK 6m Share trading at EV/EBITA 13x-10x in ‘22e-‘23e

Rebecka Gärderup ... (+2)
  • Rebecka Gärderup
  • Simon Granath

Careium - A spin-off to care about

A leader in a fast-growing market with an M&A agenda ’20-’23e adj. EBIT CAGR of 26% Fair value range of SEK 31-44, 12x-18x ‘23e EV/EBITA

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