Renewable Weekly – 14 June 2024

This week, we look at the effect of AI/data centres on power demand.

Renewable Weekly – 6 June 2024

On aggregate, the R&C stocks outperperformed the MSCI Nordic by ~1% throughout the reporting season (16 Apr to 6 Jun).

Renewable Weekly – 23 May 2024

This week we highlight the tight offshore wind transport and installation (T&I) segment.

Still some start-up problems, but soon over

Gangway problem continues to weigh on estimates, but short-term issues should be behind us shortly. A clear BUY, six-month TP of NOK 33

Start-up issues, but improvements ahead

Renewable Weekly – 15 May 2024

This week, we take a preliminary look at Vestas' Q2 announced order intake quarter to date.

Renewable Weekly – 8 May 2024

This week, we look at key takeaways from GWEC's 2024 Global Wind Report.

Renewable Weekly – 29 April 2024

This week, we summarise our Q1 previews for the sector.

Edda Wind (Buy, TP: NOK35.00) - The C/SOV market leader

We forecast Q2 EBITDA of EUR3.8m (no proper consensus). The first two newbuilds commenced operations in Q2, taking the active fleet to four. Including newbuilds, the company has a fleet of 14, making it the market leader for C/SOVs. In our NAV calculations, we have increased our CSOV replacement cost to EUR67m (60m), but after fully incorporating the dilutive equity raise earlier this year, we have reduced our NAV to NOK40/share (48). We continue to like the equity story, and we reiterate our BU...

Havfram wins parts of Hornsea 3 turbine work

Havfram today announced its maiden newbuild turbine installation contract for Osted’s Hornsea 3 project. Following recent talks about potential Hornsea 3 delays or even cancellation, we consider it positive for the industry that the project is progressing (in particular for Cadeler, which has the foundation installation contract). Havfram did not comment on contract economics, but as this job is its maiden newbuild contract and provides for decent duration (1 year), we see annualised EBITDA of c...

Edda Wind (Buy, TP: NOK40.00) - Waiting for newbuilds

We forecast Q4 EBITDA of EUR1.4m (no consensus), in line with Q3. With most of its fleet still under construction, we believe focus will be on progress of its newbuilds and market outlook. We have lowered our 2023e EBITDA by 20% to reflect later start-up of its first newbuilds following gangway delivery delays in December. The longer-term story is intact in our view, supported by solid market fundamentals. We find the stock attractively valued at an implied EV per vessel of EUR43m (25% below our...

Edda Wind - From 2 vessels to 7 over the next 12 months

Strong earnings momentum ahead A super strong CSOV/SOV market Attractive valuation BUY, TP to NOK 40 (35)

Edda Wind (Buy, TP: NOK40.00) - Equity story unchanged

Q3 was below our expectation as costs increased on the chartered-in frontrunner in Germany. However, we see no material impact on our valuation as the frontrunner is expected to remain on the project only until early 2023, when the Edda Breeze newbuild is scheduled to take over. Pricing for its CSOV newbuild of low-EUR60m was largely as we expected given yard-price trends in recent quarters. We calculate an implied EV per vessel of EUR45m, representing a 20% discount at the EV level to our fair ...

Northern Lights

Edda Wind (Buy, TP: NOK40.00) - NAV supports attractive valuation

Q2 EBITDA was in line with our estimate. The newbuild deliveries are delayed due to gangway supply issues, but we maintain our favourable long-term view on the C/SOV sector. We have incorporated higher replacement costs in our current NAV calculation, which has increased our NAV/share by NOK5, to NOK45. On this basis, the shares are trading at an attractive P/NAV of 0.5x. We reiterate our BUY and NOK40 target price.

Edda Wind - Vessel delays - a setback, but little NPV impact

Vessel delays hurt ’22e and ’23e, but… …the NPV impact is less than NOK1/share BUY on weakness, but 6m TP to NOK 35 (45)

Edda Wind - Q2 as expected, but more vessel delays

EBITDA EUR 1.8m vs. ABGSC 1.6 (no good cons) Two first new builds ~6m delayed – awaiting gangways A slight negative share price reaction likely

Edda Wind - Market prices indicate 25-50% upside to NAV

Q1 shows steady operations and newbuilds on track Mark-to-market NAV is NOK 37-45/share A clear BUY, TP unchanged at NOK 45

Powerpoint Sector Report - Renewable Weekly - Theme of the week: Nordi...

Great growth opportunities for Nordic renewable companies Offshore wind and energy storage are key for the transition Solid week for Nordic renewable shares

Powerpoint Sector Report - Renewable weekly - Theme of the week: Renew...

Comparing renewable company growth targets Companies have ambitious targets Solid week for Nordic renewable shares last week